Su Wenyan: Freezing production agreements have become a routine, and crude oil is likely to collapse and fall below50dollar

Su Wenyan: The frozen production agreement has become a routine,crude oilFear of collapse and falling below50dollar

Recent crude oil market——

During this period, the crude oil market has been paying attention not only to the development of shale oil in the United States, but also to the timely progress of OPEC's production reduction. It seems that the progress is not as smooth as imagined. The Iraqi oil minister is playing tricks, calling for production cuts while ignoring them. This kind of ambiguous behavior will be a long-term blow to the crude oil market.

　　Message surface answer——

Iraqi Oil Minister Aruabi on Thursday(1month12day)In Abu Dhabi, it stated that the country is complying with the production reduction agreement reached by global oil producing countries and hopes that oil prices will remain at a per barrel level65About USD. During the meeting, Aruabi told reporters, "Iraq wants better prices, and we want oil prices to..."65Around USD;And of course, Iraq will comply with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)"Obligation."

However, according to reliable sources, Iraq plans to2Increase the export of crude oil through the Basra port in the southern part of the country to364.110000 barrels/Day, the material will be refreshed12The record high set by the month. Iraq2The monthly export of crude oil includes Basra light oil and heavy oil, which are respectively274.810000 barrels/Rihe89.310000 barrels/Day. Iraq Monday(1month9day)Announce,2016year12Basra crude oil exports hit a record high on a monthly basis35110000 barrels/The record high for the day.

Meanwhile, Reuters also has data showing that despiteOPECThe country has started implementing itOPECProduction reduction agreement, but1Month beginning9The oil export volume from southern Iraq remains close to a record high.

　　How to operate crude oil——

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　　Iraq's playing tricks like this may not have a significant impact on the crude oil market for a short period of time, but for other oil producing countries, it is a breach of trust. If other oil producing countries follow suit, crude oil may directly collapse. Now, it shows that crude oil can stabilize50The US dollar, but how long can it stabilize?The long-term opportunity to short crude oil may have quietly approached. At present, there is no further room for crude oil to rebound. Don't be misled by appearances. If you are not yet familiar with the trend of the market and do not have a reasonable operation, you canAdd WeChatswy502consulting serviceAuthor Su Wenyan.