pound : (2month25day)

pound : (2month25day)
上周公布之美国议息会议记录中，联储称担心即便在一系列大幅降息后，美国经济还将面临进一步的挫折；联储并大幅调降对2008年该国经济成长的预估，令美元持续承压。市场预期联储将在3月会议上再度降息50个基点，届时美元的收益率吸引力将进一步削弱。周四欧洲交易时段，优于预期的英国零售销售数据给了英镑于周四进一步上涨之动力，因投资者降低了对于英国央行今年降息幅度的预期。国家统计局公布英国1Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.8%Increase compared to the same period last year5.6%。市场原先预期1Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.2%, an increase compared to the same period last year4.7%。
数据显示英国消费层面尚未陷入绝境。本周一公布之楼价调查报告，有助探究英国经济体质和未来降息的进一步线索。

英磅上周先跌后升，由周初下跌至周三最低1.9353后反弹至周五最高1.9708。现阶段英磅应该仍有反弹空间，预料英磅有机会反弹至阻力区即1.9900-2.0080水平。当完成反弹后，英磅新的下跌浪将会展开。波浪理论分析，英磅有机会运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)Within the waves(4)Stretching within the wavesc浪。英磅在07year11month9Daily high2.1160开始将运行大型调整浪。由2.1160to11month16Daily low2.0352为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(1)Stretching waves,2.0352to11month28Daily high2.0832为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(2)Stretching waves,2.0832to08year1month22Daily low1.9336为第(3)Stretching waves,1.9336to1month30Daily high1.9957为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(4)Stretching within the wavesaWaves, and1.9957to2month20Daily low1.9361bybWaves,1.9361至现在有机会为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(4)Stretching within the wavesc浪，预料此c浪有机会再反弹至1.9900-2.0080之间水平。当运行完第(4)反弹伸延浪后，第(5)伸延浪即下跌浪将会展开，故本周英磅有机会反弹至1.99-2.0080之间水平。

图表所见，目前50The balance moving average is at1.9710水平，估计为英镑中线形势之关键阻力，未有升破此区则英镑仍可望维持较大型之疲弱趋势，而上周亦已见英镑未能攀越此区，至本周很大机会将再冲击此指标，目前处于1.9710水平，破位升势有望延续，较近阻力预计为1.98关口，再而考验区域则为1.9900/1.9950. On the other hand,10Balance moving average1.9580则为目前较近支撑支持位方面，下一级支持则见至1.95Gateway.

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )