Crossing the Sea 2017year1month10day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month10day

Focus this week:
1month10day(Tuesday)
United States12monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A11monthJOLTS职位空缺数
U.S.A11月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate

1month11day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index

1month12day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
美国续请失业金人数人
U.S.A12Monthly import price rate
U.S.A12月出口物价月率

1month13day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly federal budget  
U.S.A12Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A11Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A1月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值



Important economic data released today:
19：00 United States12月独立企业联盟(NFIB)Small Business Confidence Index‧Previous value98.40
21：30 Canada11Monthly building permit rate‧forecast-5.0%‧Previous value+8.7%
23：00 U.S.A11monthJOLTS职位空缺数‧Previous value553.4Ten thousand
23：00 U.S.A11月批发库存月率修订‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+0.9%
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+1.4%



News of the Week

China12Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)Year-on-year increase2.1%
China12monthCPIMonth on month increase0.2%
China12Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Year-on-year increase5.5%，涨幅创2011year9The highest since the beginning of the month
China12monthPPIMonth on month increase1.6%
China2016yearCPIYear-on-year increase2.0%，PPIYear-on-year decrease1.4%


1month9day
LondongoldMorning order price:1176.10
London gold afternoon fixing price:1178.50



Today's Introduction

stay2016年第一周，汇价已呈现反复动荡，美元上周二刷新14Annual high103.82，但获利盘导致美元回挫，此外，中国央行大力度打击人民币空头，人民币兑美元转跌为涨，亦进一步拖累美元走势；不过，在大涨两日后人民币周五回吐部分涨势。周三晚公布的美联储12月份会议内容显示，对于特朗普的扩张财政政策存有担忧，暗示如果扩大基础设施与减税等导致经济过热则可能在2017年加速升息。周五，为市场所瞩目的12月份美国非农业就业数据公布，基本符合预期，其中美国平均小时工资水准上涨幅度达自2009年以来最高，给了投资者重新做多美元的诱因，美元指数重登102水平上方；非美货币普遍回跌，欧元兑美元下跌至1.05附近，澳元兑美元跌破0.73。美国芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯上周五表示，美联储今年有可能升息三次，升息步伐快于他几个月前的预估，变得与多数美联储官员看法一致。

中国国家统计局周二公布，2016year12Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)Year-on-year increase2.1%，低于路透调查预估中值2.3%。数据并显示，12Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Year-on-year increase5.5%，路透调查预估中值4.5%. This isPPI连续第四个月同比正增长，并创2011year9月以来最大增幅，当时为上涨6.5%。12monthCPI环比涨0.2%，略低于预估的0.3%，PPI环比涨1.6%。12monthCPI中的食品价格同比上涨2.4%，非食品价格同比上涨2%。统计局并公布，中国2016yearCPIYear-on-year increase2.0%，PPIYear-on-year decrease1.4%。

美国波士顿联邦储备银行总裁罗森格伦表示，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)应考虑削减其4.5万亿美元的资产负债表，以帮助更快地升息并降低美元升值对经济的负面影响。罗森格伦在专访中对路透表示，“不但提高短期利率，而且可能提升长期利率，这样做是有好处的。”之前他在康涅狄格州工商业协会的演讲中敦促加速升息。

亚特兰大联邦储备银行总裁洛克哈特称，经济从危机中复苏的进程已“基本完成”，官员现在应致力于应对如何提高生产率等更长期的问题。他认为经济正进入“过渡”阶段，危机创伤虽已基本痊愈，但还需要新政策来鼓励投资、提高生产率并抗衡人口老龄化的拖累。



XAU London Gold - 避险情绪支撑金价

周二金价在上日所及的五周高位下方波动，因美元走软，但美国进一步升息的前景抑制金价涨势 。周一金价曾触及1185.80USD, for12month5The highest ever. 美联储主席耶伦周四将出席一场网络直播会议，届时美国利率前景或变得更加明朗。一场周三举行的记者会是本周焦点之一，届时特朗普或透露其1month20日就任后将寻求实行的更多政策细节。全球最大的黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust周一持有的黄金量下降1.06%to805.00Tons.

