Crossing the Sea 2016year11month25day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month25day

Focus this week:

11month25day(Friday)
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIinitial value

11month28day(Monday)
U.S.A11Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month

11month29day(Tuesday)
美国第三季消费者支出修订
Season 3 in the United StatesGDPRevised month on month annual rate
U.S.A9monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数月率
U.S.A9Monthly housing price index
U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A11月达拉斯联储服务业营收指数

11month30day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A10Monthly personal income‧支出月率
U.S.A10monthPCEprice index
U.S.A11Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A10Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

12month1day(Thursday)
U.S.A11monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A10Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A11monthISMManufacturing Index

12month2day(Friday)
U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A11Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A11monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Italy9月经季节调整工业订单月率‧Previous value+10.2%
17：00 Italy9月未经季节调整工业订单年率‧Previous value+15.9%
17：00 Italy9月经季节调整工业销售月率‧Previous value+4.1%
17：00 Italy9月未经季节调整工业销售年率‧Previous value+6.8%
17：30 UK Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Seasonal rate revision‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.5%
17：30 UK Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Annual rate revision‧forecast+2.3%‧Previous value+2.3%
17：30 英国第三季商业投资季率初值‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+1.0%
17：30 英国第三季商业投资年率初值‧forecast-2.1%‧Previous value-0.8%
18：00 Italy9月经季节调整零售销售月率‧Previous value-0.1%
18：00 Italy9月未经季节调整零售销售年率‧Previous value-0.2%
19：00 britain10Monthly retail sales difference‧Predict positive12‧Front value positive21
21：30 U.S.A10Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance‧Previous value560.8A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30 U.S.A10Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory‧Previous value+0.1%
22：45 U.S.A11monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value54.9
22：45 U.S.A11monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast54.8‧Previous value54.8



News of the Week

U.S.A10Monthly housing sales increase2%，年率升至逾九年半高位的56010000 households
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank11The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is positive4
U.S.A10Monthly durable goods orders increased compared to the previous month4.8%
U.S.A11monthMarkitUS manufacturing industryPMIThe initial value is53.9, creating2015year10The highest since the beginning of the month
美国一周初请失业金人数升至25.1ten thousand people
U.S.A11月密西根大学美国消费者信心指数终值升至93.8
FHFA: USA9Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.6%, up from the same period last year6.1%
U.S.A10Revised monthly building permit annual rate to12610000 households



11month24day
LondongoldMorning order price:1187.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1186.10



Today's Introduction

美元升势势如破竹

美元指数在录得20个月最大两周升幅后，本周初段稍事喘息。但随着强劲经济数据公布，以及美联储会议记录也直指即将加息，美元再度飙升，兑日圆升至八个月高点，兑一篮子货币触及近14年高位。美国升息前景以及特朗普可能实施贸易保护主义的阴影，令新兴市场货币受到重创。人民币兑美元屡次刷新八年半低点，直逼7.0大关。欧洲则面临一系列政治风险，若意大利12month4日的公投否决修宪，可能会导致总理伦齐下台并令欧元遭受重创。下周将是数据密集的一周，重要数据包括美国11月非农就业报告、全球主要经济体通胀率和国内生产总值(GDP)数据，以及制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)。鉴于美联储12月升息似乎是板上钉钉，政治层面的消息将盖过数据主导市场。

自特朗普赢得美国大选以来，美元一路上攻，跟随美债收益率急升的走势。市场人士大量押注特朗普政府将增加财政支出，从而推升通胀与利率。周三公布的强劲数据显示，美国经济处于稳步成长的正轨，巩固了对美联储在12月和明年加息的预期。美联储公布的11月货币政策会议记录也直指即将加息。根据芝加哥商业交易所(CME)ofFedWatch，市场现预计美联储12月升息机率接近100%。部分投资人预期，若经济动能持续，2017年还可能进一步升息。



XAU London Gold - 金价失守千二，形势险峻

According to data released on Thursday,China10月通过香港凈进口的黄金数量增长15.8% ，至三个月来最高。

金价周五亚洲时段下跌1%至九个半月低点，市场预期美国联邦储备理事会(FED)即将升息，并且美元兑日圆延续升势。金价本月以来下跌逾8%, and11month9日美国选后触及的高点相比，已下跌逾160美元，受创于强势美元及美债收益率涨势。

技术图表所见，支持预估在1172USD, for2015year12月低位至2016year7月高位累计涨幅的61.8%回吐比率；较大支撑见于1164and1157美元。向上阻力料为1195and1204美元，较大阻力预计为1227USD.

London Gold11month25day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1164 – 1186
Resistance level:1195 – 1204
Support bit:1157 – 1140

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton
11month3Day - 949.69ton
11month4Day - 949.69ton
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton
11month18Day - 915.29ton
11month21Day - 908.76ton
11month22Day - 904.91ton
11month23Day - 891.57ton
11month24Day - 891.57ton


12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价缓步探低

伦敦白银方面，较近阻力预估在16.80and17.20，关键则会是200Balance moving average17.63美元，在此前为重要支撑下现换成阻力参考。下方支持预估在16.00and15.60，较大支持预料为15.00The US dollar barrier.

London Silver11month25day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.00 – 16.50
Resistance level:16.80 – 17.20 – 18.00
Support bit:15.80 – 15.60 – 15.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton
11month18Day - 11891.89ton
11month21Day - 11891.89ton
11month22Day - 10796.00ton
11month23Day - 10796.00ton
11month24Day - 10796.00ton



EUR euro - 处于盘底阶段

欧洲央行副总裁冈斯坦西欧周四称，欧洲央行认为欧元区金融稳定面临的风险上升，关注意大利下月宪法改革公投的影响。在这份异常悲观的金融稳定性检视报告中，欧洲央行也警告大西洋两岸的政治变化可能引起政府借贷成本飙升，令人担心债务负担较重的国家。美国在特朗普上台后，有可能走向保护主义。冈斯坦西欧稍晚在专访中对路透表示，他不认为金融市场正在消化欧元区解体的风险，即便近期意大利债券收益率上涨。

欧洲议会议长舒尔茨将重返德国政界，这可能对德国总理默克尔构成挑战，并引发了欧盟机构将大洗牌的猜测。舒尔茨在记者会上表示，他不会寻求欧洲议会议长的连任，而是明年竞选德国联邦议会的席位。对于他可能接替即将离任的德国外交部长史坦迈尔(Frank-Walter Steinmeier)，或成为社会民主党候选人参选总理挑战默克尔的说法，他未予置评。默克尔 Next year9月的议会选举中争取第四个任期。对于与舒尔茨领导的中左翼在布鲁塞尔结成有效大联盟的保守派来说，如果不能在明年1月的欧洲议会选举中拿下议长一职，那就意味着欧盟政治体系中的三大主要机构都将由中右翼人士统帅，这种可能性已经引发有关欧盟执委会和欧洲理事会将有所改变的说法。

未来数月，欧元将面临一系列政治风险，包括一周之后的意大利修宪公投，以及明年法国和德国的大选，这些因素都可能驱动欧元走低。如果民调预示准确，意大利公投否决修宪，可能会导致总理伦齐下台并令欧元遭受重创。在法国保守派总统竞选提名人初选中，选民抛弃了前总统萨科齐，前总理菲永意外处于领先。本周日的第二轮投票中，菲永将与另一位前总理朱佩对决。此外，德国总理默克尔已宣布，她将在明年大选中寻求第四个总理任期。这被视为有利于欧元。

欧元兑美元周四跌见至1.0515，创下的去年12月以来最低位。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已在严重超卖区域多日徘徊，或见欧元兑美元短线下跌动力开始放缓。而只要1.05这个半百关口可守稳，则可望重展反弹势头。预估较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。反之，若1.05失守，下一级支持去年3Monthly low1.0456，进一步则会看至1.0380Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: France11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧Retail sales
11month28day(one): Italy11月制造业商业信心指数‧eurozone10monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧M3对家庭贷款‧M3对非金融行业贷款‧eurozone11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数
11month29day(two)：法国第三季GDPQuarterly rate final value‧France10Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧Germany11monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
11month30day(three): France11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France10monthPPIMonthly rate‧Germany11Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy11monthCPIinitial value‧HIPinitial value‧eurozone11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPinitial value‧Italy10monthPPI
12month1day(four): Italy11monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany11monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Italy10Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第三季GDPFinal value‧eurozone10Monthly unemployment rate
12month2day(five): Eurozone10monthPPI

Related news
欧洲央行高官誓言持续支持欧元区经济
央行月报：德国第四季经济成长将明显加快
ECB管委：12月会议未必会就欧洲央行资产购买计划做出决定
欧洲央行认为欧元区金融稳定风险上升，关注意大利公投
欧洲议会议长舒尔茨不寻求连任，将重返德国政界

eurozone11月消费者信心指数初值升至负6.1
France11The monthly enterprise prosperity index is103，连续第三个企稳
Germany Season 3GDP确认为较前季成长0.2%Growth compared to the same period last year1.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0500 – 1.0456 – 1.0380



JPY yen - 弱势延展

Japan10Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)连续第八个月同比下滑，表明日本央行要在政策选项所剩无几的情况下，应对通缩和经济成长停滞，依然任重而道远。数据将令决策者面对进一步刺激经济的压力，鉴于日本央行实施了三年的大规模货币宽松举措未能令通胀加速升向2%的目标，财政支出或许是更受青睐的选择。  但由于能源价格下跌带来的下行压力缓解，而且最近日圆贬值料推高进口成本，一些分析师预计明年年初消费者物价将反弹。政府数据显示，10Monthly National Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)Decline compared to the same period last year0.4%，符合路透调查预估，9Monthly decline0.5%。该数据纳入了油品价格，但扣除波动较大的生鲜食品。数据显示，尽管汽油和电价下跌持续压低通胀，但构成该指数的近六成项目的价格呈现上涨。10月扣除食品和能源价格的核心核心通胀指数较上年同期上涨0.2%，9The month is flat.

美元兑日圆周五升至八个月高位，美债收益率在亚洲盘恢复升势，提振美元。美国周四因感恩节假期休市。美元兑日圆触及八个月高位113.90日圆。美国可能升息以及可能实施贸易保护主义的阴影，令新兴市场股市和货币受到重创。美国总统当选人特朗普拥护贸易保护主义。

技术图表所见，预料上方阻力先参考100Monthly average line114.90水平，下一级看至25Monthly average line115.30and116。支持位方面，110关口将反过来成为支撑依据，较近见于110.80。

Focus:
11month29day(two): Japan10All monthly household expenses‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧零售销售年率
11month30day(three): Japan10Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
12month1day(four)：日本第三季商业资本支出年率‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

Related news
Japan11Monthly Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Initial value drops to51.1
央行指数显示10月消费者物价较上年同期上涨0.3%
Japan10Monthly National CoreCPIDecline compared to the same period last year0.4%
whole country10Monthly deduction of food and energyCPIIncrease compared to the same period last year0.2%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.90 – 115.30 – 116.00
support 110.80 – 110.00



GBP pound - 技术超买

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑经历在本月上旬的反弹走势后，过去一周波动收窄，大致处于1.23to1.25的区间内争持。自上周一跌破1.25水平后，则连日向上亦受制此区域，故1.25仍是较近阻力参考，而50Balance moving average1.2530则为下一级阻力，倘若可冲破此区，进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向再陷弱势，向下瞩目于上升趋向线1.2320，较大支持位预估在1.2180and1.2080Horizontal.

Focus:
周五：英国第三季GDP修订‧企业投资初值‧britain10Monthly retail sales difference
11month29day(two): UK10Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
11month30day(three): UK11monthGfKConsumer confidence index
12month1day(four): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
12month2day(five): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI

Related news
britain10Monthly net borrowing from public sector(PSNB)by43.01Billion pounds, compared to the same period last year59.36Billion pounds
britain10The monthly public sector revenue and expenditure surplus is34.13£ 100 million, with a surplus in the same period last year20.78Billion pounds
britain10月扣除国有银行的公共部门凈债务(PSND)by1.6416万亿英镑创纪录高位，相当
toGDPof83.8%
British Industrial Alliance(CBI)11The difference in monthly total industrial orders is negative3, for6The highest in the past month

英国上调借款目标并调降经济成长展望，为退欧做准备

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500/30* – 1.2700 – 1.2800
support 1.2320 – 1.2180 – 1.2080



CHF Swiss franc - 弱势延展

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意1.0150and1.02，1month29Daily high1.0257将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于1.00水平，下一级关键25Balance moving average0.9915。

Related news
央行总裁乔丹称负利率政策获得公众广泛支持

Focus:
11month29day(two)：瑞士第三季非农就业岗位
11month30day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland10Monthly consumption indicators‧Switzerland11monthKOF领先成长指标‧104.7
12month1day(four)Switzerland10Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland11Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
12month2day(five)Switzerland Season 3GDP        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0150 – 1.0200 – 1.0257
support 1.0000 – 0.9915



AUD AUD - 初步呈回弹

澳元兑美元继续持稳回升，受到大宗商品隔夜表现再度强劲推动。铁矿石本周大涨。中国铁矿石期货周三曾跳涨逾7%。套利交易需求亦协助澳元。在套利交易中，投资人以低利息借入日圆，用以买进收益较高资产，例如澳元及纽元。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦开始于超卖区域呈回升的迹象，可望澳元短线有喘稳的倾向。较近阻力预料为250Balance moving average0.7435，关键则指向0.75and0.76水平。支持位则会回看0.7290，较大的延伸支撑将参考5month24Daily low0.7145，进一步则瞩目于0.70Gateway.

Related news
澳洲第三季经季节调整的建筑完工额较前季下降4.9%

Focus:
11month30day(three): Australia11monthHIA新屋销售月率‧Australia10Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit‧民间部门信贷‧Housing credit
12month1day(four): Australia11monthAIGManufacturing Index‧澳洲第三季资本支出季率‧建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出
12month2day(five): Australia10Monthly retail sales rate        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7435 – 0.7500 – 0.7600
support 0.7290 – 0.7145 – 0.7000*



NZD New Zealand dollars - test0.70Gateway

由周初至今，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为250Balance moving average0.6950，较大支撑则会看至0.68To the extent that5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着0.70关口，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域多时，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.7220The next key material is0.74Horizontal.

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Focus:
11month30day(three): New Zealand10Monthly Building Permit‧New Zealand11monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZ高业活动指数
12month1day(four)：纽西兰第三季贸易条件季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7180 – 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

市场对于加拿大央行进一步降息的前景过于掉以轻心。北美自由贸易协议(NAFTA)的前景不明，恐将导致加拿大企业支出升温的预期落空。加拿大央行在10月预期，继最近几年令人失望的表现后，2017年企业投资将转为正增长。不过特朗普意外赢得美国总统选举，令NAFTA的前景出现不确定性；分析师称这将会挫伤投资积极性。围绕NAFTA的不确定性上升，尚未带动市场对加拿大央行降息的预期升温。尽管该央行在10月会议上考虑过降息，但还是决定维持政策利率在0.50%不变。上次降息还是在2015year7月。据隔夜指数掉期数据显示，市场认为直到2017年中利率都将保持不变。在11month8日美国大选前，降息机率还为30%。因美国联邦储备理事会(FED)加息机率增加有助于推高加拿大利率，自然会对加国利率预期产生影响。

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
11month29day(two)：加拿大第三流动帐平衡
11month30day(three): Canada9monthGDPMonthly rate‧加拿大第三季GDP‧Canada10monthPPI
12month1day(four): Canada11monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
12month2day(five): Canada11Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate

Related news
Canada9Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)