pound: (3month31day)

英国方面，全英房屋抵押贷款协会上周五称，英国3月房价连续第五个月下跌，年增长率降至12年最低，显示曾经炽手可热的房市正快速走软。此外市场研究机构GfK NOPAnnounce UK3monthGFK消费者信心指数也降至逾15年低位，因英国家庭对于经济前景的看法愈发悲观。英镑短期利率futures大涨，走势反映出今年年底前英国央行恐会三度降息25个基点。疲弱的消费者信心数据和房价报告增加了英国进一步放宽银根的机率。

波浪理论分析，英磅运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪。英磅由07year11month9Daily high2.1160开始运行大型调整浪。由2.1160to11month16Daily low2.0352为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(1)Stretching waves,2.0352to11month28Daily high2.0832为第(2)Stretching waves,2.0832to12month6Daily low2.0178为第(3)Stretching within the waves1Stretching small waves,2.0178to12month12Daily high2.0564为第(3)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪,and2.0564to12month24The low point of the day1.9753为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)Stretching within the waves3Stretching small waves,1.9753to12month31Daily high2.0101为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)Stretching within the waves4Stretching small waves,2.0101to08year1month28The low point of the day1.9336为第5伸延小浪，亦代表第(3)The stretching waves come to an end here. and1.9336to1month30Daily high1.9957为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(4)Stretching within the wavesaWaves,1.9957to2month20Daily low1.9361为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(4)Stretching within the wavesbWaves,1.9361to3month14Daily high2.0397byc浪，亦代表第(4)The stretching waves come to an end here. and2.0397to3month20Daily low1.9733有机会为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves1Stretching small waves,1.9733至现在有机会为第(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪，预料此第2伸延小浪将在2.0397以下完结。当确认完成第2伸延小浪后，第3伸延小浪即下跌浪便马上展开，而第3伸延小浪将跌穿1.9336水平至1.9000以下水平。

英镑兑美元上周初持续攀升，至周四一度走高至2.0192；但由于英国央行强调了英镑面临的下档风险，期货市场押注英国下月可能降息，英镑于周五出现大幅回吐至最低1.9880水平。图表指标所见，RSIandSTC处于横盘，有机会渐次进入争持牛皮状态。目前预计英镑上方较近阻力先为2.0220to2.0270区域，可期待破位又将迎来另一浪强劲升幅，下一级挑战目标预计为2.0305and2.0355；分别为20Daily and50保历加通道上轨。下方则已见1.9730/50应予以英镑较强之支撑力道，同时若意外跌破此区将见较大幅度之调整压力，下一级支持可看至1.96Gateway and1.94Horizontal.

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )