Yituo Finance-Intensive risk events and resurgence of gold market turbulence

Last week's marketgoldThe buying power is still relatively strong, especially after US President elect Trump's press conference on Wednesday, when the US dollar faced a significant pullback to boost safe haven gold and the strengthening of the yen. Currently, from a technical perspective, the adjustment of the US dollar has not been in place, and the upward movement of gold is insufficient. Therefore, it is highly likely that gold may maintain a broad and volatile trend this week. However, this week's risk is time intensive,1month17British Prime Minister Theresa May announced her Brexit plan, outlining her views on Brexit. Previously, she had repeatedly stated that she would3At the end of the month, the official trigger for the50Article. If it were to forcefully withdraw from Europe, it would not only be a heavy blow to the pound and euro, but also have a certain boosting effect on gold.1month20At the inauguration ceremony of President Trump, it is expected that he will provide a detailed explanation of the infrastructure construction plan at that time, which is likely to drive asset prices back up and weaken gold prices.

In addition to Aunt Mei and Trump taking the stage respectively, UK inflation data will also be released at the beginning of the week. On Wednesday, there will be events in France, the eurozone, and the United States12Monthly inflation data, and the Bank of Canada will also release interest rate decisions; Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will give public speeches on Thursday and Friday, as well as the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday. In short, this week's market is by no means flat.
As of1month10In the current week, American productsfuturesTrading CommitteeCFTCThe weekly position report shows that the long positions in gold have increased5145Hand, the short positions have decreased7787Hand, net long position increased12932Hand to109482Hand; And the net long position of silver has also increased3320Hand to64601Hand. However, both long and short positions in the US dollar have decreased, while net long positions have slightly increased4081Hand to323258Hand.

Technical deconstruction--See the following analysis:

S&P500 Daily line

In last week's weekly review, it was suggested to go long on the S&P, and the weekly trend showed a slight upward trend. The next target position is at 100%1.270The expansion location can be attempted in the2265Long position S&P, in2290Choose to leave nearby.

Spot Gold Daily Chart        

Spot gold continued to rebound and hit last week1200Not successfully stabilizing, there is a potential risk of becoming a duo in the short term, but the prerequisite is not to break through1206The front height of the position. My personal opinion on the future market of gold may tend to fluctuate around the Spring Festival. Mainly because since1370In the downward structure of high-level gold,2The waves clearly look very simple, which means they are4The adjustment structure of waves is relatively complex. Looking at the upward trend of gold in the future1220Nearby, below is still the previous low point at1120The broad oscillation trend in the vicinity.

crude oil 4Hour chart

Last week, crude oil experienced a technical correction trend, and there is still a high probability of downward adjustment at the beginning of the week. The obvious resistance position is52.8Below, you can try to enter the market by shorting at this position. The profit target below is50Nearby. Upon reaching the target location50In the near future, we will pay attention to the further trend of crude oil based on fundamental news. If the production reduction agreement is not reached, the crude oil may undergo a deep adjustment.

Yituo Finance  R&D Department
Zhang Yuanyuan