pound : (4month7day)

英镑上周走势强稳，呼应了全球及英国金融类股较过去几月更佳的表现。近期数家银行宣布资产减记后，市场揣测信贷危机的最糟糕阶段或已过去，市场风险偏好因而全面上升，这对英镑构成利好。英镑亦自上周二之低位1.9727持续回升，周五更因美国就业数据疲弱而一度窜升至2.0048，至尾盘收市则回落至1.99水平附近。鉴于英国经济和英镑的长期前景仍相对不乐观，英镑在基本面仍存在向下压力。预计英国央行将会在上半年实施降息，但降息幅度力度预期不大，因英国通膨率仍远高于2%The target level.

波浪理论分析，英镑仍运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪内的(c)浪。在1month22Daily low1.9336完成大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)伸延浪，由1.9336to1month30Daily high1.9957为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(4)Stretching within the wavesaWaves,1.9957to2month20Daily low1.9361bybWaves,1.9361to3month14Daily high2.0397byc浪，亦代表第(4)The stretching waves come to an end here. and2.0397to3month20Daily low1.9733为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves1Stretching small waves,1.9733to3month27Daily high2.0192为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪内的(a)Waves,2.0192to4month1Daily low1.9728为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪内的(b)Waves,1.9728至现在有机会为第2伸延小浪内的(c)浪。预料此第2伸延小浪内的(c)浪将在2.0050-2.0192之间完结。当确认第2伸延小浪内的(c)浪完成后，大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves3伸延小浪便马上展开，而第3伸延小浪将跌穿1.9336水平至1.9000以下水平。

图表所见，英镑上周最高触及2.0050，刚好碰及以近期高位连成之下降趋向线，目前趋向线位置在2.0040水平，相信往后亦可作为一阻力参考。而下方英镑则能在周初守稳市场严阵以待之关键区域1.9720，令整体英镑走势陷于争持待变之格局中。由于下方1.9700/20位置为近月之关键底部，可预期一旦跌破，英镑将出现剧跌之行情，较近之测试支持预计先为100Weekly moving average1.9600Horizontal; and20个月保历加通道亦见关键支撑于1.9490水平。至于若英镑上行突破趋向线阻力2.0040水平，向目标将指向250Balance moving average2.0085Or even2.02水平。预估本周在议息结果公布及G7会议前，英镑将见反覆偏软发展，以修正上周之上涨行情，波幅估计维持在1.9600to2.0100。

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )