Crossing the Sea 2017year1month4day

Crossing the Sea 2017year1month4day

Focus this week:
1month4day(Wednesday)
U.S.A12monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index

1month5day(Thursday)
U.S.A12monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A12monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A12monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value

1month6day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A12Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A12Monthly and weekly average working hours
U.S.A12Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A11Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A11Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision



Important economic data released today:
17：00 eurozone12monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast53.1‧Previous value53.1
17：00 eurozone12monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast53.9‧Previous value53.9
17：30 britain11Monthly Consumer Credit‧Forecast increase16.00Billion‧Previous value increase16.18Billion
17：30 britain11Monthly mortgage loan disbursement amount‧Forecast increase35.00Billion‧Previous value increase32.78Billion
17：30 britain11Number of monthly mortgage loan approvals‧forecast67,400piece‧Previous value67,518piece
17：30 britain11monthM4Monthly rate of goods supply‧Previous value+1.1%
17：30 britain12monthMatkit/CIPSconstructionPMI‧forecast52.8‧Previous value52.8
18：00 欧元区消12月费者物价调和指数(HICP)the annual rate‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+0.6%
18：00 欧元区消12Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPthe annual rate‧forecast+0.8%‧Previous value+0.8%
18：00 Italy12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧Previous value-0.1%
18：00 Italy12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧Previous value+0.1%
18：00 Italy12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧Previous value-0.2%
18：00 Italy12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧Previous value+0.1%
22：45 U.S.A12Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)-New York Corporate Activity Index‧Previous value720.5



News of the Week

American Supply Management Association(ISM)12The monthly manufacturing index is54.7, for2014year12Monthly highest
U.S.A11Monthly construction expenditure increases0.9%to10Annual high
U.S.A12monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.3, for2015year3The highest in the past month


1month3day
LondongoldMorning order price:1148.65
London gold afternoon fixing price:1151.00



Today's Introduction

U.S.A12月制造业活动触及两年高位，11月建筑支出创10年半最高

U.S.A12月制造业活动加速，触及两年最高水平，因新订单和就业急增，表明油价下跌给制造业造成的拖累在一定程度上消退。周二公布的另一项数据显示，11月美国建筑支出触及10年半高位，可能给第四季成长带来进一步的提振。供应管理协会(ISM)express,12月美国制造业活动指数增长1.5Percentage points, to54.7, for2014year12月以来最高。另外，商务部报告，11月美国建筑支出增长0.9%, to1.18Trillion dollars, for2006year4The highest level since the beginning of the month.


福特顺从特朗普意愿取消墨西哥建厂计划，将在美增加工作岗位

美国第二大汽车生产商福特汽车周二取消了在墨西哥建立新厂的计划，同时在密西根增加700个工作岗位。该公司原先的计划曾遭到美国当选总统特朗普的批评。目前特朗普又将炮口转向福特的竞争对手通用汽车，威胁将对在墨西哥生产的进口紧凑型轿车征收重税。福特汽车首席执行官Mark Fields称，公司此举是对特朗普投以信任票，但主要是针对北美小型汽车需求下降的应对举措；福特原本打算在墨西哥工厂生产此类汽车。他表示，即便特朗普没有当选，公司也会作出相同决定。福特汽车还表示，将在密西根弗拉特罗克的工厂投资7亿美元，生产电动、混合及自动驾驶汽车。



XAU London Gold - 呈技术超买

SPDR Gold Trust黄金持仓量周二下降1.01%to813.87ton 。自特朗普当选美国下一届总统以来已经累计下降约14%。

U.S.A12月制造业活动加速，触及两年最高水平，因新订单和就业急增，表明油价下跌给制造业造成的拖累在一定程度上消退。周二公布的另一项数据显示，11月美国建筑支出触及10年半高位，可能给第四季成长带来进一步的提振。伦敦黄金周二攀升，触及近三周高位，因股市和其它风险资产回吐早盘涨幅，投资者买入黄金避险。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数从超买区域回落，短线呈回吐风险。下方支持预估在1156and1149美元，较大支撑见预料于1138US dollars. Estimated resistance above1168and1176美元，较大阻力为1193。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%的反弹水平将会见至1204.50USD.

London Gold2017year1month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1156 – 1168
Resistance level:1176 – 1193
Support bit:1149 – 1138

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton
12month30Day - 822.17ton
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton


2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 回升至三周高位

伦敦白银周二触及近三周高位18.49。图表所见，相对强弱指数及随机指标均已来到超买区域，要留意潜在回吐风险。阻力预估在16.60To the next level16.90To the extent that200Balance moving average17.78美元。另一方面，下方支持则预料在16.20and15.90美元，较大支持预料为15.50USD.

London Silver2017year1month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.20 – 16.60
Resistance level:16.90 – 17.50
Support bit:15.90 – 15.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton
12month30Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton



EUR euro - Step into2017，欧元仍是弱势延展

European Central Bank(ECB) 上月买进的葡萄牙公债远少于规则允许的水平，降低了对该国的支持力度。葡萄牙政府借款成本正在不断攀升，且经济前景不确定。欧洲央行自2015year3月以来购买了1.53万亿欧元的债券，以刺激欧元区通胀。虽然欧洲央行的购债计划将至少持续至12月，但每月购买的葡萄牙公债却在减少，以避免触及规则设定的对该国公债购买上限。上月减少情况尤其明显，对葡萄牙公债购买量较规则允许水平要低40%。减少购债已给葡萄牙造成影响，去年该国政府借款成本自2011年以来首次上升。欧洲央行开始实施购债计划的时候，曾表示将根据各国在该行的出资额比例来购买各国公债。根据这一规则，葡萄牙应该在欧洲央行购买的欧元区公债中占到2.5%But12月仅占1.5%。上月购买的爱尔兰公债占比也低于其对欧洲央行的出资份额，不过相差程度较小。欧洲央行所持上述两国公债已经接近自己设定的一个上限：欧洲央行持有单一国家公债不得超过其发行额的三分之一。如果触及这个上限，欧洲央行必须完全停止购买葡萄牙公债。这可能给葡萄牙政府的借款成本及支出能力造成严重影响。

欧元兑美元周三一度触及14Annual low point1.0339美元，受美国供应管理协会(ISM)数据影响，数据显示，美国12月制造业活动加速，触及两年最高水平。美债收益率上日受强劲数据推升，但尾盘时从高点回落，令美元涨势趋于温和；得益于美元全面拉回，欧元兑美元周三亦回返至1.04水平上。

技术走势而言，欧元兑美元上周冲高回挫，若显著跌破1.05水准，预料欧元短线复再承压，下方支撑回看1.0360and1.0250水平。中期走势则较为瞩目于1.00这个关口，倘若自2002年后欧元再次踏破这平价水准，很大机会将又启动新一轮跌势，较大目标预估为0.9850and0.96水平。短线阻力则预料为50Balance moving average1.0680and1.08Horizontal.        

Focus:
Wednesday: France12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧MarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Italy12monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧Germany12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧HICPthe annual rate‧扣除食品和能源HICPthe annual rate‧Italy12monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
周四：意大利第三季公共预算赤字与GDPRatio‧eurozone11monthPPI
Friday: Germany11Monthly industrial order rate‧France11月流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧eurozone11Monthly retail sales

Related news
Germany12monthHICPInitial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%，触及逾三年最高水平
Germany12monthCPIInitial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)The initial value has increased compared to the previous month0.7%
Germany12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)The initial value has increased compared to the previous month1.0%
Germany12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0680 – 1.0800
support 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0000



JPY yen - 弱势盘整，探试120Gateway

美元周二刷新14Annual high103.82，因美国公债收益率恢复升势，并促使助美元兑避险日圆亦为走高。目前投资者对风险资产有强烈偏好。American Supply Management Association(ISM) According to published data, the United States12月制造业活动加速，触及两年最高水平。美元兑日圆曾涨至将近三周高位118.60。在周五备受期待的美国非农就业报告公布前，预料美元仍倾向处于高位震荡。

As shown in the chart trend, the relative strength indicators and random indices have fallen into the oversold area. It is estimated that after the recent consolidation market, the US dollar is expected to restart its upward trend, and the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is gradually rising120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68Afterwards, there will be2015Unbreakable in the fourth quarter of the year123.50The level, and the important mid-term goals are expected to be125Level, in2007Year and2015Years have touched higher than124.16and125.85. The support position will be reviewed first25Balance moving average116.20and115Horizontal, with larger supporting materials112Horizontal, this is the golden ratio38.2%The callback level.