伦敦黄金上周四触及12month5The highest in recent days1184.90美元，因美元从本周稍早触及的14年高位进一步回落。尽管大环境并未发生改变，美国经济增长加速，但在过去数月急升后，加之未来经济政策调整的不确定性，令美元涨势受限。技术图表所见，10Tianhe25天平均线处于交迭，或预示着金价中线强势即将展开，但同时相对强弱指标及随机指数高踞于超买区域，需慎防短线或会先作整固。下方支持预估在1179and1166Next level can be seen in25Balance moving average1151and1142US dollars. Estimated resistance above50Balance moving average1187To the extent that1195。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%的反弹水平将会见至1204.50USD,50%Will reach1230Horizontal.

London Gold2017year1month10day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1179 – 1187
Resistance level:1195 – 1209 – 1223
Support bit:1166 – 1152 – 1142

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month6Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month9Day - 805.00ton


2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 测探50MA

伦敦白银方面，相对强弱指数及随机指标均已来到超买区域，并暂见出现回落迹象，故需留意潜在调整风险，尤其要特别留意上方位于16.75of50天平均线，去年12月份银价试高亦曾受制50天线，而过去三日亦见涨幅暂见止步于此，故若果一再未能突破此技术阻力，将进一步增加出现回调的机率。至于下一级阻力则会看至17.30To the extent that200Balance moving average17.80美元。另一方面，下方支持预料在16.10and15.80美元，较大支持预料为15.50USD.

London Silver2017year1month10day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.10 – 16.80
Resistance level:17.30 – 17.90
Support bit:15.80 – 15.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month5Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month6Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month9Day - 10612.51ton



EUR euro - 美元止跌回稳，欧元续呈弱势

一项对货币市场交易员的路透调查周一显示，4月欧洲央行(ECB)降低每月购债规模之后，下一个政策举动将是进一步削减量化宽松(QE) 计划规模。欧洲央行上月宣布，鉴于经济企稳和通胀上升迹象，将从4月起每月购买600亿欧元债券，由目前每月800亿欧元的规模调降。12月欧元区通胀率升至1.1%。当被问到在那之后会怎样时，受访的17名交易员中有11名表示，欧洲央行下一步最有可能削减量化宽松规模。有四名受访交易员表示，欧洲央行将调转方向，增加每月购债规模。有两名受访者称欧洲央行接下来将升息，没有人预测进一步降息。

欧元兑美元上周最高曾触及1.0621，随着意大利，法国和德国建筑业和零售业采购经理指数(PMI)数据大多好于预期，支撑了欧元的升势。欧元区12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIset up2011year4月以来最高，综合PMI也升至五个月高位。然而，美国非农数据止住了美元跌势，促使欧元兑美元回落至1.0520水平。技术走势而言，预估下方支撑将回看1.0360and1.0250水平。中期走势则较为瞩目于1.00这个关口，倘若自2002年后欧元再次踏破这平价水准，很大机会将又启动新一轮跌势，较大目标预估为0.9850and0.96水平。短线阻力则预料为50Balance moving average1.0650，过去两周高位亦见受制50天线，故短期仍无法破位下，将增加欧元回吐的风险，预料较大支撑将为1.08Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: France11Monthly industrial production rate
Thursday: France12monthHICPFinal value‧Germany2016yearGDP‧Italy11Monthly industrial production‧eurozone11Monthly industrial production

Related news
eurozone1monthSentixInvestor confidence index rose18.2
eurozone11月失业率持稳于9.8%
Italy11The monthly unemployment rate has risen11.9%，为近一年半来最高

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0800
support 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0000*



JPY yen - 弱势盘整，探试120Gateway

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The support position will be reviewed first115.50and115Horizontal, with larger supporting materials112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%The callback level.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan12monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan11Monthly simultaneous indicators‧Leading indicators
Thursday: Japan12月银行放款余额年率‧服务业景气判断指数‧Japan11Monthly current account
周五：日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 115.50 – 115.00 – 112.00



GBP pound - Political tension dealt a heavy blow to the pound

英镑兑美元上周曾见显著反弹，因英国公布了强劲的经济资料 ，突显英国经济在退欧公投后的韧性，支撑英镑回稳，高位触及1.2430水平。英国Markit/CIPS 12Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to17Month high56.2Compared to11monthPMI高出整整一点。不过，强劲数据未能支持英镑实现第二周连涨，英镑上周五由1.24水平跌破最低1.2257，尾盘报1.2280。踏入本周一，跌幅进一步扩大，低见1.2122的两个月低位。英国首相文翠珊周末指出，英国将不会如一些评论所指保留部分一些欧盟成员身份，而是会明确脱欧，自行管理边境和移民政策。市场认为，这代表着英国将会失去欧洲单一市场；此外，对于外界批评英国政府在脱欧问题上思绪混乱，文翠珊予以否认。

In terms of technical trends, it is estimated that the GBP/USD will continue to be weak in the short term, and upward resistance is expected to be50Balance moving average1.2430Last week, the exchange rate was restricted for two consecutive days50Antenna, if there is significant resistance, it is expected to be1.25Horizontal. Key estimates100Balance moving average1.2620Level, last year12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展三周多的跌势，因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。至于当前下试支持则会瞩目于10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK11月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Related news
britain12monthBRC零售支出较上年同期上升1.7%
britain12monthBRC同店零售销售较上年同期上升1.0%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2440 – 1.2500 – 1.2650*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

美元兑瑞郎周四低位1.0083，刚好止步于50Balance moving average, currently50The antenna is in1.0080，视为较近支持参考，较大支持仍会瞩目于本月初未许破位的1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05。

Related news
Switzerland12月经调节失业率为3.3%
Switzerland12月未经调节失业率为3.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0080 – 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - End of sideways rise

澳洲统计局周二公布的数据令人失望，11月零售销售较前月仅增长0.2%，不及前月的0.5%增幅。但10Month and11月合计增幅为1.5%，还是大于上一季同期，让人越发冀望经济在经历7-9月的萎缩后已出现转折。澳洲统计局的对网上零售销售的实验性预估值也在11Monthly jump increase10.8%，连续第四个月大增，首次突破11亿澳元。周二的数据将给澳洲央行带来一些安慰。澳洲央行一直仰赖家庭消费加速增长，来抵消矿业投资疲弱造成的拖累。所有的迹象都表明经济在9月当季大幅萎缩后已经恢复增长，降低了澳洲央行进一步推出刺激举措的必要性。利率期货市场显示，预计澳洲央行进一步降息的可能性几乎没有，反倒预期2017年有可能加息。

技术走势而言，在经历了12After the sideways consolidation in the second half of the month, this year started with a high rise. If calculated based on the cumulative decline in the past two months,38.2%and50%The rebound level will be0.74and0.7470Expand to61.8%by0.7540。下方支持仍会瞩目于去年5month24The low point of the day0.7145；另一个位置则会直指0.70这个心理关口。

Related news
Australia11Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustments0.2%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7400 – 0.7470 – 0.7540
support 0.7145 – 0.7000** – 0.6800



NZD New Zealand dollars - Bottoming out and rebounding

纽元兑美元方面，上周五触及三周高点0.7044，但同样因美元回涨，令纽元回吐涨幅，更返回0.70关口下方。技术走势而言，预估向上阻力先看0.70as well as200Balance moving average0.7080The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal. The relative strength index and random index have both fallen from the overbought area, and the short-term exchange rate is expected to continue to decline. The support level is estimated to be0.68Greater support will continue until last year5The low point at the end of the month0.6676To the extent that0.65Horizontal.        

Focus:
1month10day(two): New Zealand11Monthly Building Permit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7080 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - The fourth quarter survey by the central bank shows an increase in corporate confidence

加拿大央行在第四季企业调查报告中称，随着需求反弹，加国企业对未来销售持更加乐观的看法，计划增加投资并加快招聘的步伐。但企业对美国保护主义政策的力度不确定，且有迹象显示，就业市场仍有闲置。央行预计未来12个月销售增长加速，因油价止跌反弹，本国和美国买家的需求反弹。

In terms of USD/CAD, in terms of position, support in the near future will still be referred to first1.32The key is200Balance moving average1.3090and1.30关口。预估阻力在1.34Next level can be seen in1.3600and1.3750Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: Canada11Monthly building permit rate
Wednesday: Canada12Monthly housing construction annual rate
Thursday: Canada11Monthly New Housing Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3400 – 1.3600 – 1.3750
support 1.3200 – 1.3090 – 1.3000






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)