Crossing the Sea 2016year12month30day

Crossing the Sea 2016year12month30day

兹因假期关系，故本公司之贵金属及foreign exchange交易时间将作如下安排:

元旦假期
02/01/2017(Monday) - 休市
03/01/2017(Tuesday) - morning7时开市营业



Focus this week:
12month30day(Friday)
U.S.A12Month ChicagoPMI

1month3day(Tuesday)
U.S.A12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A11Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A12monthISMManufacturing Index

1month4day(Wednesday)
U.S.A12monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A12monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index

1month5day(Thursday)
U.S.A12月汽车销量年率  
U.S.A12monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A12monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value

1month6day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A12Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A12Monthly and weekly average working hours
U.S.A12Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A11Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A11Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Italy11Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value-0.1%
17：00 Italy11Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧Previous value-0.6%
22：45 U.S.A12Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast57.0‧Previous value57.6



News of the Week

U.S.A12The monthly consumer confidence index is113.7, creating2001year8The highest since the beginning of the month
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank12The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is positive8
U.S.A10Monthly standard and standard/CASE-SHILLER 20个大都会地区房价同比升5.1%
NAR: USA11月成屋待完成销售指数较上月下滑2.5%, to107.3, for10个月以来最低；较2015year11Lunar glide0.4%
U.S.A11月商品贸易收支初值为逆差653USD100mn
美国一周初请失业金人数为26.5ten thousand
美国一周续请失业金人数为210.2ten thousand
美国一周初请失业金人数四周均值为26.3ten thousand


12month29day
LondongoldMorning order price:1146.80
London gold afternoon fixing price:1145.90



Today's Introduction

美元冲高遇阻，涌现调整压力

美元周三自高位回落，至周四则呈进一步沽压。全美不动产协会(NAR)Announced on Wednesday, USA11月成屋待完成销售降至近一年最低水平，表明利率上升可能对楼市起到抑制作用。美元指数周四跌破103水准，但距离上周触及的14Annual high103.65仍然不远。即将迎来元旦佳节，本周市场基本延续上周的观望氛围，估计到下周回来市场首个焦点将指向周五公布的美国非农数据，料将影响美元能否在2017年的首周再续强势；随后一个更为全球所瞩目的焦点，应当是特朗普即将于1month20日正式上任，关键在于其施行的各项政策以外，有关美联储(FED)的货币政策会否面临考验亦将引人注目。

在美元指数而言，过去两周大致处于窄幅区间横盘，继12month20Daily contact103.65之后，本周三曾试图再冲击此高位，但仅在103.63止步后则掉回落，酝酿着回吐风险，向下将会聚焦102.50水平，视为近期争持的底部，倘若破位，美指料会迎来较具规模之调整。若果以11month9Daily low95.89至本月高位103.65Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回吐水准见于100.71，此区同时亦接近于50天平均线；扩展至50%and61.8%的回吐幅度则会分别达至99.80and98.85。向上阻力则仍会继续留意103.65Further, we will see that105and107.30Horizontal.

CFETS篮子货币数量扩增美元权重调降

ChinaForeign exchange transactions中心(CFETS)周四宣布，明年起CFETS人民币汇率指数货币篮子新增11种货币至24种，其中美元权重由0.2640Down to0.2240，以进一步完善CFETS人民币汇率指数生成发布机制，增强汇率指数货币篮子代表性。外汇交易中心的公告显示，2017yearCFETS货币篮子新增11个币种，包括南非兰特、韩元、阿联酋迪拉姆、沙特里亚尔、匈牙利福林、波兰兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、土耳其里拉、墨西哥比索。其中阿联酋迪拉姆和沙特里亚尔的权重分别为0.0187and0.0199。   



XAU London Gold - 超跌反弹

尽管第四季出现大幅下滑，但金价今年至今已涨逾9%。此前曾连续三年收跌。金价本周涨约2.5% ，有望创6月初以来最大单周涨幅。黄金在12月份累计下跌近1%，本季累计下跌约12%。金价12月的跌势主要归因于市场对美国经济的乐观看法，看好特朗普政府拟议的基建及支出活动，巩固了对于2017年利率及股价走升的预期。

技术图表所见，金价在11month9日曾高见1337.40美元，亦即是特朗普胜出总统大选当日，但此后金价一落千丈，至今已录得超过200美元跌幅，亦即下跌逾16%；而期间未有出现较具规模的技术反弹。图表可见，相对强弱指标及随机指数在徘徊超卖区域多时后，目前出现回升迹象；同时，MACD与讯号线呈利好交叉，在现阶段价位横行盘整的情况下，很大机会金价即将迎来反扑。而金价近月来持续受压于10天平均线，至本周终见可突破目前位于1134of10天线，将更可确认金价的回升倾向，延伸上涨目标预估在1168and1174美元。若果以近两个月的累积跌幅计算，38.2%的反弹水平将会见至1204.50US dollars. Below is an estimate of support for1153and1147美元，较大支撑见预料于1137USD.

London Gold12month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1153 – 1168
Resistance level:1174 – 1193
Support bit:1147 – 1137

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month28Day - 885.04ton
11month29Day - 885.04ton
11month30Day - 883.86ton
12month1Day - 870.22ton
12month2Day - 870.22ton
12month5Day - 869.90ton
12month6Day - 869.90ton
12month7Day - 863.67ton
12month8Day - 860.71ton
12month9Day - 857.45ton
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton
12month14Day - 849.44ton
12month15Day - 842.33ton
12month16Day - 836.99ton
12month19Day - 828.10ton
12month20Day - 828.10ton
12month21Day - 824.54ton
12month22Day - 824.54ton
12month27Day - 823.36ton
12month28Day - 823.36ton
12month29Day - 823.36ton


2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year12month8day)

Global:33181.3ton(+88.9ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton(+4.1ton)
Russia(7)：1583.1ton(+40.4ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Horizontal plate to be changed

伦敦白银方面，图表所见，鉴于RSI及随机指数均呈初步回升，估计银价若可重新稳踏16美元上方，则有着触底回稳的迹象；其后阻力预估在25Balance moving average16.40and16.70To the next level17.30To the extent that200Balance moving average17.77美元。另一方面，下方支持则预估在16.00and15.50美元，较大支持预料为15.00USD.

London Silver12month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.00 – 16.40
Resistance level:16.70 – 16.90 – 17.30
Support bit:15.80 – 15.50 – 15.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
12month5Day - 10761.66ton
12month6Day - 10761.66ton
12month7Day - 10761.66ton
12month8Day - 10664.32ton
12month9Day - 10664.32ton
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton
12month14Day - 10608.28ton
12month15Day - 10534.54ton
12month16Day - 10575.83ton
12month19Day - 10575.83ton
12month20Day - 10552.24ton
12month21Day - 10552.24ton
12month22Day - 10581.73ton
12month27Day - 10617.12ton
12month28Day - 10617.12ton
12month29Day - 10617.12ton



EUR euro - 反弹受制，后市续呈弱势

欧元周五跳涨至三周高位，市场交投淡静，但今年全年或下跌，因外界预期美国总统当选人特朗普的政策将提振通胀 ，并促使美国联邦储备理事会(FED)更频繁加息。在2016年最后一个交易日，美元指数下滑，一度触及101.99Below12month20日所及14Annual high103.65。欧元兑美元一度短暂跳涨至12month8The highest level since the beginning of the day1.0650上方水平。欧元兑美元今年为下跌3%。

欧元兑美元走势方面，在过去一个月的走势，欧元原先是一路力守1.05这个关口，但于12month15日出现失守，因此，目前返回1.05水平之上，可望暂告回稳。较大阻力则料为1.0650and50Balance moving average1.0720水平。下方支撑则回看1.0360，进一步则会看至1.0250and1.01水平，更为瞩目的则指向1.00这个关口。

Focus:
Friday: Italy11monthPPI
1month2day(one): Italy12monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany12monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
1month3day(two): France12monthHICPthe annual rate‧Germany12monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧Changes in the number of unemployed individuals‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate
1month4day(three): France12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧MarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Italy12monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧Germany12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone12monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧HICPthe annual rate‧扣除食品和能源HICPthe annual rate‧Italy12monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
1month5day(four)：意大利第三季公共预算赤字与GDPRatio‧eurozone11monthPPI
1month6day(five): Germany11Monthly industrial order rate‧France11月流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧Import‧Export‧eurozone11Monthly retail sales‧12Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数

Related news
消息人士称意大利政府将注资约65亿欧元救助西雅那银行

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0720 – 1.0800
support 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250 – 1.0100



JPY yen - 弱势盘整，探试120Gateway

美元兑日圆曾跌至12month14日以来的低点116.05日圆。美元兑日圆今年下跌2.9%On11month8日美国总统大选后已经大大抹去跌幅。特朗普胜选引发市场预期其政府可能采取推高通胀率的刺激政策 ，而且美联储也会以更多次的加息来予以应对，这推动美国公债收益率触及多年高点。但周四时，美国七年期公债标售在今年最后一个全天交易日获强劲需求，压低了美国公债收益率，令美元的吸引力减损。

美元兑日圆走势，相对强弱指标及随机指数落入超卖区域，估计经过上周的整固行情后，美元将重新启动升势，美元兑日圆倾向逐步上试120Gateway,120It has been widely regarded by market participants as an important level for continued upward movement. If crossing this zone, it may trigger more follow-up buying in the US dollar. Further targets will first refer to the high point at the end of January this year121.68，之后则是去年第四季力试未破的123.50水准。支持位则会先回看117and115水平，较大支撑料为114Horizontal.

Focus:
1month4day(three): Japan12月日制造业PMI
1month6day(five)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly overtime pay

Related news
Japan11月工业生产较前月增加1.5%
Japan11Monthly retail sales increased compared to the same period last year1.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 120.00* – 121.68 – 123.50*
support 117.00 – 115.00 – 114.00



GBP pound - 技术面呈超卖

英镑兑美元本周三触及两个月低位1.2197，但随着美元回落，英镑周四已见显著回升，重返1.2250水准上方。关于英国退欧谈判出现新的不确定性，令英镑持续承压，但经过接近半年时间的消化，以致汇价已从六月时的1.50水平滑落至目前的1.22水准，跌幅约18.6%，预估短期进一步的下跌幅度有限。再者，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已自超卖区域出现回升迹象，或会预示即将迎来一定程度的反弹。上试阻力预估在50Balance moving average1.2420and1.25水平。关键见于100Balance moving average1.2670，在本月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展近三周来的跌势。因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。下方支持则会瞩目于10month25Daily low1.2081To the extent that1.20At the checkpoint, further exploration of supporting materials is needed1.18Horizontal.

Focus:
1month3day(two): UK12monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
1month4day(three): UK11Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply‧britain12monthMatkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
1month5day(four): UK12monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI

Related news
NATIONWIDE: UK12月房价较上月上涨0.8%, UK12月房价较上年同期上涨4.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2420 – 1.2500 – 1.2670*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - 呈技术超买

即市较近阻力可先留意1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05。至于下方支持料为25Balance moving average1.0120，较大支持仍会瞩目于本月初未许破位的1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9830。

Related news
UBS11月瑞士消费者信心指数升至1.43

Focus:
1month3day(two)Switzerland12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
1month5day(four)Switzerland12monthCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0120 – 1.0000* – 0.9830



AUD AUD - 料短暂喘稳

澳元周五小涨，受假期影响交投清淡，但12月料将连续第三个月录得月度跌幅。澳元在12月仍下跌近2%，今年已下跌0.6%，为连续第四年走低。数据显示，第三季澳洲经济出现自2011年以来的首次萎缩，引发对经济可能衰退的担忧，并令澳元承压。

澳元兑美元方面，过去两周汇价跌势急促，在上周跌落至0.72水平下方后，市场正瞩目于两个位置，一个为5month24The daily low reached0.7145，另一个则是直指0.70这个心理关口，而近日暂见在此两区上方持稳，可见具有一定的支持力度，但若然后市总见跌破此区，预料澳元将迎来更大幅度的下跌空间，延伸重要目标则为在今年一月中旬多日稳守着的0.68水平。阻力位则预估在0.7280and25Balance moving average0.7350For larger resistance0.75水平。相对强弱指标及随机指数回升，或会示意澳元短线暂告喘稳；不过，MACD与讯号线呈利淡交叉，中长期预料澳元仍会以探低发展为主轴。

Related news
Australia11月民间信贷经季节调整后较前月增长0.5%
Australia11月房屋信贷经季节调整后较前月增长0.5%

Focus:
1month6day(five): Australia11Monthly products/Service trade balance‧Import‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7280 – 0.7350 – 0.7500**
support 0.7145 – 0.7000** – 0.6800



NZD New Zealand dollars - 失陷250MA延续弱势

纽元兑美元周五几无变动，距离上周触及的0.6863美元的七个月低位不远。纽元本周料将收高1.2%，此前已连续两周下跌。继连续三年走低之后，今年有望上涨2%。

汇价本月失陷250天平均线，后市短期有着持续下试倾向，下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676To the extent that0.65水平。预估向上阻力先看200Balance moving average0.7075The next key material is0.7250and0.74Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand11月食品价格指数较前月下降0.1%, up from the same period last year0.6%
New Zealand11The monthly trade deficit is7.05Billions of New Zealand dollars
New Zealand as of11月的一年贸易逆差为31.8Billions of New Zealand dollars

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7075 – 0.7250 – 0.7400
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 延续走弱

位置上，较近支持仍会先参考50Balance moving average1.3380and1.32The key is250Balance moving average1.3080水平。预估阻力在1.36Next level can be seen in1.3750and1.38Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Canada10monthGDPMonthly rate
1month3day(two): Canada12monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
1month5day(four): Canada11月生产者物价‧原材料价格
1month6day(five): Canada12Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada11Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

Related news
Canada10Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month1.1%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3600 – 1.3750 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3080*




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)