Focus:
周五：日本前周投资海外债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly overtime pay

Related news
Japan12Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is52.4

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 116.20 – 115.00 – 112.00



GBP pound - 弱势盘整

英镑兑美元周二在2017年伦敦首个交易日内触及两个月低点，美元兑一篮子主要货币大涨至14年最高水平。英国12monthMarkit/CIPSManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to56.1, creating2014year6The highest since the beginning of the month,11Month is53.6。12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI高于路透调查中的全部预估值，亦高过预估中值53.1。但在美国公布12月制造业活动加速，触及两年最高水平后，美元大涨。英镑兑美元跌至1.2198，之后反弹回1.22中位水平。英镑兑美元在2016年挫跌16%，为八年来的最糟年度表现，而且多数跌幅是在2016year6month23日英国退欧公投后录得的。

预估英镑兑美元本周仍会延续弱势，上试阻力在50Balance moving average1.2420and1.25水平。关键见于100Balance moving average1.2650，在去年12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展近三周来的跌势。因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。下试支持则会瞩目于10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK11Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply‧britain12monthMatkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
Thursday: UK12monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI

Related news
BRC: UK12月商店物价较上年同期下跌1.4%, for2015year8月以来最小跌幅
britain12Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by56.1, for2014year6The highest since the beginning of the month

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2420 – 1.2500 – 1.2650*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - 呈技术超买

即市较近阻力可先留意1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05。至于下方支持料为25Balance moving average1.02，较大支持仍会瞩目于本月初未许破位的1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: Switzerland12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
Thursday: Switzerland12monthCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0200 – 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - 受中国购汇新规提振小幅上涨

澳元兑美元上升至0.7280美元，略微脱离上周触及的七个月低点0.7163；得益于中国收紧资本控制。市场对于中国资本外流尚未过去的担忧有些缓解。中国政府在周末完善个人foreign exchange信息申报管理，但个人年度购汇额度未变。澳元在去年1月大跌2.8%，当时人民币受资本严重外流影响而大幅贬值。

澳元兑美元在2016年最后一个交易日收报0.7199，年内下跌约0.6%，为连续第四年走低。在经历12月上旬的大幅滑落后，在此前澳元处于横盘状态，市场正瞩目于两个位置，一个为5month24The daily low reached0.7145，上周多日低位已见逼近此区，仅未有作进一步跌破；另一个位置则会直指0.70这个心理关口，倘若后市总见跌破此区，预料澳元将迎来更大幅度的下跌空间，延伸重要目标则为在去年一月中旬多日稳守着的0.68水平。阻力位则预估在0.7280and25Balance moving average0.7330For larger resistance0.75Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Australia11Monthly products/Service trade balance‧Import‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7280 – 0.7330 – 0.7500**
support 0.7145 – 0.7000** – 0.6800



NZD New Zealand dollars - 失陷250MA延续弱势

纽元走势承压，因乳品价格走弱。技术走势而言，纽元兑美元上月失陷250天平均线，后市短期有着持续下试倾向，下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676To the extent that0.65水平。预估向上阻力先看200Balance moving average0.7080The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7080 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 延续走弱

美元兑美元方面，位置上，较近支持仍会先参考50Balance moving average1.34and1.32The key is200Balance moving average1.3090水平。预估阻力在1.36Next level can be seen in1.3750and1.38Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Canada10monthGDPMonthly rate
1month3day(two): Canada12monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
1month5day(four): Canada11月生产者物价‧原材料价格
1month6day(five): Canada12Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada11Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3600 – 1.3750 – 1.3800
support 1.3400 – 1.3200 – 1.3090*






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)