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英国方面,上周有报告显示英国楼价下滑,巩固了市场对英国央行近期将降息的预期。全英房屋抵押贷款协会(Nationwide Building Society,NBS)周五公布12月英国房价连续第二个月下跌,使得房价年增幅创2006year5月以来最低,显示楼市进一步放缓。Nationwidecall12月平均房价较前月下跌0.5%,11Monthly housing prices have decreased compared to the previous month0.8%。12月房价年增幅从11Of6.9%lower4.8%。数据令英国央行有了降息的空间,市场预计英国央行在本月一致同意降息至5.50%后,将在明年年初,可能早至1月份就会再度降息。英镑贸易加权指数报97.80,为一年半最低水准,该指数本月以来大跌2.8%,势将录得2003year2月来最差月度表现。然而,英镑兑美元上周表现相对较好,因美元受疲弱经济数据和周四巴基斯坦前总理贝娜齐尔遇袭身亡后风险厌恶情绪升温的拖累。
英镑兑美元上周一度升穿重要心理关口2美元水准,曾触及2.0022水平。图表所见,预计250天平均线将会成英镑之反制阻力,目前处于2.0040Horizontal, along with2.00关口将成关键。预估英镑可回稳此区上方可引发进一步涨势,以gold比率计算,38.2%反弹水平将为2.0260水平;较近之延伸阻力则预估为2.0220水平。另外,始于4月之趋向线则组建支撑于1.97关口,则视为关键支撑位,而较近支持则为1.99Horizontal.
(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )