Crossing the Sea 2016year11month29day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month29day

Focus this week:
11month29day(Tuesday)
美国第三季消费者支出修订
Season 3 in the United StatesGDPRevised month on month annual rate
U.S.A9monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数月率
U.S.A9Monthly housing price index
U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A11月达拉斯联储服务业营收指数

11month30day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A10Monthly personal income‧支出月率
U.S.A10monthPCEprice index
U.S.A11Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A10Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

12month1day(Thursday)
U.S.A11monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A10Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A11monthISMManufacturing Index

12month2day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A11Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A11monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index



Important economic data released today:
15：00 Germany10Monthly import price rate‧forecast+0.7%‧Previous value+0.1%
15：00 Germany10Monthly import price annual rate‧forecast-0.8%‧Previous value-1.8%
15：45 法国第三季国内生产总值(GDP)Quarterly rate final value‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.2%
15：45 France10Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value-0.2%
16：15 瑞士第三季非农就业岗位‧Previous value490.3Ten thousand
17：30 britain10Monthly Consumer Credit‧Forecast increase15.00Billion‧Previous value increase14.05Billion
17：30 britain10Monthly mortgage loan disbursement amount‧Forecast increase32.00Billion‧Previous value increase32.48Billion
17：30 britain10Number of monthly mortgage loan approvals‧forecast65,000piece‧Previous value62,932piece
17：30 britain10monthM4Monthly rate of goods supply‧Previous value-0.4%
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧forecast0.57‧Previous value0.55
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Economic Prosperity Index‧forecast107.0‧Previous value106.3
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Industrial Prosperity Index‧Predict negative0.5‧Negative front value0.6
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧forecast12.5‧Previous value12.0
18：00 eurozone11Final value of monthly consumer confidence index‧forecast-6.1‧Negative front value8.0
18：00 eurozone11Monthly Consumer Inflation Expectation Index‧Previous value4.3
18：00 eurozone11月生产者通胀预期指数‧Previous value3.2
21：00 Germany11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.2%
21：00 Germany11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.8%‧Previous value+0.8%
21：00 Germany11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.2%
21：00 Germany11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.8%‧Previous value+0.7%
21：30 加拿大第三季流动帐平衡‧forecast168.0A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value198.6A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30 Initial commercial profit for the third quarter in the United States‧Previous value-1.9%
21：30 US Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Revised month on month annual rate‧forecast+3.0%‧Previous value+2.9%
21：30 美国第三季最终销售修订‧forecast+2.5%‧Previous value+2.3%
21：30 美国第三季消费者支出修订‧Previous value+2.1%
21：30 US Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)平减指数修订‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+1.5%
21：30 Third quarter personal consumption expenditure in the United States(PCE)物价指数修订‧forecast+2.0%‧Previous value+1.4%
21：30 Third quarter core personal consumption expenditure in the United States(PCE)物价指数修订‧forecast+1.8%‧Previous value+1.7%
22：00 U.S.A9monthCaseShiller 20Monthly rate of seasonally adjusted housing price index in cities‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.2%
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly rate of unseasonally adjusted housing price index‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.4%
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly housing price index annual rate‧forecast+5.2%‧Previous value+5.1%
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧forecast101.2‧Previous value98.6
23：30 U.S.A11月达拉斯联储服务业营收指数‧Previous value9.9



11month28day
LondongoldMorning order price:1189.10
London gold afternoon fixing price:1187.00



Today's Introduction

美元周二稍事喘息，因全球债市近期动荡后持稳，股市走势不一，意大利本周就宪法改革公投前欧洲政治风险重现。美元指数上周四一度触及近14Annual high point102.050，随后因投资者获利回吐以及油市出现的紧张情绪拉动该指数回落。自特朗普11month8日赢得美国总统大选以来，美元与美国公债收益率齐涨。对特朗普政府将推出刺激政策并提升通胀的预期打压公债价格。这种预期助推美国10年期公债收益率上周升至16Month high2.417%，并促使两年期美国公债收益率升至六年半高点。油价下滑，因怀疑石油输出国组织(OPEC)周三会议能否达成持久协议。工业金属最近大涨后，遭遇获利了结。12month4日意大利将进行修宪公投，可能决定总理伦齐的政治前途。在此之前，对意大利银行体系的担忧加剧。另外，投资人关注周二晚公布的美国第三季国内生产总值(GDP)数据和消费者信心及消费数据，作为交投指引。美国11月就业报告将于周五发布。



XAU London Gold - 金价超卖反弹，料受制千二关口

伦敦黄金周二下滑，因美元持稳 ，且在主要产油国本周开会前市场谨慎以对。美元周二暂获喘息，因全球债市从近期的跌势中恢复稳定；同时股市持平，在意大利本周末举行修宪公投前，欧洲的政治风险重现。金价基调稍见转好，不过在1200美元关口前暂遇阻力；其中给金价带来压力的是，高度预期中的美国联邦储备理事会(FED)12月升息，此次会议定于12month13-14Convene on the day.

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已在超卖区域徘徊两周时间，或见短期有反扑倾向，向上阻力料为1201and1221美元，较大阻力预计在1234美元，为近期160美元跌幅的38.2%反弹水平。在中期走势而言，若仍是受制于1200美元关口，则金价仍会继续探低趋势。支持预估在1172USD, for2015year12月低位至2016year7月高位累计涨幅的61.8%回吐比率，上周五金价低位正是碰及此区后出现大幅反弹，较大支撑见预料于1161USD.

London Gold11month29day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1185 – 1201
Resistance level:1207 – 1221
Support bit:1176 – 1161

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton
11month18Day - 915.29ton
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton
11month25Day - 885.04ton
11month28Day - 885.04ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价缓步探低

伦敦白银方面，银价过去两周亦是步步探低，暂见在16美元关口上方持稳，上周三及周五的低位均触及16.14美元。技术走势而言，较近阻力预估在17.10，关键则会是200Balance moving average17.64美元，在十月份为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考。相对强弱指标及随机指数在上周末段已自超卖区域出现回升迹象，有可能在本周初银价会先作持稳，下方支持预估在16.20and15.70，较大支持预料为15.00The US dollar barrier.

London Silver11month29day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.20 – 17.10
Resistance level:17.60 – 18.00
Support bit:15.70 – 15.40

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton
11month18Day - 11891.89ton
11month21Day - 11891.89ton
11month22Day - 10796.00ton
11month23Day - 10796.00ton
11month24Day - 10796.00ton
11month25Day - 10766.50ton
11month28Day - 10766.50ton



EUR euro - 处于盘底阶段

欧洲央行总裁德拉吉 周一称，复苏停滞将是欧元区经济的最大风险，在下周即将做出重要政策决定之际，强调该行的重点是支持增长。德拉吉在欧洲议会暗示，欧洲央行仍坚定地专注于刺激增长。“目前最大的风险来自经济成长受损，”德拉吉说。“最大的风险在于，经济复苏或许不会增强并陷入停滞。”德拉吉表示，欧洲央行委员们在12month8日会议上将会设法保持“非常可观的”经济刺激，并评估其购债计划的其它选项。

尽管美元回落，但政治风险仍让欧元受抑。意大利周日就宪法改革进行的公投。意大利总理伦齐的宪法改革方案要让权力更加集中，在12month4日的公投中，市场普遍预期改革将遭到意大利选民的否决；伦齐之前表示，面对这样的结果，他将辞职以对。

欧元兑美元上周四跌见至1.0515，创下的去年12月以来最低位。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已在严重超卖区域多日徘徊，或见欧元兑美元短线下跌动力开始放缓。而只要1.05这个半百关口可守稳，则可望重展反弹势头。预估较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。反之，若1.05失守，下一级支持去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380Horizontal.        

Focus:
周二：法国第三季GDPQuarterly rate final value‧France10Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧Germany11monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
Wednesday: France11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France10monthPPIMonthly rate‧Germany11Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy11monthCPIinitial value‧HIPinitial value‧eurozone11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPinitial value‧Italy10monthPPI
Thursday: Italy11monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany11monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Italy10Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第三季GDPFinal value‧eurozone10Monthly unemployment rate
Friday: Eurozone10monthPPI

Related news
Germany10Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.3%, down from the same period last year0.1%

欧洲央行总裁德拉吉称，增长停滞是欧洲经济的最大风险

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0500 – 1.0456 – 1.0380



JPY yen - 美元续受追捧，日圆延续弱势

Japan10月失业率持稳，求才求职比情况改善，且家庭支出下降速度放慢。这些迹象初步暗示，强劲的就业市场在为国内需求提供支撑。周二的数据显示，10月经季节调整后失业率为3.0%，持平于前月，并符合分析师的预估中值。求才求职比升至1991year8The highest since the beginning of the month.10月家庭支出较上年同期回落0.4%The estimated median is a decrease0.6%，消费者在食品和交通方面的花费减少。数据表明，日本国内需求可能企稳，这或会缓解决策者的疑虑，降低采取刺激举措以重振经济和推升通胀的必要性。日本失业率持续下降，部分原因在于劳动人口萎缩，建筑、医疗保健和酒店业缺少人力。周二公布另一项数据显示，10Monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio9Of1.38Ascend to1.40This is1991year8月以来最高。市场预估中值为升至1.39。其它数据显示，10月消费者在国内旅游和家具方面的支出增加。这是整体支出正在触底的暂时性迹象。

技术图表所见，预料美元兑日圆上方阻力先参考100Monthly average line114.90水平，下一级看至25Monthly average line115.30and116。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，较近支撑见于110.80Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan10Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
周四：日本第三季商业资本支出年率‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

Related news
Japan10Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year0.1%
Japan10The monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio has increased1,40
Japan10The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is3.0%
Japan10The monthly talent seeking job search ratio is1991year8The highest since the beginning of the month
Japan10月所有家庭支出较上年同期下降0.4%
Japan10Monthly household expenses have decreased compared to the previous month1.0%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.90 – 115.30 – 116.00
support 110.80 – 110.00



GBP pound - 技术超买

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England(MPC)委员弗利葛周一称，英国准备脱欧之际，英国经济前景极为不确定，这意味着英国央行应维持利率不变。弗利葛暗示英国央行不应急于调整利率。

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑经历在本月上旬的反弹走势后，过去一周波动收窄，大致处于1.23to1.25的区间内争持。自上周一跌破1.25水平后，则连日向上亦受制此区域，故1.25仍是较近阻力参考，而50Balance moving average1.2530则为下一级阻力，倘若可冲破此区，进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向再陷弱势，向下瞩目于上升趋向线1.2320，较大支持位预估在1.2180and1.2080Horizontal.

Focus:
11month29day(two): UK10Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
11month30day(three): UK11monthGfKConsumer confidence index
12month1day(four): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
12month2day(five): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI

Related news
Bank of EnglandMPC委员弗利葛称，维持利率不变对英国经济最有利

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500/30* – 1.2700 – 1.2800
support 1.2320 – 1.2180 – 1.2080



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Focus:
11month29day(two)：瑞士第三季非农就业岗位
11month30day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland10Monthly consumption indicators‧Switzerland11monthKOF领先成长指标‧104.7
12month1day(four)Switzerland10Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland11Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
12month2day(five)Switzerland Season 3GDP

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - 初步呈回弹

澳元周二涨势暂歇，此前大宗商品价格大涨推动澳元升至两周高位。自特朗普11month8日赢得美国总统大选以来，澳元已累计下跌3.5%，因美元与美债收益率一道跳升。澳元本月迄今跌1.5%，料将录得连续第二个月下跌。但过去一周该货币对守住阵地，因铁矿石和煤炭价格大幅反弹，这是澳洲两大出口产品。今日稍后，投资者将关注美国国内生产总值(GDP)数据、消费者信心以及消费数据以期从中寻找交投线索。还将关注周五的11月就业报告。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦开始于超卖区域呈回升的迹象，可望澳元短线有喘稳的倾向。较近阻力预料为250Balance moving average0.7435，关键则指向0.75and0.76水平。支持位则会回看0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145，进一步则瞩目于0.70Gateway.

Focus:
11month30day(three): Australia11monthHIA新屋销售月率‧Australia10Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit‧民间部门信贷‧Housing credit
12month1day(four): Australia11monthAIGManufacturing Index‧澳洲第三季资本支出季率‧建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出
12month2day(five): Australia10Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7435 – 0.7500 – 0.7600
support 0.7290 – 0.7145 – 0.7000*



NZD New Zealand dollars - test0.70Gateway

纽元兑美元方面，由上周初至今，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为0.68，较大支撑则会看至5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着250Balance moving average0.6950，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已呈上升状态，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.72水平，下一级关键则料为0.74Horizontal.

Focus:
11month30day(three): New Zealand10Monthly Building Permit‧New Zealand11monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZ高业活动指数
12month1day(four)：纽西兰第三季贸易条件季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7180 – 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

加拿大央行总裁波洛兹周一表示，近期国内经济出现一些零星的疲弱迹象，但只有严重影响到央行的通胀预期时，央行才会考虑采取进一步刺激政策。他表示，自特朗普当选美国总统以来，债券收益率在近期出现一些上升，这仍在央行对于全球利率逐步正常化的预期范围内。至于特朗普当选对加拿大的影响，波洛兹表示，央行在作出前景展望时，只会考虑已宣布的政策决定。特朗普在大选中承诺要重新协商北美自由贸易协议。加拿大央行2015年降息两次，因应油价下滑。油价下挫导致加拿大经济陷入短暂衰退。加拿大央行自2015year7月以来一直维持利率在0.5%不变，但波洛兹在10月政策会议后称决策者曾考虑再次降息，扰动市场。被问及是否要在经济非常疲弱时，加拿大央行采取考虑额外货币政策举措时，波洛兹称，政策框架由通胀前景决定。加拿大央行目前预计，2018年中期通胀将持续达到2%的目标水准。外界普遍预期，加拿大央行下周会议将维持利率不变。不过一些分析师称，市场对于加拿大央行进一步降息的前景过于掉以轻心。

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
11month29day(two)：加拿大第三流动帐平衡
11month30day(three): Canada9monthGDPMonthly rate‧加拿大第三季GDP‧Canada10monthPPI
12month1day(four): Canada11monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
12month2day(five): Canada11Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate

Related news
Canada9Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)