Hai Weihan: Crude Oil Falls to Its Peak and Returns50As the golden tide rises, the ship's height surpasses one thousand two

Saturday Beijing Time（1month14Day)02:00Announced US to1month13The total number of oil drilling in the current week is522Mouth, previous value is529Mouth, slightly below expectations, for11For the first time since the beginning of the week, it has decreased. Based on the current production efficiency of the US energy industry, it is possible to1-3Formed within months3610000 barrels/Daily production capacity.
　　
Oil market investors have to wait every Friday for the number of wells drilled by Oil Service Baker, as the number of wells reflects the production capacity willingness of oil and gas companies and also indicates future production. But the number of wells drilled is only one factor in production: although currently the number of wells drilled is only2014year10One-third of the peak of the month,EIAThe United States is onshorecrude oilThe estimated production has only shrunk6%And efficiency improvement is the main reason behind it.
　　
Excluding drilling data, frozen production did not achieve the expected results. The latest report shows that this year the National Oil Company of VenezuelaPDVSAThe output is250.110000 barrels/Day, this is related to the company1993The annual production level is comparable, compared to2016last year11Months249.610000 barrels/Increase in daily production level5000bucket/Day. According to OPEC's production reduction agreement, Venezuela will reduce production in the first half of this year9.510000 barrels/Solstice197.210000 barrels/Day. Although it is expected that its oil production will reach a historic low, it is still above the production level set by OPEC.
　　
The Trump new policy, which was a key focus of this week, did not disclose specific details, resulting in a significant drop in the US dollar and a seven week high in international gold prices. Due to Trump's failure to disclose policy details after taking office at a press conference early Thursday, the disappointment of US dollar bulls towards fiscal stimulus policies intensified, and the attractiveness of the US dollar decreased significantly. On Thursday, the US dollar fell against most major currencies, and the US dollar index briefly fell below101Point to Federal Reserve12month14Before the daily interest rate hike, and fell below the critical level50The daily moving average has a worrying outlook. Meanwhile,10The yield of one-year US Treasury bonds touched11The lowest point since the beginning of the month.
　　

Crude oil still needs to pay attention to the specific implementation details of freezing production. This week, there has been a series of struggles around freezing production, but no breakthrough has been made55The threshold of the US dollar has achieved the expected effect. The attitudes towards OPEC oil producing countries with frozen production are also different. According to the latest data analysis, the implementation of production reduction is not satisfactory. Although most of them are reducing production, they are still far from the target. Some oil producing countries have deviated from the path of reducing production and are going further and further on the road of increasing production, slowly recovering to historical peak levels, which has made it increasingly difficult for oil prices to recover. At present, there is still a problem with historical inventory, and the actual export volume continues to increase, leading to intensified risk aversion and interfering with the actual situation.
　　
This week continued to be bearish. Since the implementation of production cuts, oil prices have been in a downward trend since the New Year, and the effect of production cuts has been minimal. The weekly closing is at52.5Nearby, this further indicates that oil prices will continue to decline, and the predicted strong rebound has not occurred. The slow decline has turned into a straight decline, and the rebound appears weak. The continuous physical bearish market has rebounded, but it was put back again on Friday, further increasing the risk of a downturn. It can continue to be bearish next week. If OPEC cannot come up with a specific and feasible production reduction plan, oil prices may return once again50Below the US dollar. In the future, we still need to pay attention to OPEC, but we will remain bearish next week.
　　

　　goldA strong rebound has opened up three consecutive positive trends, continuously breaking new highs and steadily rising, providing more possibilities for the future. The Trump new policy announced on Thursday did not have specific details, but the US dollar fell sharply as a result, followed closely by the US index, and gold prices broke through 1200 but failed to stabilize. Friday concludes with1197Nearby, it's only a step away from the Thousand Two Pass, and earlier this pass was also broken through. It's easy to return to this position again. Next week, gold will continue to rise, and the target for the middle line can be placed on1250Nearby, the trend of continuous yang will continue, and the upward trend of gold prices will not change.