Crossing the Sea 2016year12month5day

Crossing the Sea 2016year12month5day

Focus this week:
12month5day(Monday)
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A11Monthly employment trend index
U.S.A11monthISMNon manufacturing index

12month6day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly International Trade Balance
美国第三季单位劳工成本修订
美国第三季非农业生产率
U.S.A10Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A10月扣除运输的工厂订单月率
U.S.A10Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

12month7day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10monthJOLTS职位空缺数

12month8day(Thursday)
U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Credit
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

12month9day(Friday)
U.S.A12月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值
U.S.A10Monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A10Monthly retail sales rate



Important economic data released today:
06：30 Australia11monthAIGService Industry Index‧Previous value50.5
08：30 澳洲第三季商业库存‧Previous value+0.3%
08：30 Australia11monthANZ整体招聘广告‧Previous value+1.0%
09：45 China11月财新服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)
13：00 Japan11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Previous value42.3
16：45 Italy11monthMarkit/ADACICIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value51.0
16：50 France11monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value52.6
16：50 France11monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value52.3
16：55 Germany11monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧forecast55.0‧Previous value55.0
16：55 Germany11monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast54.9‧Previous value54.9
17：00 eurozone11monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast54.1‧Previous value54.1
17：00 eurozone11monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast54.1‧Previous value54.1
17：30 eurozone12monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧Previous value13.1
17：30 britain11monthMarkit/CIPSCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value54.5
18：00 eurozone10Monthly retail sales rate‧Previous value-0.2%
18：00 eurozone10Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value+1.1%
22：45 U.S.A11monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.7
22：45 U.S.A11monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.9
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly employment trend index‧Previous value129.0
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Non manufacturing index‧forecast55.3‧Previous value54.8
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)商业活动分项指数‧Previous value57.7
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧Previous value53.1
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value57.7
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧Previous value56.6



12month2day
LondongoldMorning order price:1171.65
London gold afternoon fixing price:1173.50



Today's Introduction

迎来本周，除了意大利修宪公投最终结果受到瞩目以外，澳洲央行、加拿大央行、和欧洲央行会议亦将值得关注，此外还有多位央行官员讲话，可望一窥其利率政策立场以及对经济的看法。经济数据方面，有多项PMI、CPI、贸易收支和GDP数据将会公布。



XAU London Gold - 金价料短暂回稳，但中线弱势依然

last weekOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) 达成减产协议后油价大涨，提升了通胀预期和美国公债收益率，进而支撑了美元，但在周五又呈下滑，因非农就业报告尚未达到〝尽善尽美〞，令投资者对明年美国升息的路径产生疑虑，再加上美元大涨之后的获利了结压力，打压美元周五回落至全周最低100.62，尾盘报100.66。虽然美国11月失业率回落至逾九年低位4.6%, and11Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities17.8万，但9Month and10月数据被下修；11月平均时薪按年增幅从10Of2.8%Descend to2.5%。特朗普效应在11月引领美元涨势，美元指数曾一度触及13年半高点102.05。而近期美国公布数据也大多向好，市场因而愈发认为美联储本月稍晚几乎笃定升息，明年还将再有两度升息。

美元走强近期走强打压非美货币和黄金，过去一个月时间，金价累计下跌逾160USD, down by12%，周四金价曾跌至2month5The lowest in recent days1160.38美元，虽然周五喘稳，但仍录得第四周连跌。投资者似乎止逐步撒离金市，这可以从黄金上市交易基金(ETF)的卖盘明显看出。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust黄金持仓量上周五下降1.54%to870.22吨，上月黄金持仓量下降超过6%。

伦敦黄金走势，技术图表所见，在上周早段多番受制1200美元关口后，金价又见维持走低；同时，亦见10天平均线压制着金价，目前10The balance moving average is at1188，可作为较近阻力参考，下一级关键仍会瞩目于1200美元关口，较大阻力料在1214and1234美元。反之，倘若金价进入本周仍是受制于1200美元关口，则预料金价仍会继续探低趋势，下方支持预估在1169and1153美元，较大支撑见预料于1136and1120USD.

London Gold12month5 –9Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1196 – 1216 – 1233 – 1253
Support bit:1157 – 1140 – 1122 – 1103

London Gold12month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1162 – 1187
Resistance level:1199 – 1216 – 1234
Support bit:1149 – 1140 – 1130

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton
11month18Day - 915.29ton
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton
11month25Day - 885.04ton
11month28Day - 885.04ton
11month29Day - 885.04ton
11month30Day - 883.86ton
12month1Day - 870.22ton
12month2Day - 870.22ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
1Monthly goldoptionDue date:12month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year11month2day)

Global:33092.4ton(+114.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton(-0.3ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1838.5ton(+5.0ton)
Russia(7)：1542.7ton(+16.6ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价缓步探低

伦敦白银方面，银价过去两周亦是步步探低，暂见在16美元关口上方持稳，11month23Daily and25日的低位均触及16.14美元。技术走势而言，较近阻力预估在17.00and17.40，关键则会是200Balance moving average17.68美元，在十月份为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考。下方支持预估在16.00美元关口，较大支持预料为15.60and15.00USD.

London Silver12month5 – 9Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.10 – 17.30 – 17.90 – 18.88
Support bit:16.30 – 15.90 – 15.30 – 14.90

London Silver12month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.00 – 17.20
Resistance level:17.70 – 17.90 – 18.30
Support bit:15.50 – 15.30 – 14.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton
11month18Day - 11891.89ton
11month21Day - 11891.89ton
11month22Day - 10796.00ton
11month23Day - 10796.00ton
11month24Day - 10796.00ton
11month25Day - 10766.50ton
11month28Day - 10766.50ton
11month29Day - 10766.50ton
11month30Day - 10766.50ton
12month1Day - 10766.50ton
12month2Day - 10761.66ton



EUR euro - 公投风险或令欧元重陷弱势

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数自超买区域回落，有机会经过本周的整理走势后，或许下周又重启跌势。若果1.05这个半百关口出现失守，则会加剧欧元弱势发展。预估较近阻力先参考1.07and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。反之，延伸下一级支持为去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380and1.03Horizontal.

Focus:
Monday: Italy11monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France11monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany11monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone11monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone12monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone10Monthly retail sales
Tuesday: Germany10Monthly industrial order rate‧欧元区第三季GDP修订
Wednesday: Germany10Monthly industrial output rate
周四：欧洲12Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate
Friday: Germany10Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0680 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0500 – 1.0456 – 1.0380



JPY yen - 美元续受追捧，日圆延续弱势

技术图表所见，预料美元兑日圆上方阻力先参考100Monthly average line114.90水平，下一级看至25Monthly average line115.30and116。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，较近支撑见于110.80Horizontal.

Focus:
12month5day(one): Japan11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
12month6day(two): Japan10Monthly overtime pay
12month7day(three): Japan12Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index‧Japan11monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan10Monthly simultaneous indicators‧Leading indicators
12month8day(four): Japan10Monthly current account‧日本第三季GDPRevised month on month annual rate‧GDP季订修订‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index
12month9day(five)：日本第四季大型制造业景气判断指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.90 – 115.30 – 116.00
support 110.80 – 110.00



GBP pound - 技术超买

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑经历在本月上旬的反弹走势后，过去一周波动收窄，大致处于1.23to1.25的区间内争持。自上周一跌破1.25水平后，则连日向上亦受制此区域，故1.25仍是较近阻力参考，而50Balance moving average1.2530则为下一级阻力，倘若可冲破此区，进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向再陷弱势，向下瞩目于上升趋向线1.2320，较大支持位预估在1.2180and1.2080Horizontal.

Focus:
12month5day(one): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI
12month6day(two): UK11monthBRC零售销售年率
12month7day(three): UK11monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧three monthsHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index‧britain10Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output
12month8day(four): UK11monthRICSPrice difference
12month9day(five): UK10月建筑业产出‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500/30* – 1.2700 – 1.2800
support 1.2320 – 1.2180 – 1.2080



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Focus:
12month6day(two)Switzerland11monthCPI
12month9day(five)Switzerland11Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - Constrained0.75Gateway

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数开始自超买区域出现回落，同时，连同周三市况，澳元兑美元本周已连续三日受制于0.75关口，若短线依然没可出现突破，估计澳元又将面临走低风险。较近阻力预料为100Balance moving average0.7580水平，下一级看至0.7740。支持位则会回看0.7380and0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145。

Focus:
Monday: Australia11monthAIGService Industry Index‧ANZ整体招聘广告‧澳洲第三季商业库存‧Previous value+0.3%
周二：澳洲第三季流动帐平衡‧Australia12Monthly central bank interest rate decision
Wednesday: Australia11monthAIG建筑业指数‧Australia Season 3GDP
Thursday: Australia10月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
Friday: Australia10Monthly housing financing‧Investment oriented housing financing

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500** – 0.7580 – 0.7740
support 0.7430 – 0.7290 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - test250MA

纽元兑美元方面，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着250Balance moving average0.6950，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈上升状态，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.72水平，下一级关键则料为0.74Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7150 – 0.7200 – 0.7400
support 0.7000 – 0.6950 – 0.6800 – 0.6676



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
12month6day(two): Canada10Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧Canada11monthIvey PMI
12month7day(three)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Resolution
12month8day(four): Canada11Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Canada10Monthly building permit rate‧新屋价格指数‧加拿大第三季产能利用率

Related news
Canada9Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)