Swiss franc : (4month7day)

瑞士联邦统计局上周公布，瑞士3Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Increase compared to the same period last year2.6%, for1993year10月以来最高，连续第四个月高于瑞士央行设定的2%的物价稳定门槛。这一通膨数据削弱了瑞士央行降息的机率，央行有机会在年底之前一直维持利率不变。然而，利率不变之预期对瑞郎支持应属有限，因近日有关金融市场可能正在回稳的希望令瑞郎的避险魅力减弱，从而对瑞郎上周之表现构成压力，瑞郎由周初高位0.9868持续走软，周四最低见至1.0217，至周五才凭藉美国数据面的疲弱而扳回部份跌幅。

波浪理论分析，瑞郎有机会运行大型第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves3Stretching within the waves(v)伸延小浪内的第iv伸延小微浪。瑞郎在06year10month13Daily low1.2769完成大型的第(IV)Within the waves(C)Waves, and1.2769to06year12month5Daily high1.1878为大型的第(V)Within the waves(1)Waves,1.1878to07year1巿26Daily low1.2576为大型的第(V)Within the waves(2)Waves,1.2576to07year4month25Daily high1.1993为大型的第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves1Stretching waves,1.1993to07year6month13Daily low1.2468为第2Stretching waves,1.2468to8month6Daily high1.1814为第3Stretching within the waves(i)伸延小浪。而1.1814to8month16Daily low1.2213为第3Stretching within the waves(ii)Stretching small waves.1.2213to11month23Daily high1.0883为第3Stretching within the waves(iii)Stretching small waves.1.0883to12month21Daily low1.1594为第3Stretching within the waves(iv)伸延小浪。而1.1594Until this year2month1Daily high1.0727为第3Stretching within the waves(v)伸延小浪内的第i伸延小微浪，1.0727to2month13Daily low1.1106为第ii伸延小微浪，1.1106to3month17Daily high0.9644为第iii伸延小微浪，0.9964至现在为第3Stretching within the waves(v)伸延小浪内的第iv伸延小微浪。预料此第iv伸延小微浪将有机会下跌至1.05-1.06水平，故本周瑞郎有机会进一步下试1.03Horizontal.

图表所见，上周瑞郎低见至1.0217，接近于3month24Daily low1.0249，预计后市瑞郎进一步走低至此区则会组成双底，继而跌破1.2050之颈线，则可望大幅度延伸下滑，计算幅度延伸可至1.0630水平附近；预计较近之测试支持则为1.0400/20，50Balance moving average1.0500亦可作另一参考。反之，若瑞郎本周可作进一步反弹，升见至3month31日之高位0.9868，则将形成双顶型态，继而出现突破，则有望在技术上延伸近350点之升幅至0.9570水平附近；当前较近阻力则可先参考0.98and3月份之纪录高位0.9674水平。预估瑞郎本周走势整体将较为反覆，但随著市场避险意愿降低，则或仍见较偏软发展，预计波幅在0.9870to1.0400。

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )