Crossing the Sea 2016year12month14day

Crossing the Sea 2016year12month14day

Focus this week:
12month14day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A11Monthly industrial production‧Capacity utilization rate
U.S.A11Monthly manufacturing output rate

12month15day(Thursday)
U.S.A12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
美国联邦基金利率目标   
U.S.A11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A11Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
美国第三季流动帐平衡
U.S.A12New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A12Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
United States12monthNAHBHousing market index
U.S.A11Cleveland Federal ReserveCPI
U.S.A10Monthly overall capital flow‧外资购买美国公债

12month16day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly Building Permit‧housing starts



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Italy11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate final value‧Previous value-0.1%
17：00 Italy11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate final value‧Previous value+0.1%
17：00 Italy11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Monthly rate final value‧Previous value-0.2%
17：00 Italy11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate final value‧Previous value+0.1%
17：30 britain11Monthly unemployment benefit application rate‧Previous value increase9.8Thousand people
17：30 UK as of10According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧Previous value4.8%
17：30 britain11月平均每周薪资所得(包括奖金)the annual rate‧Previous value+2.3%
17：30 britain11月平均每周薪资所得(不包括奖金)the annual rate‧Previous value+2.4%
18：00 eurozone10Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value-0.8%
18：00 eurozone10Monthly industrial production annual rate‧forecast+1.0%‧Previous value+1.2%
18：00 Switzerland12monthZEWInvestor confidence index‧Front value positive8.9
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧Previous value+0.8%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Front value remains unchanged
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIthe annual rate‧Previous value+1.2%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value-0.2%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate‧Previous value+1.6%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIMonthly rate‧Previous value-0.1%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.8%
21：30 U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.8%
22：15 U.S.A11Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast-0.1%‧Front value remains unchanged
22：15 U.S.A11Monthly capacity utilization rate‧forecast75.1%‧Previous value75.3%
22：15 U.S.A11Monthly manufacturing output rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.2%
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly commercial inventory rate‧forecast-0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%

12month15day (Thursday)
00：00 U.S.A12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value55.22
00：00 Canada12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value49.78
03：00 美国公布议息决议



News of the Week

U.S.A11The monthly budget deficit is1,370USD100mn
U.S.A2017The budget deficit for the fiscal year is1,810USD100mn
U.S.A11月出口物价较前月下降0.1%，进口物价较前月下降0.3%


12month13day
LondongoldMorning order price:1157.35
London gold afternoon fixing price:1158.55



Today's Introduction

U.S.A11月进口物价创九个月来最大按月跌幅，受油价下滑拖累

U.S.A11月进口物价创下九个月来最大跌幅，因石油价格下滑，美元重新走强有可能令输入型通胀继续保持疲弱。 劳工部周二公布，上月进口物价下降0.3%，10月下修为上涨0.4%。11月的降幅为2The largest since the beginning of the month,9Month and10月均为上涨。报告还显示11月出口价格下降0.1%, decreased compared to the same period last year0.3%。

美元兑一篮子主要货币周二持稳，因不确定美国联邦储备理事会(FED)在备受关注的政策会议后将暗示以缓慢还是快速的步伐升息。市场普遍预期周三美联储将升息。不过，市场不太确定，美联储将鉴于公债收益率近期大幅上升和美元上涨而暗示将采取较谨慎的步伐升息，还是因对美国经济加速的信心增强而采取更积极的步伐升息。美联储官员在9月作出的中值预估是，明年升息两次。如果本周美联储升息，这将是去年12月以来的首次加息，也只是2007-2009年金融危机以来的第二次升息。从11month8日美国总统选举至上周五，美元指数上升近4%。这走势很大程度是因预期美国候任总统特朗普将增加支出和举债，从而刺激经济成长和推高通胀。



XAU London Gold - 关注联储议息，金价料续承压

金价周三小涨，因美元走软，且投资者等待美联储(FED)今日稍晚将公布的政策会议决定。外界普遍预期美联储本周会议将升息，投资人正观察2017年进一步升息的线索。美国利率上升将造成持有黄金的机会成本增加 。美联储会议结果将在深夜3时宣布，3时半主席耶伦将召开记者会。

技术图表所见，在前一周早段多番受制1200美元关口后，金价上周又见维持走低；同时，亦见10天平均线压制着金价，目前10The balance moving average is at1168水平，可作为较近阻力参考，下一级关键瞩目于1180and1191美元，较大阻力料在1200美元关口。反之，倘若金价仍是受制于1200美元关口，则预料金价仍会继续探低趋势，下方支持预估在1158and1147美元，较大支撑见预料于1137and1117USD.

London Gold12month14day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1158 – 1170
Resistance level:1180 – 1191 – 1230
Support bit:1147 – 1137 – 1117

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton
11month25Day - 885.04ton
11month28Day - 885.04ton
11month29Day - 885.04ton
11month30Day - 883.86ton
12month1Day - 870.22ton
12month2Day - 870.22ton
12month5Day - 869.90ton
12month6Day - 869.90ton
12month7Day - 863.67ton
12month8Day - 860.71ton
12month9Day - 857.45ton
12month12Day - 856.26ton
12month13Day - 856.26ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
1Monthly goldoptionDue date:12month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year11month2day)

Global:33092.4ton(+114.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton(-0.3ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1838.5ton(+5.0ton)
Russia(7)：1542.7ton(+16.6ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价呈筑底形态

伦敦白银方面，在金价接连下挫之际，银价表现明显较为稳健，尤其过去两周见温和回升，上周三曾高见17.24美元。图表所见，银价暂见在16美元关口上方持稳，11month23Daily and25日的低位均触及16.14美元。较近阻力预估在200Balance moving average17.74美元，在十月份为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考，进一步看至17.90and18.50美元。另一方面，下方支持则预估在16.40and16.00美元，较大支持预料为15.20USD.

London Silver12month14day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.40 – 17.40
Resistance level:17.90 – 18.50
Support bit:16.00 – 15.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month28Day - 10766.50ton
11month29Day - 10766.50ton
11month30Day - 10766.50ton
12month1Day - 10766.50ton
12month2Day - 10761.66ton
12month5Day - 10761.66ton
12month6Day - 10761.66ton
12month7Day - 10761.66ton
12month8Day - 10664.32ton
12month9Day - 10664.32ton
12month12Day - 10664.32ton
12month13Day - 10608.28ton



EUR euro - 联储议息在即，欧元维持弱势

美元周三稍事休整，投资者静观美国联邦储备理事会(FED)是否会暗示未来将加快升息步伐，以应对特朗普上台后可能增加财政支出的影响。市场普遍预计，美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)几乎肯定会在周三稍晚结束的政策会议上把指标利率提高0.25Percentage points to0.50-0.75% 。这或将是自2007-08年金融危机以来美联储第二次升息，第一次是在去年12月。美元指数小幅下跌至101.00，从周一盘初触及的本周高位101.78下滑。欧元兑美元最高攀升至1.0660上方，进一步脱离了周一触及的一周低点1.0525。

技术图表所见，继上周之后，1.05关口在周一再次勉力守稳，但若果1.05这个半百关口于后市还是出现失守，将会加剧欧元弱势发展。预估较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.08，十月份低位1.0848将为下一依据，同时亦是50天平均线所在位置。反之，倘若失守1.05，延伸下一级支持为去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380and1.0250Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Italy11monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone10Monthly industrial production
Thursday: France12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧eurozone12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧comprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: Germany11Monthly wholesale price index‧France12Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Italy10Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance

Related news
Germany11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较前月持平
Germany11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)终值较上年同期上升0.7%
Germany11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)终值较前月上升0.1%
Germany11monthCPIThe final value is an increase compared to the same period last year0.8%，创两年最大同比升幅
Germany11月批发物价较前月上涨0.1%, up from the same period last year0.8%
France11month HICPThe final value remained unchanged compared to the previous month and increased compared to the same period last year0.7%

意大利总理真蒂洛尼组建新政府，但中右翼小党威胁退出

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0800 – 1.0848
support 1.0500* – 1.0456 – 1.0380 – 1.0250



JPY yen - 美元续受追捧，日圆延续弱势

一项倍受关注的日本央行调查显示，第四季日本大型制造业者信心六个季度以来首次改善，升至一年高点。股市上涨与日圆下跌让依赖出口的日本经济前景变得光明。这项乐观的调查结果增强了市场预期，认为日本央行在未来数月不会扩大刺激措施。日本央行周三公布的短观调查报告显示，服务业信心较三个月前持平，突显这个全球第三大经济体的复苏脆弱且不均衡。短观调查显示，12月当季大型制造业景气判断指数为正10，高于三个月前的正6，与市场预估中值一致，并创下2015year12月以来的最高水平。大型非制造业景气判断指数与三个月前持平，为正18，市场预估为正19。调查显示，大型制造业者和大型非制造业者预计未来三个月企业景气将略微恶化，表明对于正面的市场趋势是否会持续，企业仍持谨慎态度。本次短观调查显示，大型制造业计划将截至明年3月的财年资本支出提高5.5%，上次调查显示是提高6.3%。路透调查分析师对本次资本支出的预估中值为增加6.1%。

美元兑日圆小幅上涨至115.25日圆，但仍远远低于周一触及的10Month high116.12日圆。美元兑日圆自11month8日美国大选以来大幅上扬了10%左右，一些市场参与者急于获利了结。市场预期特朗普将减税、提高财政支出，并能在短期内提高美国经济增长率，这提振了美国公债收益率及股价，令美元更具吸引力。周一，10年期美国公债收益率触及2.5%上方的逾两年高位，30年美国公债收益率攀升至17个月高点附近。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已自超买区域回落，故若短期汇价回落至10Balance moving average114.30水平下方，预料将出现较大的调整幅度。较近支撑先看112and110关口。倘若以11month9Daily low101.15Last week's high position114.82Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%The level of feedback is109.60and108水平。至于向上的115.30水平，亦是25个月平均线位置，若后市明确企稳，预计延伸阻力将指向116and118Level.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
Friday: Japan12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 115.30 – 116.00 – 118.00
support 114.30 – 112.00 – 110.00 – 109.60



GBP pound - 处整理走势

英镑兑美元走势，在上周连日下跌后，本周早段重新攀升，但预料向上可能仍是会受制于100天平均线，上周英镑升幅正是受限此技术指标，目前100The balance moving average is located at1.2770，倘若破位，进一步攀升目标料为1.2890and1.30水平。至于向下支撑则瞩目于起延自10月下旬的上升趋向线，至今位于1.2480，较大支持位预估在1.2380and1.23Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK11Monthly unemployment benefit application rate‧平均每周薪资所得年率‧UK as of10According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
Thursday: UK11Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy‧britain12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Central bank interest rate determination‧Scale of quantitative easing‧货币政策委员会(MPC)Voting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)
Friday: UK12monthCBITotal industrial order difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2800 – 1.3000
support 1.2500 – 1.2380 – 1.2300



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Focus:
12month14day(three)Switzerland11Monthly Producer/Import prices‧Switzerland12monthZEWInvestor confidence index
12month15day(four)：瑞士第四季利率目标区间

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - 再度考验0.75Gateway

一项衡量澳洲消费者信心的指标12月下滑至八个月低点，此前有关国内经济状况的数据令人失望，动摇了消费者对于未来一年前景的信心。墨尔本研究院(Melbourne Institute)和西太平洋银行(Westpac Bank)针对1,200人的调查显示，澳洲12月消费者信心指数较11Monthly decline3.9%。11月时为下降1.1% 该指数降至97.3，表明持悲观态度者多于乐观者。一项衡量未来12个月经济前景的指数下降5.2%，衡量未来五年经济前景的指数则下滑2.5%。衡量家庭财务状况与上年同期比较情况的指标下降2.0%Measuring the future12个月家庭财务现状的指标下滑1.8%。

澳元兑美元周三在关键的0.75阻碍位附近走势维艰，尽管数次攻破此处。对澳洲就业市场的担忧，以及美联储会议前的市场心态，都拖累了澳元。澳元走势近来受限，因美元大涨。特朗普上月赢得美国总统大选后，对于通胀升高的预期激励美国公债收益率和美元双双上扬。投资者主要关注美联储今日稍后会议，料将在今年来首次升息。市场已几乎完全消化了升息25个基点的可能。周四还将公布澳洲就业数据，该数据最近受到兼职就业的影响很大，令人担忧该国的通胀前景。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数开始自超买区域出现回落，同时，澳元兑美元走势近两周亦多番受制于0.75关口，故若本周依然没可出现突破，澳元兑美元或将面临回落风险。较近阻力预料为100Balance moving average0.7575Horizontal, visible to the next level0.7740。支持位则会下望0.7380and0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145。

Focus:
Thursday: Australia11Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate
Friday: Australia12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500** – 0.7575 – 0.7740
support 0.7380 – 0.7290 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - test250MA

纽元兑美元走势方面，纽元前期浮沉在0.70区间上，在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹，但基于美元强势，纽元升幅受限。估计纽元在250Balance moving average position0.6965将会备受考验，倘若下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着250天平均线，技术上有机会组成双底型态，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看100Balance moving average0.72and0.7265水平，下一级关键则料为0.74Horizontal.

Related news
Thursday: New Zealand11月制造业表现指数
Friday: New Zealand11月海外投资者持有新西兰公债比例

Focus:
纽西兰第三季制造业销售量较前季增长2.1%，乳品和肉类销量增1.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7200 – 0.7265 – 0.7400
support 0.7000 – 0.6965 – 0.6800 – 0.6676



CAD Cad - 1.30关口再受考验

过去两周美元兑加元均处于下行走势，主要是受到油价大涨所牵动，汇价目前来到1.31水平，预计将进一步挑战1.30Pass, at10month19日，汇价已曾触近1.30关口，但在其时未有跌破的情况下，随后大幅度回升，因此，目前再临此区关口，美元可能仍会获一度程度的技术支撑，尤其在周三晚美联储议息会议之前，美元兑加元的下跌动力或会放缓。此外，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦已横盘于超卖区域多时，故需慎防汇价随时超卖反弹。位置上，较近支持先参考1.30and1.2820；关键则指向1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区。预估阻力在100Balance moving average1.3190and1.3360Next level can be seen in1.35Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Canada12Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Canada10Monthly manufacturing sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3190 – 1.3360 – 1.3500
support 1.3000* – 1.2820 – 1.2650*





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)