Crossing the Sea 2016year11month18day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month18day

Focus this week:
11month18day (Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly leading indicators

11month21day(Monday)
U.S.A10Monthly National Activity Index

11month22day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A11Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

11month23day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A10Monthly durable goods orders
U.S.A9Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)房屋价格
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A11月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值
U.S.A10Monthly sales of new houses

11month24day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

11month25day(Friday)
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A10Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A11monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value



Important economic data released today:
17：00 eurozone9Monthly unadjusted current account‧Previous value236Yiyi surplus
17：00 eurozone9Seasonal adjustment of current accounts during menstruation‧Previous value297Yiyi surplus
17：00 eurozone9Monthly direct investment/Net liquidity of securities investment‧Front value inflow798Billion
21：30 Canada10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
21：30 Canada10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+1.3%
21：30 Canada10Monthly Central Bank Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.2%
21：30 Canada10Monthly Central Bank Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.8%‧Previous value+1.8%
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly leading indicator monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.2%

11month19day (Saturday)
00：00 U.S.A11月堪萨斯联储制造业指数‧Front value positive18
00：00 U.S.A11月堪萨斯联储综合指数‧Front value positive6



News of the Week

里奇蒙联邦储备银行总裁称，财政刺激政策将使美联储更有理由升息
美国波士顿联储总裁称，只有重大负面消息才会使联储放弃12Monthly interest rate increase
圣路易斯联储总裁：12月不升息的唯一理由是发生重大冲击
费城联储总裁哈克称支持加息，美联储须保持独立性

U.S.A10月出口物价较前月上升0.2%，进口物价较前月上升0.5%
U.S.A10Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.8%
U.S.A9Monthly enterprise inventory increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A11monthNAHBThe housing market index is63
U.S.A10Monthly industrial production remains stable compared to the previous month
U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing output increased compared to the previous month0.2%
U.S.A10The monthly capacity utilization rate is75.3%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIIncrease compared to the same period last year1.2%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIIncrease compared to the same period last year1.6%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIDecreased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIDecreased compared to the previous month0.2%
U.S.A10Monthly final demandPPICompared to the previous month, it remained stable and increased compared to the same period last year0.8%
U.S.A9月整体资本净流出1529USD100mn



11month17day
LondongoldMorning order price:1232.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1226.75



Today's Introduction

美元攀升至13年半高位。周四美联储主席耶伦在特朗普当选下一届总统后首次公开讲话，表示美联储可能“相对很快”升息，从而明确发出了12月政策会议上可能加息的信号。此外，本周公布的美国零售销售、CPI和房屋开工等经济数据均较为强劲，也强化了市场对美联储12month13-14日政策会议将升息的预期。美元指数本周触及101.37of2003year4月来最高水平。相比之下，日圆、欧元较为弱势，人民币也承受巨大压力。截至周五人民币中间价已经11连跌，创下近八年半新低，人民币兑美元在岸即期价跌破6.89，离岸更是跌破6.91Gateway.

展望下周，全球主要央行并没有利率会议。数据方面，欧元区、美国和德国都将公布11monthPMI数据，英国、德国还将公布第三季GDP修正值。另外美国10月耐久财和成屋销售数据也值得关注。



XAU London Gold - SPDR黄金上市交易基金持金量为6Lowest since month

The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)-- SPDR Gold Trust周四黄金持仓量较周三减少0.61%，同期全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust的白银持仓持平。

美元本周继续攀升并触及13年半高位，因美国12月升息的确定性增加，且有迹象显示美国经济稳固增长，美债收益率扬升。美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席耶伦周四告诉国会联合经济委员会称，特朗普当选美国总统没有改变美联储“相对很快”升息的计划。耶伦表示，当新政府实施其数以千亿美元计的减税和扩大财政支出计划时，美联储如有必要将对其预估前景做出调整。她还建议新政府要牢记美国正接近全面就业，且通胀可能在上升。她指出，目前来说所获得的经济数据能为“相对很快”升息提供理据，在没有重大改变的情况下，此后将逐渐升息，目前来看美联储政策落后于经济形势和失去对通胀控制的风险很小。美国经济数据完全迎合了耶伦对升息的观点。本周数据显示，美国10月新屋开工达到九年高位，当月消费者物价同比涨幅创下六个月来最大，一周初请失业金人数也跌至43年低位。分析师称，这些因素都强化了联储于12month13-14日政策会议上进行今年首次升息的预期 。强劲的数据推高美债收益率，支撑美元。自美国大选落幕后，美债收益率一直处于上行趋势，外界猜测特朗普政府将采取通货再膨胀政策。

在多重利好因素带动下，美元指数周五高见101.37, for2003year4月以来最高。金价则见连袂下跌，则新五个半月低点，至今已逼近1200美元关口。金价在11month9日特朗普赢得总统大选后触及1337.40美元的高位，至今下跌近10%。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已落入严重超卖卖区域，而金价在今年5月底勉力守住1200美元关口后，在之后的6月份则高歌猛涨，故留意若此趟下跌仍可守住此关口，则可望是重新吸纳的机会。较大支持预估在1197and1176美元。向上阻力料为1219，较大阻力预计为250Balance moving average1242and1260USD.

London Gold11month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1205 – 1219
Resistance level:1240 – 1260
Support bit:1197 – 1176

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton
11month3Day - 949.69ton
11month4Day - 949.69ton
11month7Day - 949.69ton
11month8Day - 949.69ton
11month9Day - 955.03ton
11month10Day - 941.68ton
11month11Day - 934.56ton
11month14Day - 928.93ton
11month15Day - 927.45ton
11month16Day - 926.26ton
11month17Day - 920.63ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价整理走势

伦敦白银方面，技术上银价仍见受制100Balance moving average, currently100The balance moving average is at18.95美元，视为关键阻力，较近的可先看16.80and17.40US dollars. Below is an estimate of support for16.10and15.60，较大支持预料为14.90USD.        

London Silver11month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.10 – 16.80
Resistance level:17.40 – 17.90
Support bit:15.60 – 14.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month31Day - 11218.19ton
11month1Day - 11235.90ton
11month2Day - 11148.60ton
11month3Day - 11148.60ton
11month4Day - 11148.60ton
11month7Day - 11148.60ton
11month8Day - 11148.60ton
11month9Day - 11178.11ton
11month10Day - 11136.79ton
11month11Day - 11095.48ton
11month14Day - 11080.73ton
11month15Day - 11080.73ton
11month16Day - 11080.73ton
11month17Day - 11080.73ton



EUR euro - 受累于对意大利公投的担忧

stayFederal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)Janet Yellon 释出强有力的信号，暗示美国年底前可能加息后，美元加速上涨。虽然耶伦没有明确说，美联储将在12month13-14日的政策会议上采取行动，但她在国会一委员会作证时表示，加息可能“相对很快”。她还承诺将完成至2018年的任期。美国总统当选人特朗普在竞选时称，当耶伦任期结束时，他将替换掉耶伦。另外，周四美国公布的数据给升息预期再添信心。10月房屋开工激增至九年高位，11month12日止当周经季节调整后的初请失业金人数减少1.9Wanzhi23.5Ten thousand people, for1973year11月以来的最低水平，消费者物价创下六个月最大升幅。该数据推高美债收益率，支撑美元。自上周美国大选后，美债收益率一直处于上行趋势，外界猜测特朗普政府将采取通货再膨胀政策。

周四公布的欧洲央行会议记录显示，该央行决策者上月同意有必要维持史无前例的货币刺激措施，并将在12月决定是否延其规模达1.74万亿欧元的资产购买计划。欧元兑美元本周以来累计下跌2.4%。

欧元兑美元走势，由上周三最高触及的1.13，至本周五低位1.0616，在不到一周的时间，已录得近700点跌幅，并令至相对强弱指标及随机指数均滑落至严重超卖区域，或见欧元兑美元短线有着回稳倾向。较近阻力先参考1.0650and1.0750，上月低位1.0848则为另一依据。下方支持则瞩目于1.0540and1.05Horizontal.

Focus:
11month22day(two): Eurozone11Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index
11month23day(three): Germany11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
11month24day(four)：德国第三季GDP‧France11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany11monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧eurozone11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Italy10Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance‧薪资指数‧Germany12monthGfKConsumer confidence index
11month25day(five): France11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧Retail sales‧

Related news
eurozone9Monthly industrial production decreased compared to the previous month0.8%, up from the same period last year1.2%
Germany Season 3GDP按季增长0.2%
法国第三季按国际劳工组织(ILO)标准计算的失业率升至10.0%
Germany10monthPPIUp from the previous month0.7%, down from the same period last year0.4%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0650 – 1.0750 – 1.0848
support 1.0540 – 1.0500 – 1.0400



JPY yen - 央行购债打压日圆

有鉴于日本央行周四无限量购买债券之举，市场对收益率差距的预期，亦扶助美元兑日圆涨势。此举突显了日本央行对于将指标10年期日债收益率维持在零水准是认真的，央行借此来控制收益率曲线，且维持较低的借贷成本。日本央行总裁黑田东彦周五不愿就foreign exchange汇率置评，但表示他感觉2-5年期日债收益率涨势是不适宜的。日本财务大臣麻生太郎称，汇市见到令人紧张的波动，但基本走势稳定。美元兑日圆周五曾一度涨至110.78, for6month1The highest ever.

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已高踞超买区域多日，需慎防美元随时出现回调机会。预料上方阻力为110水平，下一级则参考5month30Daily high111.43。支持位方面，可留意由9month27Daily low100.07至今的的累积涨幅计算，38.2%的调整幅度为104.95Expand to50%and61.8%Then they are respectively104and103水平；短线较近支撑可先留意200Balance moving average106.50Horizontal.

Focus:
11month21day(one): Japan10Monthly trade balance‧Annual export rate‧Annual import rate
11month24day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
11month25day(five): Japan10monthCPI‧Japan11monthCPI

Related news
财务大臣麻生太郎：如果美国大选导致日圆突然上涨，将有必要对外汇市场作出应对

日债收益率急升考验新政策框架，央行以特殊买债操作反击

Japan10月末外汇储备为1.242792Trillion US dollars

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 110.00 – 111.43
support 106.50 – 104.95 – 104.00 – 103.00



GBP pound - 技术超买

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑在十月份处于窄幅盘整，至本周初汇价升破了25Balance moving average, currently25The antenna is in1.23，只要英镑兑美元未有失守此区，技术上可望延续反扑势头。阻力先探50Balance moving average1.2650水平，上周五的高位正是受制于此技术指标；进一步攀升目标料为1.27and1.28水平。不过，要注意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，似乎英镑更为倾向面临着修正需要，较大支持位预估在1.2250and1.2180Horizontal.

Focus:
11month22day(two): UK10Monthly deduction of net public sector loans from state-owned banks‧Public sector net borrowing(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)‧britain11monthCBITotal industrial order difference
11month24day(four): UK10monthBBANumber of approved mortgage loans
11month25day(five): UK Season 3GDP修订‧企业投资初值‧britain10Monthly retail sales difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2630 – 1.2800
support 1.2300 – 1.2250 – 1.2180



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区域回升，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意250Balance moving average0.9820and1.00Pass, at10month25日汇价的升幅就曾止步于1.00关口，将视为一关键位置。至于下方较大支持仍会瞩目于0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440Horizontal.

Related news
Switzerland10The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is3.3%
Switzerland10月未经季节调整失业率为3.2%

Focus:
11month22day(two)Switzerland10Monthly trade balance
11month24day(four)：瑞士第三季工业订单年率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9820 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 特朗普入主白宫，风险资产承压

澳元兑美元上周三自上日高位0.7778回挫，又再一次是受制于0.77区间，自八月以来，澳元兑美元向上已屡次受制于此区间。预计当前较近阻力见于0.7750，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位则会回看0.7420Horizontal250天平均线位置，较大的延伸支撑料为0.7290Horizontal.

Related news
会议记录：澳洲央行通胀预估的风险大致均衡
IMF报告：澳洲经济仍具有韧性，需要增加政府支出

澳洲第三季薪资价格指数较前季上升0.4%, year-on-year increase1.9%，创纪录最低升幅
Australia10月新增就业人口9,800people
Australia10月失业率持稳在5.6%

Focus:
11month23day(three)：澳洲第三季建筑完工
11month24day(four)：澳洲第三季资本支出‧建筑类支出

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7750 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7420 – 0.7290



NZD New Zealand dollars - test0.70Gateway

纽西兰统计局数据周五显示，纽西兰生产者物价指数(PPI)第三季上升，投入物价升1.5%，产出物价升1%。该数据原定11month16日公布，但因本周地震造成损害，使数据推迟公布。

纽西兰统计局周五公布的数据显示，第三季零售销售较前季增长0.9%Increase compared to the same period last year5.1%。分析师原先预期纽西兰第三季零售销售较前季增长约0.85%。该数据原定11month15日公布，但因本周地震造成损害，使数据推迟公布。

纽元兑美元方面，面对美元近期的持续强势，纽元由上周二高位0.7403跌至本周五低见0.70。由周初至今，纽元在浮沉在0.70区间上，从图表走势所见，纽元兑美元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，随后开展反弹势头，如今又回落此水平，料将备受考验，倘若今趟下破，或会触发纽元将开展新一轮跌势。下一级测试目标料为250Balance moving average0.6950，较大支撑则会看至0.68To the extent that5月底低位0.6676。反之，若仍可守稳着0.70关口，技术上有机会组成双底型态，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域多时，可望纽元重新回稳，预估向上阻力先看0.7150and100Balance moving average0.7220The next key material is0.74Horizontal.

Related news
纽西兰第三季零售销售较前季增长0.9%
纽西兰第三季PPI投入物价上升1.5%，产出物价升1%

Focus:
11month25day(five): New Zealand10Monthly trade balance‧Import‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7180 – 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显著回升。短线较近支持为1.3380and1.32. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.35and1.36水平，下一级见于1.38。

Focus:
Friday: Canada10monthCPI
11month21day(one): Canada9Monthly wholesale trade rate
11month22day(two): Canada9Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3500 – 1.3600 – 1.3800
support 1.3380 – 1.3200 – 1.3000 – 1.2820






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)