Yituo Finance-Inflation data and the European Bank meeting ignited this week's market trend

　　USD IndexIn the just concluded week, the market continued to decline and adjust, while non US varieties took the opportunity to rebound, and the fundamentals were slightly flat. In the coming week, with the release of inflation data from several major economies and the interest rate decisions of the two central banks, the market volatility will still be significant.
The US dollar has recently taken advantage of the stability of monetary policy to consolidate its market situation. Although there will be a Federal Reserve interest rate meeting at the end of this month, there will be no press conference following this meeting, and the possibility of changing interest rates is extremely low, so the impact on the market is limited.

On the Eurozone side, the interest rate meeting held this week will mainly focus on continuing to discuss whether there may be changes to the plan to extend bond purchases, and the possibility of changes to the just decided plan to extend purchases is also almost non-existent. Therefore, the impact of this ECB meeting on the market should not be significant.

The focus of this week is still on the changes in inflation data, especially the upcoming announcement by the US on WednesdayCPIData, Previous Values1.7%, expected2.1%The changes are significant, and if it meets expectations, the expectation of a faster pace of interest rate hikes this year will intensify, which is bullishUSD Index. At present, the market operation is relatively stable, and with the recent interest rate hike, there is a high possibility that the data will fall below expectations.

Below is a summary of some important data from this week, as follows:

On Monday, (!) Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Day, some markets were closed early.

On Tuesday, (!!) the UK side announcedCPI、PPIAnd retail price index data.

Wednesday, (!!!!) EurozoneCPI； U.S.ACPIdata Bank of Canada interest rate resolution.

On Thursday, (!!!!) the European Central Bank decided on interest rates, followed by a press conference by the President;crude oilAPIInventory data, next day at midnightEIAInventory data.

Friday, (!!!) China Q4GDP; Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Huck of Philadelphia, United States; CanadaCPIdata The next morning, data from the drilling platform of American Oil Service Company.

Specific technical trend analysis,USD IndexThe weekly structure has produced a depth drop.

After a strong rebound last week, the weekly structure of the euro against the US dollar should continue to rise this week. The resistance level above should be in the middle of the Bollinger Bands and early platform lows1.0820On the front line, you can try to short at this resistance level,1.0860Stop loss.

The weekly structure of the pound against the US dollar continues to adjust, with a rebound after a low opening at the beginning of the week. There is no sign of an end to the current downward trend, and it is still possible to continue exploring and testing the downward shadow support of the previous bottom. The first key support level in the short term is two-thirds of the downward shadow1.1900On the front line, therefore the operation can wait for the rebound resistance level to short to that target level. Specifically, in1.2100Short selling nearby1.2140Stop loss,1.1910Stop surplus.

The weekly trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen has experienced a deep decline. Due to the large increase in the previous period, the current adjustment has not fully digested the previous overbought indicators
Continuing downward testing before10The weekly moving average has a high probability and can rebound dynamically5Weekly moving average115.4Continuing to short sell on the front line,116Stop loss,110.8Stop surplus.

After a deep decline in the weekly structure of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, it fell below the support of the trend line and began to show signs of declineCThere is a possibility of a wave falling structure, but the daily structure requires a rebound, so we are waiting for a rebound test5Short the weekly moving average with light positions and fixed stop loss to control risk.

Yituo Finance   Chen Yunbo