yen : (3month3day)

日本政府上周公布的数据显示，日本1The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is3.8%, equal to12月水准，与市场预估一致。另外，日本1月核心消费者物价较上年同期成长0.8%，维持上月所创的10年新高水准，但不致改变市场对利率动向的看法。在美国经济衰退疑虑及日本经济前景愈发悲观下，日本央行今年料紧守现行0.5%的利率不变，甚或调降利率。而本周之议息会议亦预估会维持利率不变。
日圆上周反弹，由周初低见108.21Up to Friday's highest103.77。波浪理论分析，日圆有机会运行大型第IIIWithin the waves(III)Within the waves2伸延浪。日圆在1999year12月的高位101.23Start running the large sectionIIIwave,and101.23to2002year2月的低位135.00For the large sectionIIIWithin the waves(I)Waves, and135.00to2005year1月的高位101.67For the large sectionIIIWithin the waves(II)Waves,101.67to2005year11月的低位121.38For the large sectionIIIWithin the waves(III)Within the waves1Waves,121.38to06year5month17Daily high108.96为第IIIWithin the waves(III)Within the waves2Within the waves(a)浪，由108.96to07year6month22Daily low124.13为第IIIWithin the waves(III)Within the waves2Within the waves(b)Waves, and124.13至现在为大型第IIIWithin the waves(III)Within the waves2Stretching within the waves(c)浪。预料此第(c)浪将有机会在101.67-102.50之间完结。故本周日圆有机会上升至101-102Horizontal.
日圆上周突破1月份高位，冲破105关口；由于105原先为重要阻力参考，破位后亦成目前之重要支撑参考，只要持稳于此区，将可望日圆短期仍见扩展升幅之空间，图表见较明显之阻力先为50日保历加通道下轨103.65水平，下一级关键则见于102Horizontal;2005year1Monthly high101.67则为另一参考。反之，若105关口被回破，则短期将见持稳整固发展，较大支撑见于5Balance moving average106.20水平。预计本周颇有机会波幅于101.60to106区间，并以持续试高为主线。

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )