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澳元上周走势持续上扬,美元之承压令澳元最高曾达至0.8792,但明显在0.88关口受阻回落,周五回跌,投资者抛售澳元而买入日圆,打击原本坚稳的澳元行情,但仍见守稳于0.87关口。波浪理论分析,澳元有机会刚运行完大型第VWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(v)伸延浪,并展开大型回吐A浪。澳元自2001year4月开始展开长期的大升浪,由01year4month3Daily low0.4814to01year8month21Daily high0.5389For the large sectionIWaves, and0.5389to01year9month18Daily low0.4814For the large sectionIIWaves,0.4814to04year2month18Daily high0.8003为大型上升浪的第III浪,波幅超过3000点子。当运行完第III浪后,由0.8003to04year6month18Daily low0.6772为大型的第IVWithin the wavesA浪,由0.6772to05year3month8Daily high0.7988为大型的第IVWithin the wavesBWaves. from0.7988to06year3month28Daily low0.7014为大型的第IVWithin the wavesC浪,由0.7014开始为大型上升浪的第V浪,并以伸延浪运行。即0.7014to06year5month9Daily high0.7791For the large sectionVWithin the waves(1)浪,由0.7791to06year6month27The low point of the day0.7269为第VWithin the waves(2)Within the wavesa浪,由0.7269to06year9month25Daily high0.7719为第VWithin the waves(2)Within the wavesbWaves, and0.7719to06year10month6Daily low0.7413为第VWithin the waves(2)Within the wavescWaves, that is, the entire section(2)浪在此完结。其后第(3)浪以次一级的伸延浪运行,即0.7413to07year1month3Daily high0.7979为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves1Stretching waves,0.7979to3month6Daily low0.7680为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves2Stretching waves,0.7680to4month19Daily high0.8391为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves3Stretching waves,0.8391to5month29The low point of the day0.8161为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves4Stretching waves,0.8161to7month25Daily high0.8870为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves5伸延浪,代表整个第(3)浪在此完结。而0.8870to8month17Daily low0.7673为第VWithin the waves(4)浪,其后第(5)浪再以次一级的伸延浪运行,即0.7673to8month27Daily high0.8333为第VWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(i)Stretching waves,0.8333to9month10Daily low0.8171为第VWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(ii)Stretching waves,0.8171to10month15Daily high0.9077为第VWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(iii)伸延浪。而0.9077to10month22Daily low0.8750为第VWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(iv)Stretching waves,0.8750to11month7日最高位0.9399为第VWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(v)伸延浪,亦代表澳元的大型上升浪在此完结。随之而来,澳元将运行大型回吐A浪,并以伸延浪运行。故0.9399至现在有机会为大型回吐AWithin the wavesI浪,预计澳元有机会反弹至0.89-0.92水平后再往下跌。

图表走势所见,澳元周中已见突破25天平均线之限制,配合5Tian Sheng Po10天平均线之利好交叉,并升穿一道下降趋向线,而RSIandSTC亦见持稳向上,令技术形势仍表现利好,澳元有望向短期下降通道顶部进发,目前处于0.8850Horizontal, while50Balance moving average0.8880则为下一个考验阻力;估计最大之阻力关键见于0.90关口。支持位则见于10Balance moving average0.8670水平,关键位置则仍持于0.85Gateway.

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )
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