Crossing the Sea 2016year11month30day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month30day

Focus this week:
11month30day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A10Monthly personal income‧支出月率
U.S.A10monthPCEprice index
U.S.A11Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A10Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

12month1day(Thursday)
U.S.A11monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A10Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A11monthISMManufacturing Index

12month2day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A11Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A11monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Italy10Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast11.6%‧Previous value11.7%
17：00 eurozone11monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast53.7‧Previous value53.7
17：30 britain11monthMarkit/CIPSManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast54.5‧Previous value54.3
18：00 意大利第三季国内生产总值(GDP)Quarterly rate final value‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.3%
18：00 意大利第三季国内生产总值(GDP)Annual rate final value‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+0.9%
18：00 eurozone10Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast10.0%‧Previous value10.0%
20：30 U.S.A11monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs‧Previous value30,740individual
21：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(11month26Day and Week)‧forecast25.3ten thousand people‧Previous value25.1ten thousand people
21：30 Four week average in the United States(11month26Day and Week)‧Previous value25.1ten thousand people
21：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(11month19Day and Week)‧forecast204.0ten thousand people‧Previous value204.3ten thousand people
22：30 Canada11monthRBCSeasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value51.1
22：45 U.S.A11monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.9
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly construction expenditure rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value-0.4%
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Manufacturing Index‧forecast52.2‧Previous value51.9
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧forecast54.0‧Previous value54.5
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧forecast52.3‧Previous value52.9
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value52.1

12month2day (Friday)
02：30 U.S.A11月汽车销量年率‧forecast1,77010000 vehicles‧Previous value1,80210000 vehicles



11month29day
LondongoldMorning order price:1187.30
London gold afternoon fixing price:1186.55



Today's Introduction

美元周二稍事喘息，因全球债市近期动荡后持稳，股市走势不一，意大利本周就宪法改革公投前欧洲政治风险重现。美元指数上周四一度触及近14Annual high point102.050，随后因投资者获利回吐以及油市出现的紧张情绪拉动该指数回落。自特朗普11month8日赢得美国总统大选以来，美元与美国公债收益率齐涨。对特朗普政府将推出刺激政策并提升通胀的预期打压公债价格。这种预期助推美国10年期公债收益率上周升至16Month high2.417%，并促使两年期美国公债收益率升至六年半高点。油价下滑，因怀疑石油输出国组织(OPEC)周三会议能否达成持久协议。工业金属最近大涨后，遭遇获利了结。12month4日意大利将进行修宪公投，可能决定总理伦齐的政治前途。在此之前，对意大利银行体系的担忧加剧。另外，投资人关注周二晚公布的美国第三季国内生产总值(GDP)数据和消费者信心及消费数据，作为交投指引。美国11月就业报告将于周五发布。



XAU London Gold - 金价超卖反弹，料受制千二关口

金价本月走势普遍承压 ，主要受对美国联邦储备理事会(FED)Will be on12月升息的预期拖累。金价在11month9日曾创下1337.40美元高点，但自那以来已累计下跌150美元，受美元上涨拖累。由于投资者认为美国当选总统特朗普的政策将导致通胀上升，美国公债收益率因而飙升，从而带动美元上涨。美国联邦储备理事会(FED)理事鲍威尔周二称，美国升息的理由自11月初以来已“明显”增强，当时特朗普还未当选美国总统。这成为美国货币政策很快将收紧的最新信号。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已在超卖区域徘徊两周时间，或见短期有反扑倾向，向上阻力料为1196and1217美元，较大阻力预计在1234美元，为近期160美元跌幅的38.2%反弹水平。在中期走势而言，若仍是受制于1200美元关口，则金价仍会继续探低趋势。支持预估在1172USD, for2015year12月低位至2016year7月高位累计涨幅的61.8%回吐比率，上周五金价低位正是碰及此区后出现大幅反弹，较大支撑见预料于1161USD.

London Gold11month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1187 – 1196
Resistance level:1203 – 1217 – 1239
Support bit:1180 – 1173 – 1161

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton
11month18Day - 915.29ton
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton
11month25Day - 885.04ton
11month28Day - 885.04ton
11month29Day - 885.04ton


12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year11month2day)

Global:33092.4ton(+114.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton(-0.3ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1838.5ton(+5.0ton)
Russia(7)：1542.7ton(+16.6ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价缓步探低

伦敦白银方面，银价过去两周亦是步步探低，暂见在16美元关口上方持稳，上周三及周五的低位均触及16.14美元。技术走势而言，较近阻力预估在17.00and17.30，关键则会是200Balance moving average17.64美元，在十月份为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考。相对强弱指标及随机指数在上周末段已自超卖区域出现回升迹象，有可能在本周初银价会先作持稳，下方支持预估在16.20and15.80，较大支持预料为15.00The US dollar barrier.

London Silver11month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.20 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.30 – 18.00
Support bit:15.80 – 14.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton
11month18Day - 11891.89ton
11month21Day - 11891.89ton
11month22Day - 10796.00ton
11month23Day - 10796.00ton
11month24Day - 10796.00ton
11month25Day - 10766.50ton
11month28Day - 10766.50ton
11month29Day - 10766.50ton



EUR euro - 处于盘底阶段

European Central Bank(ECB) 总裁德拉吉周三对西班牙报纸El Pais称，欧元区通胀率应该在2018-2019年回升至欧洲央行接近但略低于2%的目标水平。欧洲央行过去三年多一直没有达到通胀目标。该央行将在12month8日公布对2019年的初估，届时将更新之前的预估。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已在严重超卖区域多日徘徊，或见欧元兑美元短线下跌动力开始放缓。而只要1.05这个半百关口可守稳，则可望重展反弹势头。预估较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。反之，若1.05失守，下一级支持去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: France11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France10monthPPIMonthly rate‧Germany11Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy11monthCPIinitial value‧HIPinitial value‧eurozone11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPinitial value‧Italy10monthPPI
Thursday: Italy11monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany11monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Italy10Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第三季GDPFinal value‧eurozone10Monthly unemployment rate
Friday: Eurozone10monthPPI

Related news
Germany10Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.3%, down from the same period last year0.1%
Germany10月零售销售按月劲升2.4%，创逾五年来最大增幅
Germany10Menstrual season adjustmentILOIncrease in employed population13,000
Germany10月实质零售销售较前月增加2.4%, decreased compared to the same period last year1.0%

欧洲央行总裁德拉吉称，增长停滞是欧洲经济的最大风险

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0500 – 1.0456 – 1.0380



JPY yen - 美元续受追捧，日圆延续弱势

美元兑日圆扳回稍早跌幅，周三小幅上涨，因美债收益率恢复上升。不过美元涨势有限，市场人士等待石油输出国组织(OPEC)今日稍晚的会议，此次会议结果可能搅动金融市场，并打压美元。隔夜市场在美国强劲GDP修正数据提振下高见113.340，但由于美债收益率脱离16个月高位，美元未能保持涨势。美债收益率是近期美元走势的关键影响因素。美元在11月兑日圆大涨7%，兑欧元上涨3%。特朗普在本月早些时候的美国大选中获胜，引发了财政支出将增加、通胀率将上升以及美联储会更快速地收紧货币政策的预期，这推动美国公债收益率上升，从而令美元受到提振。周二公布的数据显示，美国第三季国内生产总值(GDP)上修，11月消费者信心较预期强劲。

技术图表所见，预料美元兑日圆上方阻力先参考100Monthly average line114.90水平，下一级看至25Monthly average line115.30and116。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，较近支撑见于110.80Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan10Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
周四：日本第三季商业资本支出年率‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

Related news
Japan10Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year0.1%
Japan10The monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio has increased1,40
Japan10The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is3.0%
Japan10The monthly talent seeking job search ratio is1991year8The highest since the beginning of the month
Japan10月所有家庭支出较上年同期下降0.4%
Japan10Monthly household expenses have decreased compared to the previous month1.0%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.90 – 115.30 – 116.00
support 110.80 – 110.00



GBP pound - 技术超买

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑经历在本月上旬的反弹走势后，过去一周波动收窄，大致处于1.23to1.25的区间内争持。自上周一跌破1.25水平后，则连日向上亦受制此区域，故1.25仍是较近阻力参考，而50Balance moving average1.2530则为下一级阻力，倘若可冲破此区，进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向再陷弱势，向下瞩目于上升趋向线1.2320，较大支持位预估在1.2180and1.2080Horizontal.

Focus:
11month29day(two): UK10Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
11month30day(three): UK11monthGfKConsumer confidence index
12month1day(four): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
12month2day(five): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI

Related news
Bank of EnglandMPC委员弗利葛称，维持利率不变对英国经济最有利

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500/30* – 1.2700 – 1.2800
support 1.2320 – 1.2180 – 1.2080



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Focus:
11month29day(two)：瑞士第三季非农就业岗位
11month30day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland10Monthly consumption indicators‧Switzerland11monthKOF领先成长指标‧104.7
12month1day(four)Switzerland10Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland11Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
12month2day(five)Switzerland Season 3GDP

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - 初步呈回弹

Australia10月建筑许可大幅下降，其迫切需要的住房建筑荣景化为泡影，这可能削弱决策者对明年经济稳健增长的希望。澳洲统计局周三公布的数据意外显示，10月新房建筑许可较前月大降12.6%，远不及预期的增长1.5And create2012年中以来最大降幅。该数据连降第三个月，7月以来累计降幅达到22.5%。曾经相当火红的公寓建筑构成最大的拖累，单单10月公寓建筑许可即锐减25%，较上年同期更大减逾42%。这将为澳洲央行敲响响钟，该行一直指望房屋建筑持续表现强势，好抵销矿业衰退所带来的拖累。外界已然预计下周将公布的数据将显示第三季经济几近停滞，甚或陷入萎缩，这会是25年来罕见的第四个季度负成长。虽然澳洲第二季GDP年增率达3.3%，但第三季年增率可能放缓至更接近2.0%. Continuing5Month and8月降息后，澳洲官方隔夜拆款利率降至了史上最低水平1.5%，之后澳洲央行一直在淡化进一步放松政策的必要性。

铁矿石价格大幅修正以及澳洲建筑许可数据意外疲弱后，澳元失去动能，澳元兑美元从稍早的0.7489fall to0.7470水平。之前澳洲公布10月建筑许可下降12.6%，对该国最强劲的行业之一是一大打击。澳元随之下跌。中国铁矿石期货重挫7%，为连续第二日大跌，亦打压澳元。11月迄今澳元下跌1.8%，主要由于美国大选后美元走强。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦开始于超卖区域呈回升的迹象，可望澳元短线有喘稳的倾向。较近阻力预料为250Balance moving average0.7435，关键则指向0.75and0.76水平。支持位则会回看0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145，进一步则瞩目于0.70Gateway.

Focus:
11month30day(three): Australia11monthHIA新屋销售月率‧Australia10Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit‧民间部门信贷‧Housing credit
12month1day(four): Australia11monthAIGManufacturing Index‧澳洲第三季资本支出季率‧建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出
12month2day(five): Australia10Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7435 – 0.7500 – 0.7600
support 0.7290 – 0.7145 – 0.7000*



NZD New Zealand dollars - test0.70Gateway

纽元周三触及三周高位，此前纽西兰央行警告楼市泡沫风险，加强了市场关于该央行降息行动可能已经结束的预期。纽元上涨主要是因为，之前纽西兰央行称可能对抵押贷款实施限制，以抑制房价飙涨，这意味着其降息周期结束。

纽元兑美元方面，由上周初至今，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着250Balance moving average0.6950，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈上升状态，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.72水平，下一级关键则料为0.74Horizontal.

Focus:
11month30day(three): New Zealand10Monthly Building Permit‧New Zealand11monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZ高业活动指数
12month1day(four)：纽西兰第三季贸易条件季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7180 – 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
11month30day(three): Canada9monthGDPMonthly rate‧加拿大第三季GDP‧Canada10monthPPI
12month1day(four): Canada11monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
12month2day(five): Canada11Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate

Related news
Canada9Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)