eTouruieToro: Is it really possible for the US dollar to weaken?

　eTouruieToro: Is it really possible for the US dollar to weaken?


The cross asset strategist at Royal Bank of Canada stated that the upward trend of the US dollar is likely to weaken, and a reversal of the US dollar is definitely the biggest risk in the market. Some American business people believe that Trump's "border tax" policy poses significant risks to businesses, especially in the retail industry. If imports become more expensive, it may lead to trade distortion. The company leaders are currently discussing this matter, and they believe that the complete "border tax" adjustment plan is increasingly likely to be reduced in size as a punishment for the company's relocation. Although these are not yet determined, the possibility of weakening the factors driving the strengthening of the US dollar is accepted by the market, and those trades based on the strengthening of the US dollar will face risks.
If the US dollar weakens, bond prices and duration will rebound; Crowded value stocks will be liquidated, and defensive and growth companies will be favored; The Japanese yen and euro will rise significantly;goldCopper will be favored again and discarded; Compared to investment grade bonds, high-yield bonds will weaken. The following figure showseTouruieToroProvide the trend of the US dollar index, data up to2017year1month12Day.

　　foreign exchangeMargin trading is a currency transaction on the subject matter, so the US dollar is undoubtedly the most unique currency among the over 100 global currencies, as announced by the International Monetary Fund2016The share of foreign exchange reserves in US dollars in the third quarter is63.28%, occupying an absolute dominant position. Meanwhile, for foreign exchange margin tradingForeign exchange transactionsFor those who are concerned, a series of events in the United States, such as non farm activities, speeches by the Federal Reserve, and interest rate hikes by the US dollar, are all part of the market and have opportunities for profitability.
So why is the US dollar so important in the international market?
The US dollar developed after the Civil War, with the former main currency being the Spanish silver dollar. As the US economy continued to develop, the status of the US dollar in the mainland became important. After the World War, the US occupied the world's gold reserves59%. After World War II, the international monetary system centered around the US dollar, which was pegged to gold and referred to as the US dollar. The position of the US dollar cannot be shaken. The changes in the US economy are affecting the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. What economic data is worth learning about in the United States?

　　1.GDPAnd currency
The market value of all final products and services produced by a country within a certain period of time isGDP. Generally speaking, goodGDPData can lead to currency appreciation, whileGDPPoor data can lead to currency decline.
　　2.Non farm employment report
The non farm employment report released by the United States is one of the most important economic data in the world, divided into non farm employment numbers, unemployment rates, and non farm employment rates. The Federal Reserve is very concerned about employment reports, which can affect changes in interest rates. During the announcement period, there will be significant fluctuations in exchange rates, so many people will use that point for trading, but the risk is also significant.
　　3.Inflation data
Employment data is related to non-agricultural data, and controlling inflation is determined by the Consumer Price IndexCPIProducer Price IndexPPIPersonal consumption expenditure deflator indexPCEReflect. An economic index that reflects changes in consumer payment for goods, changes in prices of means of production, and measures the degree of change in the total level of personal consumption expenditure during different periods.
Disclaimer: Past performance cannot determine future outcomes. This article is not an investment advice. All transactions involve risks, please only invest in capital that you can bear losses.