Crossing the Sea 2016year11month8day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month8day

Focus this week:
11month8day(Tuesday)
United States10monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A9monthJOLTS职位空缺数

11month9day(Wednesday)
U.S.A9月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A9月批发销售月率修订

11month10day(Thursday)
U.S.A11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

11month11day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly federal budget
U.S.A11月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值



Important economic data released today:
17：30 britain9Monthly industrial production rate‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value-0.4%
17：30 britain9Monthly industrial production annual rate‧forecast+0.8%‧Previous value+0.7%
17：30 britain9Monthly manufacturing output rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.2%
17：30 britain9Annual rate of monthly manufacturing output‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value+0.5%
19：00 United States10月独立企业联盟(NFIB)Small Business Confidence Index‧Previous value94.10
21：15 Canada10月房屋开年率‧forecast19.510000 households‧Previous value22.0610000 households
21：30 Canada9Monthly building permit rate‧forecast-5.6%‧Previous value+10.4%
23：00 U.S.A9monthJOLTS职位空缺数‧forecast550.8Ten thousand‧Previous value544.3Ten thousand



News of the Week

FBI表示不对希拉里邮件事件进行指控
Reuters/益普索工具显示希拉里获胜可能性达90%

U.S.A9Monthly increase in consumer credit192.9USD100mn



11month7day
LondongoldMorning order price:1286.80
London gold afternoon fixing price:1283.05



Today's Introduction

FBI称不对希拉里邮件事件进行指控，美元和股市上涨

美元周二持稳，守住上日涨幅，市场押注美国民主党总统候选人希拉里克林顿将胜选，此前美国联邦调查局(FBI)消除了她面临刑事指控的阴影。美国大选即将登场，路透/益普索最后进行的调查，希拉里在大选中击败特朗普、入主白宫的可能性约为90%。美国联邦调查局(FBI)局长科米(James Comey)周日在给国会的信中表示，在完成检查新发现的与希拉里私人服务器相关的邮件之后，没有理由对她提出刑事指控。  该消息提振全球股市周一上涨，创下数周来最大涨幅。美股截至上周五已连跌九个交易日，为逾35年来最长连跌纪录。美元亦逆转之前的低迷走势转为上涨。



XAU London Gold - 美元回压制金价，聚焦美国大选

中国央行周一公布，10月末官方储备资产中黄金储备为753.48亿美元，环比减少28.21亿美元；以盎司计，10At the end of the month, the gold reserve is5,924万盎司，9At the end of the month5,911Ten thousand ounces.

World Gold Council(WGC) 周二的数据显示，第三季全球黄金购买量下降10%，因消费者需求下降、央行购买规模减半，不过黄金投资有所增长。WGC在最新的需求趋势报告中表示，由于供应量也增加4%，整体黄金市场季度供应过剩达166.3Tons, for2009年初来最高水平。消费者对金饰、金币与金条的需求大减25%，因为金价上涨令中国与印度等主要实货市场的买家却步。  中国消费者的黄金买需下降22%，因经济前景不明，以及品味改变影响民众对黄金的偏好。印度买需则下降了28%。第三季全球金饰需求因此下降20%, to493.1吨，创下五年来同期最低。  howeverWGC表示，金价下滑与节庆需求应能改善本季买需。第三季央行黄金购买量仅82吨，远低于去年同期的168吨。今年1-9月官方买盘规模为2010年以来最低。市场供应则有增长，因回收再利用的数量跳增30%，抵消金矿供应减少4%的影响。金矿供应减至832Tons.

金价周一下跌，录得五周来的最大单日跌幅，因美元和股市反弹，此前有消息称，希拉里不会因为使用私人邮件服务器面对刑事指控。  这增强了她在周二美国大选中获胜的机率。最终大选结果预计将于周三发布。另外，周日发布的华盛顿邮报/ABC最新民调以及NBC-华尔街日报最新民调显示，希拉里支持率领先对手特朗普。

技术图表所见，伦敦黄金近月处于强势反弹，重要阻力料看100Balance moving average1315水平，在之前八月及九月份，金价亦是以此指标为重要支持依据，故支持变阻力下，应当亦为关键参考，倘若破位将可望金价延展又一轮涨势，后续目标见于1321and1340。即市较近阻力预计在1291and1303美元。支持位则预估在1272and1265美元，进一步看至1247and250Balance moving average1240Horizontal.

London Gold11month8day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1272 – 1291
Resistance level:1303 – 1321
Support bit:1265 – 1247

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton
11month3Day - 949.69ton
11month4Day - 949.69ton
11month7Day - 949.69ton


12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价整理走势

伦敦白银方面，经过上周之涨势后，本周早段银价表现持稳，技术上暂见受制100Balance moving average, currently100The balance moving average is at19美元，倘若破位，可望银价将进一步上探19.40To the extent that19.80US dollars. Below is an estimate of support for18.10and25Balance moving average17.75，较大支持预料为200Balance moving average17.82USD.

London Silver11month8day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.10 – 18.60
Resistance level:18.90 – 19.40
Support bit:17.70 – 17.40

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton
10month27Day - 11218.19ton
10month28Day - 11218.19ton
10month31Day - 11218.19ton
11month1Day - 11235.90ton
11month2Day - 11148.60ton
11month3Day - 11148.60ton
11month4Day - 11148.60ton
11month7Day - 11148.60ton



EUR euro - 美元反扑，观望大选结果

周一公布的调查显示，欧元区投资者信心11月进一步改善，达到年内最高位，缓解了European Central Bank(ECB) 出台更多刺激措施的压力。

欧元兑美元走势，当前阻力至200Balance moving average1.1180，此水平应会面对较严峻阻力，破位目标料在1.1280and1.14。下方支持则预估在25Balance moving average1.1030and1.09水平，较大支撑料为1.0880Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: France9Budget balance within the month and year to date‧流动帐平衡‧trade balance
Thursday: France9Monthly industrial production rate‧法国第三季非农就业岗位季率‧Italy9Monthly industrial production‧Germany11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: Germany10monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value

Related news
欧洲央行称将在下月圣诞节假期前加快购债步伐，12month22-30日期间暂停购债
意大利央行执委称，ECB正考虑延长QE而不是缩减

Germany9月工业生产环比降1.8%，跌幅超预期且创两年多最深
Germany9月经季节调整出口较前月减少0.7%Import decreased compared to the previous month0.5%
Germany9月经季节调整贸易顺差为213100 million euros

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1180 – 1.1280 – 1.1400
support 1.1030 – 1.0900 – 1.0880*



JPY yen - 风险偏好回升打压日圆

日本财务大臣麻生太郎周二表示，如果美国总统大选结果导致日圆急升，日本将有必要对汇市波动做出应对。麻生太郎是在被问到关于市场臆测，若美国共和党总统候选人特朗普11month8日胜选，避险的日圆可能急遽上升时做出此番表述的 。

美元周二持稳，守住上日在希拉里获胜希望增强提振下录得的涨幅。此前美国联邦调查局(FBI)消除了她面临刑事指控的阴影。路透/益普索最后进行的调查，希拉里在大选中击败特朗普、入主白宫的可能性约为90%。美国联邦调查局(FBI)局长科米(James Comey)周日在给国会的信中表示，FBI没有改变7月所做的结论，即在希拉里使用私人邮件服务器处理公务一案中，没有理由对她提出刑事指控。该消息提振全球股市周一上涨，创下数周来最大涨幅。美股截至上周五已连跌九个交易日，为逾35年来最长连跌纪录。美元兑日圆持稳于104区间，远高于上周四触及的一个月低位102.54。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已从超卖区域回升，同时，美元兑日圆跌势亦暂见止步于50Balance moving average102.80水平，短期可望汇价重踏升势。上方阻力料为105and105.50水平，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average106.80水平。支持位预估为103.40and102.80，另外可留意由9month27Daily low100.07to10month28Daily high105.53Calculate the cumulative increase in price,50%and61.8%的调整幅度分别为102.80and102.15Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan10月银行贷款年率‧流动帐
Thursday: Japan9月核心机械订单‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week
Friday: Japan10monthCGPI‧Japan11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Related news
财务大臣麻生太郎：如果美国大选导致日圆突然上涨，将有必要对foreign exchange市场作出应对

Japan10月末外汇储备为1.242792Trillion US dollars

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 105.50 – 106.80
support 103.40 – 102.80 – 102.15



GBP pound - 技术超买，还看美国大选

英镑兑美元周一下跌，市场对希拉里将赢得周二美国总统大选的信心不断增强，带动美元全线走强。英镑上周则创下七年表现最好的一周。周日美国联邦调查局(FBI)没有改变7月所做的结论，即在希拉里使用私人邮件服务器处理公务一案中，没有理由对她提出刑事指控。消息带动美元兑多数主要货币上涨，英镑也不例外。因对英国可能走上“硬退欧”道路并失去单一市场准入的疑虑得到缓解，带动英镑上周大涨近3%。周一英镑兑美元跌见至1.24水平下方。

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，前一周英镑处于窄幅盘整，汇价更于上周四升破了25Balance moving average, currently25The antenna is in1.2320，只要汇价未有失守此区，技术上可望延续反扑势头。阻力先探1.25水平，进一步攀升目标料为1.2630and1.28水平。不过，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已从超买区域回落，需慎防英镑仍面临着修正需要，较大支持位预估在1.2250and1.2180Horizontal.        

Focus:
Tuesday: UK10monthBRC同店零售销售年率‧britain9Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output
Wednesday: UK9Monthly trade balance with non EU regions‧全球商品贸易平衡
Thursday: UK10monthRICSPrice difference‧britain11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: UK9月建筑业产出

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2630 – 1.2800
support 1.2320 – 1.2250 – 1.2180



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷入超卖区域，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意250Balance moving average0.9820and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440Horizontal.

Related news
Switzerland10The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is3.3%
Switzerland10月未经季节调整失业率为3.2%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9820 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 受风险偏好提振

在完成检查新发现的与希拉里私人服务器相关的邮件之后，美国联邦调查局(FBI)周日表示仍然相信没有理由指控希拉里。该消息加大了希拉里胜选的概率，也提振了全球市场人气。而之前10month28dayFBI重启邮件门调查的消息曾令全球市场大跌。投资者认为，希拉里若当选会带来更大的确定性和稳定性。  虽然上周的民调显示，特朗普与希拉里的差距在缩小，但周一至少有五项重要民调显示希拉里仍领先。

澳元周二持于两周半高位附近，受到冒险意愿回升所提振，此前美国联邦调查局(FBI)消除了希拉里因邮件问题受到刑事指控的可能性。澳元亦受到铁矿石和煤炭价格大幅反弹的提振。

技术图表所见，较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看100Balance moving average0.7580And the upward trend line0.7530，跌破此区将见澳元重回弱势发展，延伸目标看至0.7410of250天平均线位置。

Related news
NAB: Australia10月企业现况指数跌至正6
NAB: Australia10月企业信心指数跌至正4

Focus:
Thursday: Australia9Monthly housing financing‧Investment oriented housing financing
Friday: Australia11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7580 – 0.7530 – 0.7410



NZD New Zealand dollars - 重启升势

纽元兑美元方面，图表所见，纽元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，则开展反弹势头，至10month20日升见0.7265,虽然此后出现回吐，但近日已见重新攀升，并于本周三出现显著升幅，突破了10month20日的高位，技术上料有进一步上涨空间，目标先看0.7380，下一级关键则是9月份未有突破的0.75关口。支持位则会回看50Balance moving average0.7230and0.7180Expected significant support in0.71Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand10月房价指数同比涨12.7%，为央行限贷政策以来最慢增速

Focus:
11month9day(three): New Zealand10月电子卡零售销售
11month10day(four)：纽西兰央行利率决定
11month11day(five): New Zealand10月制造业表现指数(PMI)‧食品价格指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.7230 – 0.7180 – 0.7100



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Focus:
11month8day(two): Canada10月房屋开年率‧Canada9Monthly building permit rate
11month10day(four): Canada11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Canada9Monthly New Housing Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)