Crossing the Sea 2017year1month11day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month11day

Focus this week:
1month11day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index

1month12day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
美国续请失业金人数人
U.S.A12Monthly import price rate
U.S.A12月出口物价月率

1month13day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly federal budget  
U.S.A12Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A11Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A1月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值



Important economic data released today:
17：30 britain11月建筑业产出月率‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value-0.6%
17：30 britain11月建筑业产出年率‧forecast+2.0%‧Previous value+0.7%
17：30 britain11Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.8%‧Previous value-1.3%
17：30 britain11Monthly industrial production annual rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value-1.1%
17：30 britain11Monthly manufacturing output rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value-0.9%
17：30 britain11Annual rate of monthly manufacturing output‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value-0.4%
17：30 britain11Monthly trade balance with non EU regions‧forecast30.00A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value15.98A deficit of one billion yuan
17：30 britain11月全球商品贸易平衡‧forecast112.0A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value97.11A deficit of one billion yuan
20：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value358.5
20：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value1,132.0
20：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index‧Previous value228.0
20：00 Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate‧Previous value4.39%
21：15 Canada12Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast19.5010000 households‧Previous value18.4010000 households

1month12day (Thursday)
00：00 U.S.A1Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value58.39



News of the Week

China12Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)Year-on-year increase2.1%
China12monthCPIMonth on month increase0.2%
China12Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Year-on-year increase5.5%，涨幅创2011year9The highest since the beginning of the month
China12monthPPIMonth on month increase1.6%
China2016yearCPIYear-on-year increase2.0%，PPIYear-on-year decrease1.4%
U.S.A11月批发库存较前月增加1.0%
U.S.A11月批发销售较前月增长0.4%
美国劳工部职位空缺及劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)display11月经季节调整后职位空缺为552.2ten thousand


1month10day
LondongoldMorning order price:1183.20
London gold afternoon fixing price:1189.50



Today's Introduction

世行预计今年经济成长加速，但对美国政策不确定

世界银行周二发布最新的全球经济展望报告，称全球经济成长可能略有加快，因油价和商品价格反弹，缓和了新兴市场商品出口国的压力，且巴西和俄罗斯的经济衰退告终。世行预计，今年全球实质国内生产总值(GDP)grow up2.7%，去年成长2.3%，为金融危机后的低水平。世行表示，发达经济体今年经济增幅预计由2016Of1.6%小涨至1.8%，而新兴市场和发展中经济体今年经济成长将加快至4.2%，去年为3.4%。世行表示，中国经济成长将继续放缓，今年增幅由2016Of6.7%lower6.5%。美国经济料成长2.2%，去年为1.6%；不过增幅可能会比预期大很多，并影响美国以外地区。


会议记录：美联储12月会议上仅有明尼亚波利斯联储希望维持贴现率不变

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)的贴现率会议记录显示，在12月货币政策会议前，仅有明尼亚波利斯联邦储备银行支持维持贴现率不变。其它11家地区联储银行总裁在11Month and12月举行的理事会会议上都投票支持上调贴现率25Basis points, to1.25%, higher than11月初美联储政策会议前的九家。另外，会议记录指出，多位地区联储银行总裁提到政府政策可能大规模调整，包括可能实施扩张性财政措施”。



XAU London Gold - 避险买需推高金价

经济和政治方面的不确定性增加了黄金的避险魅力 ，金价周三升见1190上方的六周高位。市场在等待特朗普自当选以来的首次记者会，以寻找执政政策方面的线索。这次记者会将在周三稍晚举行。

As seen in the technical chart,10Tianhe25天平均线处于交迭，或预示着金价中线强势即将展开，但同时相对强弱指标及随机指数高踞于超买区域，需慎防短线或会先作整固。下方支持预估在1181and1175Next level can be seen in25Balance moving average1153US dollars. Estimated resistance above1198。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%的反弹水平将会见至1204.50USD,50%Will reach1230Horizontal.

London Gold2017year1month11day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1181 – 1198
Resistance level:1208 – 1220
Support bit:1175 – 1164

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month6Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month9Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month10Day - 805.00ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 测探50MA

伦敦白银方面，相对强弱指数及随机指标均已来到超买区域，并暂见出现回落迹象，故需留意潜在调整风险，尤其要特别留意上方位于16.72of50天平均线，去年12月份银价试高亦曾受制50天线，故若果一再未能突破此技术阻力，将进一步增加出现回调的机率。至于下一级阻力则会看至17.20To the extent that200Balance moving average17.83美元。另一方面，下方支持预料在16.30and15.90美元，较大支持预料为15.50USD.

London Silver2017year1month11day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 – 17.20
Resistance level:17.60 – 18.20
Support bit:15.90 – 15.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month5Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month6Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month9Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month10Day - 10612.51ton



EUR euro - 美元止跌回稳，欧元续呈弱势

美国总统当选人特朗普(Donald Trump)将举行记者会 ，市场预计他可能会在记者会上公布更多关于其经济计划的内容。特朗普11月份出人意料地竞选成功刺激美元大涨，如今其涨势已显消退迹象，美元指数已脱离1month3Heliocentric14Annual high point103.82，过去一周曾降至101.30。欧元兑美元周二曾高见1.0626。

技术走势而言，预估下方支撑将回看1.0360and1.0250水平。中期走势则较为瞩目于1.00这个关口，倘若自2002年后欧元再次踏破这平价水准，很大机会将又启动新一轮跌势，较大目标预估为0.9850and0.96水平。短线阻力则预料为50Balance moving average1.0620，过去一个多月高位亦见受制50天线，故短期仍无法破位下，将增加欧元回吐的风险，预料较大阻力料为1.08Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: France12monthHICPFinal value‧Germany2016yearGDP‧Italy11Monthly industrial production‧eurozone11Monthly industrial production

Related news
eurozone1monthSentixInvestor confidence index rose18.2
eurozone11月失业率持稳于9.8%
Italy11The monthly unemployment rate has risen11.9%，为近一年半来最高

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0620 – 1.0800
support 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0000*



JPY yen - 弱势盘整，探试120Gateway

在特朗普记者会前，美元兑日圆窄幅波动，谨慎情绪在市场占主导。过去两个月，有关特朗普政府将实施以大规模财政支出为主的经济刺激措施的预期，推动美国股市升至纪录高位，美国公债收益率触及2014年以来高点，且美元指数创下14年高点。在这种背景下，金融市场热切希望看到特朗普将如何落实其竞选承诺。

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The support position will be reviewed first115.50and115Horizontal, with larger supporting materials112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%The callback level.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan12月银行放款余额年率‧服务业景气判断指数‧Japan11Monthly current account
周五：日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Related news
Japan as of12At the end of the monthforeign exchangeReserve decreases1.217Trillion US dollars

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 115.50 – 115.00 – 112.00



GBP pound - Political tension dealt a heavy blow to the pound

英镑兑美元周二触及的两个月低点1.2104。围绕英国退欧条款的担忧 ，令英镑本周承担沉重压力。技术走势而言，预估英镑兑美元短线仍会延续弱势，上方阻力料在50Balance moving average1.2430Last week, the exchange rate was restricted for two consecutive days50Antenna, if there is significant resistance, it is expected to be1.25Horizontal. Key estimates100Balance moving average1.26Level, last year12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展三周多的跌势，因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。至于当前下试支持则会瞩目于10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK11月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Related news
britain12monthBRC零售支出较上年同期上升1.7%
britain12monthBRC同店零售销售较上年同期上升1.0%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2430 – 1.2500 – 1.2600*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

The trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc has recently been in a narrow range of sideways trading, and the multi day low also coincides with50The moving average is like last Thursday and Friday. The relative strength index and random index have both fallen into oversold areas, indicating that the US dollar is likely to rebound in the short term. at present50The balance moving average is at1.01Level, considered as a reference for closer support, greater support will still focus on last year12At the beginning of the month, there was no permission to break through1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05Horizontal.

Related news
Switzerland12月经调节失业率为3.3%
Switzerland12月未经调节失业率为3.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0100 – 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - End of sideways rise

澳元兑美元周二一度升至12月中以来最高水平0.7385。美元本周涨势暂停，而铁矿石和煤炭价格上涨，令澳元本周获得支撑。澳元1月迄今已经累计上涨2.1%，此前连续三个月下跌。铁矿石和焦煤价格上涨提振了澳元，这两种商品是澳洲的出口获利大户。铁矿石价格周二大涨8%，创逾三周最高水平，焦煤价格亦攀升近8%。

技术走势而言，在经历了12After the sideways consolidation in the second half of the month, this year started with a high rise. If calculated based on the cumulative decline in the past two months,38.2%and50%The rebound level will be0.74and0.7470Expand to61.8%by0.7540。下方支持仍会瞩目于去年5month24The low point of the day0.7145；另一个位置则会直指0.70这个心理关口。

Related news
Australia11Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustments0.2%
澳洲截至11月的三个月职位空缺增长2.1%, creating2011年中来高位

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7400 – 0.7470 – 0.7540
support 0.7145 – 0.7000** – 0.6800



NZD New Zealand dollars - Bottoming out and rebounding

纽元兑美元方面，上周五触及三周高点0.7044，但同样因美元回涨，令纽元回吐涨幅，更返回0.70关口下方。技术走势而言，预估向上阻力先看0.70as well as200Balance moving average0.7080The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal. The relative strength index and random index have both fallen from the overbought area, and the short-term exchange rate is expected to continue to decline. The support level is estimated to be0.68Greater support will continue until last year5The low point at the end of the month0.6676To the extent that0.65Horizontal.

Focus:
1month10day(two): New Zealand11Monthly Building Permit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7080 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - The fourth quarter survey by the central bank shows an increase in corporate confidence

In terms of USD/CAD, in terms of position, support in the near future will still be referred to first1.32The key is200Balance moving average1.3090and1.30关口。预估阻力在1.34Next level can be seen in1.3600and1.3750Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Canada12Monthly housing construction annual rate
Thursday: Canada11Monthly New Housing Price Index

Related news
Canada12The annual rate of housing construction adjusted by the menstrual season has increased20.710000 households

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3400 – 1.3600 – 1.3750
support 1.3200 – 1.3090 – 1.3000





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)