Banda Asia: Rising Concerns about Brexit Turning the Trend The pound has turned from rising to falling

The European Central Bank announced yesterday12The minutes of the monthly monetary policy meeting show that12month7-8At the policy meeting in Japan, two "roughly equivalent" options were presented to the management committee, namely to implement quantitative easing(QE)extend6Buying assets every month800Billion euros and extension9Months, every month600Billion euros. The second option received widespread support, with some members initially favoring the first option, while others were unable to support either option. Someone suggested extending asset purchases to the proposed period2017year12After the month, it is possible to protect the recovery of the eurozone from potential adverse effects for a longer period of time; Some people suggest supporting shorter asset purchase times, which are limited to6Months, every month600Billion euros. Meanwhile, in the minutes, the European Central Bank also believes that changing the issuance or upper limit of bonds is not appropriate due to legal and reputational concerns. The minutes show that last month's decision by the European Central Bank reflects an increase in confidence in the performance of the eurozone economy. The European Central Bank's monthly bond purchase plan may expand and, if necessary, rise to800100 million euros/Month. The minutes also show that the European Central Bank believes that the potential price pressure is limited and has not clearly shown convincing signs of improvement; The overall and core inflation rates are expected to significantly increase in the coming months, mainly due to the huge base effect of energy prices.


In addition, the UK government confirmed yesterday that Prime Minister May will deliver an important speech on Brexit next Tuesday. Previously, Mei had been under pressure from various sectors, demanding that she be included in the planned3The government's specific strategy will be announced before the formal start of the withdrawal process and negotiations with the European Union in the month. The contributors to this speech will also include Foreign Secretary Johnson and Brexit Secretary Davis. A spokesperson for the UK Prime Minister stated that this speech will set "more ways for us to exit Europe" and implement the principle of "a globalized UK and continuing to be an outward oriented country". Shadow Brexit MinisterSir Keir StarmerThe government's time is tight. "The Labour Party has always been clear in its stance that we need an agreement that benefits British business, protects labor and environmental rights, and ensures a new relationship of cooperation and mutual benefit with the European Union." "Next Tuesday, the Prime Minister will have the opportunity to demonstrate whether she agrees with these goals." Last weekend, May told Sky News that her government is not "mentally confused" about leaving the EU, as previously resigned Ambassador to the EU Rogers said. ".


The data that needs attention today is China12Monthly Trade Account, USA12monthPPIAnnual rate, United States12Monthly retail sales rate and US1Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month. In addition, Federal Reserve official Huck's speech tonight is also worth everyone's attention.

USD Index

The US dollar index hit bottom yesterday and rebounded, narrowing its intraday decline. The current exchange rate is trading at101.50Nearby. The disappointing press conference of US President elect Trump continues to ferment, once suppressing the fall of the US dollar index101.00Pass and refresh1The low point for months. However, with the support of short covering and good initial jobless claims data during the period, as well as optimistic speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials, the US index recovered most of its intraday decline. Follow Today102.00Nearby pressure situation, supported below101.00Near.

euro/dollar

The euro rose yesterday and then fell, with a slight daily increase. The spot exchange rate was traded at1.0610Nearby. The sustained decline of the US dollar index after Trump's disappointing press conference is the main reason supporting the rebound of the euro. In addition, the overall good performance of the economic data released by the eurozone during the period also provided some support for the euro. During this period, the European Central Bank announced12The minutes of the monthly monetary policy meeting are neutral in language and have limited impact on the market. Follow Today1.0700Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.0500Near.

pound/dollar

The pound rose yesterday and fell back, with a slight daily decline. The spot exchange price was traded at1.2150Nearby. The US dollar index continued to weaken after Trump's press conference, once supporting the pound's rebound and hitting1.2300Gateway. However, the good times did not last long. Under the influence of profit taking and the rebound of the US dollar index to recover some of the decline, the pound quickly fell. The news of the UK Prime Minister's plan to leave the EU next week has heightened concerns about Brexit, exacerbating the decline of the pound, which ultimately closed lower. Follow Today1.2250Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.2050Near.