pound: (2month18day)

英镑上周在连升四日后，于周五始见承压，在上周稍早稳步攀升后稍做喘息。英镑回落主要是因为技术性因素，英国央行周三公布强硬的通膨报告，有关其将大幅降 息的预期减弱后，英镑兑美元周四曾触及一周半高位1.9738。本周关注之英国数据有1月零售销售，另外亦会公布英国央行2month6-7日之会议记录。

波浪理论分析，英磅有机会刚开始运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)Within the waves(4)Stretching within the wavesc浪。英磅应已在07year11month9Daily high2.1160完成长达6 年多的上升浪，而2.1160开始将运行大型调整浪。由2.1160to07year11month16Daily low2.0352为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(1)伸 延浪，2.0352to11month28Daily high2.0832为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(2)Stretching waves,2.0832to12month6Daily low2.0178为第 (3)Stretching within the waves1Stretching small waves,2.0178to12month12Daily high2.0564为第2Stretching small waves,2.0564to12month24Daily low1.9753为大型AWithin the waves Section3Stretching small waves,1.9753to12month31Daily high2.0101为第4伸延反弹小浪，而2.0101Until this year1month22Daily low1.9336为大型AWithin the waves(I) Within the waves(3)Stretching within the waves5伸延小浪，亦代表第(3)The stretching waves come to an end here. and1.9336to1month30Daily high1.9957为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves (4)Stretching within the wavesaWaves,1.9957to2month7Daily low1.9386bybWaves,1.9386至现在有机会为c浪，预料此c浪有机会再反弹至1.9900- 2.0080之间水平。当运行完第(4)反弹伸延浪后，第(5)伸延浪即下跌浪将会展开；而此第(5)伸延浪将有机会下跌至1.9000以下水平。

GBP in1月中旬曾起步一轮升势，但其时受制于50天平均线，止步于1.9958，之后辗转回落至1.94关口才见触底。目前50The balance moving average is at1.9790 水平，估计为英镑中线形势之关键阻力，未有升破此区则英镑仍可望维持较大型之疲弱趋势。进一步阻力预计为1.99and1.9950水平。支持位方面，前期曾 一度探试之1.9335and1.94关口则为英镑当前重要支持。

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )