Crossing the Sea 2016year11month4day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month4day

Focus this week:
11month4day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment data
U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance

11month7day(Monday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment trend index

11month8day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9Monthly Consumer Credit
United States10monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A9monthJOLTS职位空缺数

11month9day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate
U.S.A9月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A9月批发销售月率修订

11month10day(Thursday)
U.S.A11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits

11month11day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly federal budget
U.S.A11月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值
U.S.A11月密西根大学现况指数
U.S.A11月密西根大学预期指数



Important economic data released today:
17：00 eurozone10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast53.5‧Previous value53.5
17：00 eurozone10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast53.7‧Previous value53.7
18：00 eurozone9Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value-0.2%
18：00 eurozone9Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast-1.8%‧Previous value-2.1%
20：30 U.S.A10Monthly non-agricultural employment positions‧Forecast increase17.5ten thousand people‧Previous value increase15.6ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A10Monthly private employment positions‧Forecast increase16.6ten thousand people‧Previous value increase16.7ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing employment positions‧Predicted decrease0.5ten thousand people‧Previous value decrease1.3ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A10月政府部门就业岗位‧Previous value decrease1.1ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A10Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast4.9%‧Previous value5.0%
20：30 U.S.A10Monthly average hourly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 U.S.A10Monthly and weekly average working hours‧forecast34.4‧Previous value34.4
20：30 U.S.A10Monthly labor force employment participation rate‧Previous value62.9%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance‧forecast378A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value407A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 Canada10Monthly job changes‧Predicted decrease1.00Ten thousand‧Previous value increase6.72Ten thousand
20：30 Canada10Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast7.0%‧Previous value7.0%
20：30 Canada10Monthly employment participation rate‧forecast65.6%‧Previous value65.7%
20：30 Canada9Monthly trade balance‧forecast17.0A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value19.4A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 Canada9Monthly export‧Previous value434.1Billion
20：30 Canada9Monthly imports‧Previous value453.5Billion
22：00 Canada10monthIveyPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value68.1
22：00 Canada10monthIvey经季节调整采购经理人指数(PMI)‧Previous value58.4



News of the Week

澳洲央行维持货币政策不变
The Bank of Japan maintains monetary policy unchanged
美联储按兵不动，为12月加息铺路

U.S.A10Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by50.6
U.S.A9Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)The price index has increased compared to the previous month0.2%
U.S.A9Monthly personal income increased compared to the previous month0.3%
U.S.A9monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.2%
U.S.A9Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%, up from the same period last year1.7%
U.S.A9月个人支出较前月增加0.5%
China10Monthly official manufacturingPMIby51.2, creating2014year7The highest in the past month
China10Monthly official non manufacturing industryPMIby54.0, creating2015year12The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A10monthADP民间就业岗位增加14.7Ten thousand
Last week in the United Statescrude oil库存猛增逾1,400万桶，创纪录最大增幅
U.S.AISM-10月非制造业指数下降至54.8
U.S.A9月工厂订单较上月增加0.3%
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value increases54.8, for2015year11The highest since the beginning of the month
美国第三季非农生产力环比年率初值为增长3.1%
美国一周初请失业金人数为26.5ten thousand people



11month3day
LondongoldMorning order price:1293.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1301.00



Today's Introduction

美元在美就业报告公布前脱离低点，但仍受制于大选疑虑

周四数据显示，随着新订单和雇佣放缓，美国10月服务业活动降温，暗示经济增长在第四季初趋软。其它数据显示，上月美国雇主计划裁撤岗位数量下降31%至五个月低点，突显出就业市场基本面情况良好，不过上周申请失业金的美国人数增加。美国供应管理协会(ISM)Announcement,10月美国服务业指数从9Of57.1lower54.8，低于预估，但高于50The watershed of prosperity and decline.

随着下周二的美国大选越来越近，几项民调显示角逐愈发激烈，虽然最新的路透/益普索调查显示，希拉里仍领先6个百分点。投资人普遍认为对希拉里较为熟知，她不会做出扰乱金融市场的重大改革，而特朗普的立场则难以确定。随着大选结果的不确定性增强，避险情绪笼罩着全球市场。标普500指数已连跌八天，创2008year10月市场崩盘以来最长连跌期；与此同时，避险债券仅获得温和提振，黄金亦飙升到1,300美元上方的一个月高点。



XAU London Gold - 美元升势暂缓，金价伺机突破

美国总统大选选情胶着，投资者对黄金的避险买需仍然强劲，金价徘徊于1300水平附近。自希拉里电邮门发酵以来，人气已经发生改变。投机兴趣已从美国加息转向了总统大选。美国民主党总统候选人希拉里克林顿的支持者紧张地关注着民调情况 ，周四的民调结果显示，希拉里对共和党候选人特朗普握有微弱的领先优势。美国非农就业报告将在周五稍晚公布，投资者期望从中找到美联储12月是否升息的线索。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust周四黄金持仓量增加0.47%to949.69Tons.

伦敦黄金方面，金价近月处于强势反弹，当前阻力料先看100Balance moving average1315，在之前八月及九月份，金价亦是以此指标为重要支持依据，故支持变阻力下，应当亦为关键参考，倘若破位将可望金价延展又一轮涨势，后续目标见于1325and1343。支持位则预估在1277美元，进一步看至1255。

London Gold11month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1299 – 1315
Resistance level:1325 – 1343
Support bit:1277 – 1255


中国黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金产量同比下降2.56%，黄金消费量降12.82%

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton
11month3Day - 949.69ton


12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88，直至本周初，开始见有向上突破顶部的迹象，相信一旦破位，白银走势亦将会迎来爆发出一段单边行情。下方支持见至18.20and17.50水平。倘若向上确切企稳17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise19.10To the extent that19.80The US dollar is facing significant resistance20.30Horizontal.

London Silver11month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.20 – 19.10
Resistance level:19.80 – 20.30
Support bit:17.50 – 16.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton
10month27Day - 11218.19ton
10month28Day - 11218.19ton
10month31Day - 11218.19ton
11month1Day - 11235.90ton
11month2Day - 11148.60ton
11month3Day - 11148.60ton



EUR euro - 呈技术反弹，中线维持弱势

European Central Bank(ECB)经济月报称，欧元区经济应该会继续以温和和稳定步伐复苏，但这一前景面临下行风险，主要来自全球经济增长低迷和政治不确定性。

受制于对大选前景不明的不安情绪，一周来美元多数时间下跌。大部分民调仍显示，支持率难分伯仲，这是令投资者不安的根本原因。最新的路透/易普索民调显示，希拉里的支持率微幅领先特朗普。不过几个特朗普必须拿下的摇摆州，已从偏向希拉里转为五五波，令特朗普阵营看到一线曙光。特朗普宣称要限制移民，重新考虑贸易关系，并对进口商品实行高关税。一些人担心他当选会对全球贸易和经济增长构成风险。

鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数亦自超卖区域回升，可望短期欧元尚有进一步反弹空间，当前阻力至250Balance moving average1.11，此水平应会面对较严峻阻力，破位目标料在1.1160and1.12。另外，亦要留意，从中期走势而言，欧元兑美元尚处弱势发展。周线图所见，汇价已跌破由年初起始之上升趋向线支撑，而10周平均线跌破25周平均线，亦示意着欧元的下跌趋势，估计中线重要支撑区域将是1.0450to1.05。

Focus:
Friday: Italy10monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧eurozone10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone9monthPPI
11month7day(one): Germany9Monthly industrial order rate‧eurozone11monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone9Monthly retail sales
11month8day(two): Germany9Monthly industrial production rate‧出口月率‧进口月率‧trade balance‧France9Budget balance within the month and year to date‧流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧Import‧Export
11month10day(four): France9Monthly industrial production rate‧法国第三季非农就业岗位季率‧Italy9Monthly industrial production‧Germany11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
11month11day(five): Germany10monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value

Related news
欧元区第三季GDPGrowth compared to the previous season0.3%Growth compared to the same period last year1.6%
eurozone10月通胀率升至0.5%
Germany9Menstrual season adjustmentILOIncrease in employed population3.1ten thousand
eurozone9The monthly unemployment rate has decreased10.0%

欧洲央行称欧元区经济料继续温和稳定复苏，但面临下行风险

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1100 – 1.1160 – 1.1200
support 1.0850 – 1.0500* – 1.0450*



JPY yen - 央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

美国总统大选进入最后冲刺阶段，希拉里“邮件门”令选情充满变量。金融市场困惑加深，市场不确定性愈发严重。美元走势受压，避险资产受青睐，日圆和瑞郎受益。

美元兑日圆周二及周三显著下滑，并已跌破近月来形成的上升趋向线，技术上反映汇价仍见下调压力。由9month27Daily low100.07至上周五高位105.53Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的调整水平为103.44，相当接近周三午间触及的低位，若进一步扩展至50%and61.8%的调整幅度，则可看至102.80and102.15。预计关键支持则指向101.20Horizontal. The estimated resistance above is104and105.50水平，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.10Horizontal.

Focus:
11month7day(one): Japan9Monthly overtime pay
11month8day(two): Japan10monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan9Monthly Simultaneous Indicator Monthly Rate‧Leading indicator monthly rate
11month9day(three): Japan10月银行贷款年率‧流动帐
11month10day(four): Japan9月核心机械订单‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week
11month11day(five): Japan10monthCGPI‧Japan11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Related news
Japan10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe final value is51.4，扩张速度为九个月来最快
Japan10Monthly service industryPMIfrom9Of48.2Ascend to50.5，为三个月来首见扩张

央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 104.00 – 105.50 – 107.10
support 102.80 – 102.15 – 101.20



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

英国央行取消降息计划，称未来升息降息均有可能，受英镑在英国公投退欧后下滑影响，英国央行上调了对2017年的增长和通胀预估。英国央行迅速调整了对英国经济将在何时感受到公投负面影响的看法。该央行接近于零的利率备受政界批评。在周四发布的季度预测中，英国央行预计短期冲击不大，但警告称，英国对欧盟市场的准入可能会“大幅削减”，从而在“较长一段时间内”损及英国经济成长。为应对公投退欧的冲击，英国央行在8月份将利率降至0.25%的纪录低位，并自2012年以来首次重启大规模购债计划。央行当时还表示，今年有可能再度降息。但在周四却转为中性立场，预计受英镑兑美元跌至31年低位影响，通胀有望实现冲过目标位的创纪录突破。英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)在一份声明中称，预计到明年此时通胀率有望跳增至2.7%，将近当前水准的三倍。预计通胀率将于2018年上半年在2.8%以上触顶，之后缓慢回落。英国央行预计通胀率要到2020年才会回升至2%。英国央行周四称，九名委员在11月政策会议上以9票全票同意维持利率在纪录低点0.25%不变，与路透访问的经学家的预估一致。而且委员们一致同意，坚持8月制定的购买共计4,350亿英镑公债及100亿英镑企业债的计划。

英镑走势本周走势受到显著提振。英国高等法院裁决，政府启动里斯本条约第50条需要得到议会批准。这给投资者带来希望，此前投资者担心，首相梅翠珊的内阁将采取对经济具有破坏性的“硬脱欧”策略。此外，英国服务业增长的数据，以及英国央行最新通胀报告均推高英镑。同时美元受特朗普有可能赢得大选的担忧拖累，也让英镑从中受惠。

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，汇价更于本周四升破了25天平均线，技术上可望延续反扑势头。阻力先探1.25水平，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.2630and1.28水平。支持位预估在1.2250and1.21Horizontal.

Focus:
11month7day(one): UK10monthHalifax房价指数月率英国截至10Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
11month8day(two): UK10monthBRC同店零售销售年率‧britain9Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output
11month9day(three): UK9Monthly trade balance with non EU regions‧全球商品贸易平衡
11month10day(four): UK10monthRICSPrice difference‧britain11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
11month11day(five): UK9月建筑业产出

Related news
英国央行总裁卡尼决定延长一年任期，助英国平稳脱欧

NATIONWIDE: UK10月房价较前月持平，较上年同期上涨4.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷入超卖区域，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意250Balance moving average0.9820and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440Horizontal.

Related news
瑞士央行总裁称仍将致力于负利率和干预汇市的货币政策

瑞士第四季消费者信心指率数报负13

Focus:
11month7day(one)Switzerland10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
11month8day(two)Switzerland10Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9820 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged

澳洲央行周五公布的货币政策声明称，“有理由展望”能实现可持续的经济成长，因商品价格在中国的强劲需求帮助下上涨，提振了澳洲的贸易条件。这暗示目前不考虑进一步降息。澳洲央行在声明中预计，明年澳洲经济成长将位于潜在增长率附近，2018年将加速至3-4%。特别是，澳洲央行还上调大宗商品出口展望，此前澳洲第二大出口收入来源煤炭价格大幅上涨，这拉高了贸易条件。 澳洲央行对经济增长和通胀的预估维持不变，与8月相同。央行预计明年经济将扩张2.5-3.5%，核心通胀料持稳于1.5%，2018年底则升至2%。澳洲央行预计劳工成本将在预测期内保持低位，并警告围绕就业市场闲置劳力的不确定性上升，以及这最终对通胀会有何种程度的影响。 澳洲央行称，租金疲弱对通胀产生下行压力，尽管建筑活动增强，但房屋建设成本的增长放慢。不过，该央行指出，悉尼和墨尔本房价大幅上涨，一直让政策制定者担忧。澳洲央行重申，担心墨尔本和布里斯班部分中心城区的公寓供应有过剩风险。

澳元兑美元本周虽连日上涨，但累计涨幅却未能推动其超越0.77美元障碍。澳洲央行周五公布的货币政策声明称，“有理由 展望”能实现可持续的经济成长，因商品价格在中国的强劲需求帮助下上涨，提振了澳洲的贸易条件。澳洲统计局周五公布，9月经季节调整零售销售较前月增长0.6%。 Reuters survey estimates growth0.4%。这更加让人揣测澳洲央行为期五年的宽松举措几乎已经结束，澳元因而短暂走扬。

技术图表所见，较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看100Balance moving average0.7560And the upward trend line0.7520，跌破此区将见澳元重回弱势发展，延伸目标看至0.7410of250天平均线位置。

Related news
Australia9月经季调商品/服务贸易收支为逆差12.27AUD 100 million
Australia9月经季调商品/服务出口较前月增加2%，进口下滑1%
Australia9月经季节调整零售销售较前月增长0.6%
澳洲第三季经季节调整零售销售较前季下降0.1%

货币政策声明：澳洲央行看好经济增长前景，因商品价格攀升

Focus:
11month7day(one): Australia10monthAIG建筑业指数‧ANZ整体招聘广告
11month8day(two): Australia10monthNABBusiness Status Index‧NABBusiness confidence index
11month10day(four): Australia9Monthly housing financing‧Investment oriented housing financing
11month11day(five): Australia11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7560 – 0.7520 – 0.7410



NZD New Zealand dollars - 重启升势

周五公布的一项路透调查显示，分析师普遍预期纽西兰央行11month10日政策会议料将官方隔夜拆款利率调降25Bps to1.75%The record low point.33位受访分析师中，30名预估纽西兰央行将降息，三名预期维持利率不变。多数分析师预期后续不会再降息，但有八名分析师预计明年利率将于1.50%触底。此项调查询问了分析师对11month10日会议后，及接下来五季季末利率动向的看法。

纽元兑美元方面，图表所见，纽元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，则开展反弹势头，至10month20日升见0.7265,虽然此后出现回吐，但近日已见重新攀升，并于本周三出现显著升幅，突破了10month20日的高位，技术上料有进一步上涨空间，目标先看0.7380，下一级关键则是9月份未有突破的0.75关口。支持位则会回看50Balance moving average0.7230and0.7180Expected significant support in0.71Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand10月房价指数同比涨12.7%，为央行限贷政策以来最慢增速

Focus:
11month9day(three): New Zealand10月电子卡零售销售
11month10day(four)：纽西兰央行利率决定
11month11day(five): New Zealand10月制造业表现指数(PMI)‧食品价格指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Focus:
Friday: Canada10Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada9Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import
11month8day(two): Canada10月房屋开年率‧Canada9Monthly building permit rate
11month10day(four): Canada11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Canada9Monthly New Housing Price Index

Related news
Canada9月工业产品价格指数较前月上涨0.4%, down from the same period last year0.5%

央行总裁：认真考虑了上调通胀率目标的可能性

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)