pound(1month21Solstice1month25day)

英镑近几周承压，因疲弱的数据令人益发预期英国降息，而吉弗的言论使得投资者将注意力转向通膨。英国央行副总裁吉弗(John Gieve)表示，金融市场动荡极大地增强了英国央行降息的理由，但通膨压力上升意味着决策者面临艰难选择。他在对商界人士的讲话中称，银行体系可能在相当长一段时期内面临困境，过去数次升息正开始对经济产生影响。他亦指出决策者面临食品和石油价格上涨的局面，英镑贬值又放大了这一影响。其言论被视为降息预期可能过度的迹象，英镑兑美元一度回升至1.9790，然而周五之零售数据将再对英镑形成打压，英国12月零售销售意外下跌0.4%，为近一年首次月度下跌，数据巩固了市场预期，即英国今年至少降息100个基点。数据亦令英镑再次承压回落至关键之1.95关口水准附近。本周市场焦点将为英国第四季经济成长初值数据以及英国央行1月会议纪录。

波浪理论分析，英磅刚开始运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)Within the waves(4)伸延浪。英磅由2.1160Until last year11month16Daily low2.0352为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(1)Stretching waves,2.0352to11month28Daily high2.0832为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(2)Stretching waves,2.0832to12month6Daily low2.0178为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)Stretching within the waves1Stretching small waves,2.0178to12month12Daily high2.0564为大型回吐浪AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)Stretching within the waves2Stretching small waves, 2.0564to12month24Daily low1.9753为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)Stretching within the waves3Stretching small waves,1.9753to12month31Daily high2.0101为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)Stretching within the waves4伸延反弹小浪，2.0101Until this year1month11Daily low1.9482为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)Stretching within the waves5伸延小浪，亦代表大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(3)伸延浪在此完结。由1.9482至现在有机会仍为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(4)伸延浪，预料此第(4)伸延浪反弹33.3%by1.9932, rebound38.2%by1.9997, rebound50%by2.0157, rebound61.8%by2.0316。暂时以33.3% - 50%机会最大。当运行完第(4)反弹伸延浪后，第(5)下跌伸延浪将会展开。

英镑走势方面，上周于低位1.95关口附近似乎寻获较强劲支撑，但上方似乎亦受制于1.98关口，形成反覆之争持局面。技术图表所见，英镑上周之反弹受制于延伸自去年11月之下降趋向线以及25天平均线，此外，市场避险情绪高涨亦阻截英镑，现阶段仍会视上述指标为重要阻力，25The balance moving average is at1.9780水平，与下降趋向线位置重叠，技术角度看突破此区将有望续会延伸上涨动力，下一级阻力将可望看至1.99and2.00At the checkpoint, if there is significant resistance, it will be2.0040水平。然而，从基本形势上所见，英镑之高息本质或会在目前风雨飘摇之时间中承压，若再而配合技术上无法突破25天平均线，则形势上终归维持偏弱。预计1.95若然失守则更见沽压沉重，此区同时为20日保历加通道下轨，向下进一步至50日通道下轨则会探至1.9350水平甚或1.92Horizontal.

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )