Crossing the Sea 2016year11month3day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month3day

Focus this week:
11month3day(Thursday)
U.S.A10monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
美国第三季单位劳工成本初值
美国第三季非农业生产率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A9Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturing index

11month4day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment data
U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance




Important economic data released today:        
17：00 Italy9Monthly unemployment rate‧Previous value11.4%
17：30 britain10monthMarkit/CIPSCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value52.6
18：00 eurozone9Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast10.1%‧Previous value10.1%
20：00 britain11Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution
19：30 U.S.A10monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs‧Previous value44,324individual
20：30 美国第三季单位劳工成本初值‧forecast+2.5%‧Previous value+4.3%
20：30 美国第三季非农业生产率‧forecast+1.3%‧Previous value-0.6%
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(10month29Day and Week)‧Previous value25.8ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(10month29Day and Week)‧Previous value25.3ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(10month22Day and Week)‧Previous value203.9ten thousand people
21：45 U.S.A10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.8
21：45 U.S.A10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.9
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.2%
22：00 U.S.A9月扣除运输的工厂订单月率‧Front value remains unchanged
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision‧Previous value-0.1%
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation‧Previous value+0.2%
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense‧Previous value+0.7%
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft‧Previous value-1.2%  
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Non manufacturing index‧forecast56.0‧Previous value57.1



News of the Week

澳洲央行维持货币政策不变
The Bank of Japan maintains monetary policy unchanged
美联储按兵不动，为12月加息铺路

U.S.A10Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by50.6
U.S.A9Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)The price index has increased compared to the previous month0.2%
U.S.A9Monthly personal income increased compared to the previous month0.3%
U.S.A9monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.2%
U.S.A9Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%, up from the same period last year1.7%
U.S.A9月个人支出较前月增加0.5%
China10Monthly official manufacturingPMIby51.2, creating2014year7The highest in the past month
China10Monthly official non manufacturing industryPMIby54.0, creating2015year12The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A10monthADP民间就业岗位增加14.7Ten thousand
Last week in the United Statescrude oil库存猛增逾1,400万桶，创纪录最大增幅



11month2day
LondongoldMorning order price:1295.85
London gold afternoon fixing price:1303.75



Today's Introduction

希拉里和特朗普选情差距缩小，金融市场紧张情绪升

美国总统大选将在下周进行，随着民主党候选人希拉里克林顿和共和党候选人特朗普的角逐接近尾声，金融市场益发紧张不安，因民调显示两名候选人的差距缩小。虽然多数民调仍显示希拉里赢面较大，但她在上月末的大幅领先优势不再，投资者开始考虑特朗普胜选的可能性。全球股市、美元和原油下跌，黄金和瑞郎等避险资产上涨，因投资者对选情紧绷感到担忧。

美联储周三维持利率不变，但暗示可能在12月加息。这是美联储在美国总统大选前的最后一次货币政策决定。美联储政策制定委员会表示，经济动能已经增强，就业增长保持稳健。美联储政策制定者也对通胀正朝2%目标迈进表达了更加乐观的看法。这表明，在12月加息的门坎看来已经很低了。金融市场已经大致消化了这一因素。美联储发布政策声明后，美国股市延续稍早跌势，美国公债收益率下滑。美元兑一篮子货币一度缩减跌幅，之后进一步下滑。



XAU London Gold - 美元升势暂缓，金价伺机突破

Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME) take2016year11Month and12monthCOMEX-100goldfutures维持保证金要求由每张合约5,400美元上调11.1%, to6,000USD.

伦敦黄金周四持稳，上日涨幅一度达到1.5%Touching10month4日以来最高点1307.76美元，因美国大选的不确定性抵消了美联储暗示下个月可能升息的影响。美国联邦储备理事会(FED)周三维持利率不变，但暗示可能在12月加息，因经济动能加强且通胀上升。然而，政治面因素盖过美联储11月政策会议的影响，美国大选两党候选人的支持率差距不断收窄。

伦敦黄金方面，金价近月处于强势反弹，当前阻力料先看1308，更为关键将指向100Balance moving average1314，在之前八月及九月份，金价亦是以此指标为重要支持依据，故支持变阻力下，应当亦为关键参考，倘若破位将可望金价延展又一轮涨势，后续目标见于1319and1339。支持位则预估在1286美元，进一步看至1275。

London Gold11month3day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1296 – 1308
Resistance level:1319 – 1339
Support bit:1286 – 1275

中国黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金产量同比下降2.56%，黄金消费量降12.82%

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton


12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88，直至本周初，开始见有向上突破顶部的迹象，相信一旦破位，白银走势亦将会迎来爆发出一段单边行情。下方支持见至18.10and17.90水平。倘若向上确切企稳17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.70To the extent that19.00The US dollar is facing significant resistance19.70Horizontal.

London Silver11month3day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.40 – 19.00
Resistance level:19.40 – 20.00
Support bit:18.00 – 17.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton
10month27Day - 11218.19ton
10month28Day - 11218.19ton
10month31Day - 11218.19ton
11month1Day - 11235.90ton
11month2Day - 11148.60ton



EUR euro - 呈技术反弹，中线维持弱势

美元周四整理跌幅；对美国总统选举的忧虑加剧 ，盖过了美国联邦储备理事会(FED)最新政策评估。美联储决策者仍然暗示他们下月有可能升息。尽管民主党候选人希拉里在周二投票前的很多民调中仍然领先，但一些投资者开始消化共和党候选人特朗普当选的可能性。RealClearPolitics公布的民调平均结果显示，希拉里的支持率周三仅比特朗普高1.7%，支持率分别为47%and45.3%。不过路透/益索普民调显示，希拉里支持率领先特朗普6Percentage points.

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(Federal Reserve/FED)周三维持利率不变，但暗示，可能在12月加息，因经济动能加强且通胀上升。这是美联储在美国总统大选前的最后一次货币政策决定。据芝加哥商业交易所集团(CME Group)FedWatch Tool ，交易商押注美联储12月升息机率为72%。

欧元兑美元持稳在1.11水平附近，最高见至1.1126Yes10month11日以来最高。欧元走势在前期均未可明确跌穿1.0850水平，促使了欧元作出技术性修正。鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数亦自超卖区域回升，可望短期欧元尚有进一步反弹空间，当前阻力至250Balance moving average1.11，此水平应会面对较严峻阻力，破位目标料在1.1160and1.12。另外，亦要留意，从中期走势而言，欧元兑美元尚处弱势发展。周线图所见，汇价已跌破由年初起始之上升趋向线支撑，而10周平均线跌破25周平均线，亦示意着欧元的下跌趋势，估计中线重要支撑区域将是1.0450to1.05。

Focus:
Wednesday: Italy10monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany10monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Changes in the number of unemployed individuals‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧eurozone10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
Thursday: Italy9Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9Monthly unemployment rate
Friday: Italy10monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧eurozone10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone9monthPPI

Related news
欧元区第三季GDPGrowth compared to the previous season0.3%Growth compared to the same period last year1.6%
eurozone10月通胀率升至0.5%
Germany9Menstrual season adjustmentILOIncrease in employed population3.1ten thousand

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1100 – 1.1160 – 1.1200
support 1.0850 – 1.0500* – 1.0450*



JPY yen - 央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

美元周四继续下跌，因美国总统大选的局势盖过了美国联邦储备理事会(FED)会议的影响，美联储决策者仍然暗示他们下月有可能升息。美国联邦储备理事会(FED)周三维持利率不变，但暗示，可能在12月加息，因经济动能加强且通胀上升。这是美联储在美国总统大选前的最后一次货币政策决定。据芝加哥商业交易所集团(CME Group)FedWatch Tool，交易商押注美联储12月升息机率为72%。美元兑日圆跌见至102.50水平。汇市关注焦点仍然是希拉里领先特朗普的优势缩小，尽管民主党候选人希拉里克林顿在周二投票前的很多民调中仍然领先，但一些投资者开始消化共和党候选人特朗普当选的可能性。另外，有报导称日本佐世保一美国海军基地发生枪击案，之后该基地关闭。该消息进一步打压亚洲市场风险人气，并进一步推高对日圆的避险买需。美国非农就业报告将于周五发布，路透调查的106位经济学家的预估中值显示，10月料新增17.5Ten thousand job opportunities.

美元兑日圆周二及周三显著下滑，并已跌破近月来形成的上升趋向线，技术上反映汇价仍见下调压力。由9month27Daily low100.07至上周五高位105.53Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的调整水平为103.44，相当接近周三午间触及的低位，若进一步扩展至50%and61.8%的调整幅度，则可看至102.80and102.15。预计关键支持则指向101.20Horizontal. The estimated resistance above is104and105.50水平，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.10Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Related news
Japan10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe final value is51.4，扩张速度为九个月来最快

央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 104.00 – 105.50 – 107.10
support 102.80 – 102.15 – 101.20



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

调查显示，英国建筑业活动10月触及七个月最高，因住房建筑活动增长，但前景受到订单放缓及建筑材料价格飙升打压而显得黯淡。Markit/CIPSbritain10Monthly Purchasing Managers Index for the Construction Industry(PMI)Unexpected elevation52.6, higher than9Of52.3，路透调查的分析师原本预期指数将下滑至51.8。尽管该调查结果与英国6月退欧公投几个月来经济保持成长动能的迹象一致，但有明确迹象显示明年可能将更加艰难。

图表走势所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，同时，5Tianhe10天平均线正呈黄金交叉，估计若汇价仍然未有进一步破底的情况下，将面临大举反扑的风险。阻力先探上周高位1.2329，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.25and1.2630水平。支持位预估在1.2080and1.20Gateway.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK10monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
Thursday: UK10monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI‧britain11Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution

Related news
英国央行总裁卡尼决定延长一年任期，助英国平稳脱欧

NATIONWIDE: UK10月房价较前月持平，较上年同期上涨4.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷入超卖区域，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意250Balance moving average0.9820and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440Horizontal.

Related news
瑞士央行总裁称仍将致力于负利率和干预汇市的货币政策

瑞士第四季消费者信心指率数报负13        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9820 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged

澳洲统计局周四公布的数据显示，9月出口较前月增加2%，受助于煤与金属价格劲扬，与此同时，贸易逆差减少为12.27亿澳元，路透访问的分析师预估为逆差17亿澳元。澳洲硬焦煤现货价今年已飙涨230%，至每吨258美元最高位。这让澳洲受益颇丰。澳洲每月出口总额约为28亿澳元，煤在其中占到十分之一。澳洲统计局补充称，它的数据尚未完全体现大宗商品价格的上涨，暗示未来发布的数据中，出口有可能上调，贸易逆差或下调。

技术图表所见，较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看100Balance moving average0.7560And the upward trend line0.7520，跌破此区将见澳元重回弱势发展，延伸目标看至0.7410of250天平均线位置。

Related news
Australia9月经季调商品/服务贸易收支为逆差12.27AUD 100 million
Australia9月经季调商品/服务出口较前月增加2%，进口下滑1%

Focus:
Friday: Australia9Monthly retail sales rate‧澳洲第三季零售贸易

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7560 – 0.7520 – 0.7410



NZD New Zealand dollars - 重启升势

技术图表所见，纽元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，则开展反弹势头，至10month20日升见0.7265,虽然此后出现回吐，但近日已见重新攀升，并于本周三出现显著升幅，突破了20日的高位，技术上料有进一步上涨空间，目标先看0.7380，下一级关键则是9月份未有突破的0.75关口。支持位则会回看50Balance moving average0.7230and0.7180Expected significant support in0.71Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand10月房价指数同比涨12.7%，为央行限贷政策以来最慢增速

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Focus:
Friday: Canada10Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada9Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

Related news
Canada9月工业产品价格指数较前月上涨0.4%, down from the same period last year0.5%

央行总裁：认真考虑了上调通胀率目标的可能性

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)