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London Gold(3month19day)

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周二晚美国联邦储备理事会(FED)下调联邦基金利率75个基点,幅度小于部分市场人士预期。联储表示委员会预计通膨在未来几季缓和,反映能源和其他商品价格预计回落,资源使用率压力降低;但通膨前景的不确定性增加,有必要继续密切监控通膨发展。

Londongold在周二早盘漫步上扬,晚间数据公布后,金价上扬至全日最高1012.30美元,其后随着美国议息临近,市场减持部位,议息半句钟,金价已回落至1002to1004水平徘徊,至联储仅减息四分三厘,低于市场预期的一厘减幅,再者更有两位委员以减幅过大为由投反对票,美元因此全面受到提振,而金价则随即出现大幅下挫,低见至977.80美元。另外,杜拜和土耳其黄金销售大幅减少,沉重的结清部位压力令金价跌势加剧。

金价自周初高位1030.80至今晨低位977.80美元已有近53美元跌幅,令技术走势上不但失守9天平均线,亦同时下破一短期趋向线,加上随机指数亦已见回跌讯号,跌破80水准,金价本周馀下走势不容乐观。下向将有机会测试另一关键为一较长期之趋向线961水平,此区同时更为25天平均线位置,令此区支持变得更具可塑性。预计此区若然失守,将开启了金价测试950to953区域之下跌路途。即市较近支持预估在978and969水平。本月而言,金价都见多次在960区间寻获支撑,故若守稳则显示金价还未转向明显的看跌,不过可有机会维持一轮整固争持之状态,上方较近阻力预计在989and999水平,须回稳1000美元关口,才见金价有重拾上升动能之倾向,进一步将可望测试至1023USD.

London Gold 3month19day
Predicting early wave amplitude:978─ 989*
Support bit:969─ 961(25antenna) - 953
Resistance level:999 ─ 1023

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )
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