Ideas: The Federal Reserve Delays ReductionQEThe impact is still ongoing Gold prices continue to rise2013.10.28

Ideas: The Federal Reserve Delays ReductionQEThe impact is still ongoing Gold prices continue to rise2013.10.28

Dianzi TongPIPTRADEFundamentals:
International SpotgoldThe Asia Pacific period gradually fluctuates and drops to1340Around the US dollar. During the European period, spot gold expanded its decline and refreshed its intraday performance1336.14dollar/Ounces low, finally bottoming out and rebounding to1346Around the US dollar. During the New York session, spot gold expanded its gains and once again broke through1350The US dollar level finally stabilized near this level. Spot gold hit its highest point1355.40dollar/Ounces, lowest dip1336.14dollar/Ounces, compared to the opening price of the previous trading day1345.70dollar/Ounce rise6USD, increase0.45%Report1351.70dollar/ounce.Comex 12Monthly deposit Friday(10month25day)rise4.9USD, increase0.36%Report1351.80dollar/ounce.

Last week, hardware prices continued to maintain an upward trend, although the increase was not significant, but it is clear that the Federal Reserve has scaled backQEThe impact of policy expectations cooling down is still ongoing. In the US data released last Friday9The monthly rate of durable goods orders is3.7%Better than expected2.3%And previous values0.1%However, the monthly rate of core durable goods orders remains at the previous level-0.1%Unchanged, expected to be0.5%And the United States10The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month is73.2Less than expected75。

Overall, there has been no significant improvement in the data, which is consistent with this2The overall trend of data from the US over the past month has led to a rebound in gold prices from last Friday's low in the US session, and has recovered all the losses in the Asia Europe session of that day, ultimately leading to a comeback1350upper.

From the current market atmosphere, due to the widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will only shrink next yearQEPolicy, this factor will provide potential support for gold prices, so the market atmosphere still tends to be bullish on gold. However, it is worth noting that there is a significant divergence in the future trend of gold prices among international investment banks, such as Deutsche Bank and HSBC, due to the Federal Reserve's reductionQEThe expected cooling trend tends to be bullish on gold for a period of time in the future, but Credit Suisse believes that the fundamentals of gold are still weak, so this rebound will be brief, and then gold prices will fall again. The differences between international investment banks may also indicate that there is still significant divergence in the market regarding the trend of gold prices, which may not be smooth sailing whether it is up or down, which will also make the trend quite volatile.

On Monday, the main focus for gold prices will be on pending US housing sales and industrial production data, and there may be a need to consider the risk of gold price correction before the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution.

Dianzi TongPIPTRADETechnical aspect
Gold:
Daily chart: Gold rebounded from its low point last Friday and turned upward, maintaining an upward trend
4Hour chart:4Hour chart on1350Nearby high-level organization, unclear direction
1Hourly chart: Gold price in1350-1355Within a narrow range of fluctuations, random indicators have rebounded again, but it is clear that there is insufficient action on gold prices
Overview: Gold prices have not yet shown upward momentum, but there are signs of weakening momentum and a possibility of a pullback needs to be considered

Silver:
Daily chart: Silver rebounded from its low point last Friday, but failed to recover all losses and ultimately closed down. There are signs of high consolidation on the daily chart
4Hour chart: Silver temporarily in22.50Nearby fluctuations, random indicators slightly upward
1Hour chart: Hour chart in22.50-22.60Fluctuation within the range, waiting for further driving factors
Overview: Silver shows preliminary signs of correction and needs to effectively break through22.50To further decline

Follow on Monday:
britain10monthCBIRetail sales difference
U.S.A9Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A9Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A9Monthly and annual rates of pending housing sales
U.S.A9Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month