The US dollar index experienced a slight decline and then rose and fell back

Huitong Network1month4Daily News - Wednesday(1month4day)During the Asian market session, the US dollar index experienced a slight decline and then rose and fell back. Trading is now in103.22frontline.

according toFX678Observation, Mitsubishi Tokyo UFJ(BTMU)The position is that the US economy is frequently reporting positive news, and the market is pricing the US dollar well. The yield spread of US two-year treasury bond bonds has fluctuated significantly, because the yield of US two-year treasury bond bonds jumped to1.21%, only slightly lower than2016year12Monthly peak recorded1.27%, this level is2009year8The highest in the month.

BTMUBefore Trump takes office, the euro may continue to rise, but the weakness of the US dollar is expected to be unsustainable

Since Trump won the election, the volatility of US two-year treasury bond bond yield has approached50Therefore, the US economic data will have to continue to show eye-catching performance to avoid the adjustment of short-term treasury bond bond yields. This week, the United States will release a large amount of economic data, including non farm payroll, to test the level of US bond yields. Any unexpected downturn in US economic data may push the euro against the US dollar1month20Recently, it continued to rise.

Trump will1month20Date of employment. Cited by Huitong NetworkCNBCNews, US President elect Trump on Tuesday(1month3day)On Twitter, it was stated that next Wednesday(1month11day)He will hold a press conference in New York.

However, compared to other currencies, the performance of the US dollar is expected to be more fragile. The short-term model of the bank shows that the US dollar has seen excessive gains against the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone. If any US economic data disappoints this week, these currencies may outperform the market.

That is to say, any weakening of the US dollar is highly likely to be temporary and will more reflect the surge in the US dollar since Trump won the election. relatively2016When the market expects the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes and the US dollar to weaken significantly, the current performance of the US economy is more robust.

2017This situation is not expected to happen again this year, and the market will begin to consider the Federal Reserve3The possibility of monthly interest rate hikes. As can be seen from this, Thursday Beijing time(1month5day)03:00The Federal Reserve's upcoming announcement12The minutes of the monthly monetary policy meeting will be worth a look.
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