Crossing the Sea 2016year11month2day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month2day

Focus this week:
11month3day(Thursday)
美联储联邦基金利率
U.S.A10monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
美国第三季单位劳工成本初值
美国第三季非农业生产率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A9Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturing index

11month4day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment data
U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance



Important economic data released today:
17：00 eurozone10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast53.3‧Previous value53.3
17：30 britain10monthMarkit/CIPS建筑业采购经理人指数(PMI)‧Previous value52.3
20：15 U.S.A10monthADPChanges in private employment positions‧Forecast increase16.3Ten thousand‧Previous value increase15.4Ten thousand

11month3day (Thursday)
02：00 美联储宣布利率决议



News of the Week

澳洲央行维持货币政策不变
The Bank of Japan maintains monetary policy unchanged

U.S.A10Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by50.6
U.S.A9Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)The price index has increased compared to the previous month0.2%
U.S.A9Monthly personal income increased compared to the previous month0.3%
U.S.A9monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.2%
U.S.A9Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%, up from the same period last year1.7%
U.S.A9月个人支出较前月增加0.5%
China10Monthly official manufacturingPMIby51.2, creating2014year7The highest in the past month
China10Monthly official non manufacturing industryPMIby54.0, creating2015year12The highest since the beginning of the month



11month1day
LondongoldMorning order price:1284.40
London gold afternoon fixing price:1288.45



Today's Introduction

部分民调显示特朗普领先希拉里后美元受创

周二公布数据显示，美国10月工厂活动连续第二个月上升，因生产和雇用加速，令人更加认为陷入困境的制造业部门在第四季可能恢复一些动能。美国供应管理协会(ISM)10月全国活动指数上升0.4Point to51.9，高于荣枯分水岭50；生产分项指数上升1.8Point to54.6。但新订单指数从9Of55.1lower52.1，说明制造业未来活动增长温和。制造业就业指针跳升3.2Point to52.9。

美元周三整体承压，因部分民调显示，共和党总统候选人特朗普领先于民主党候选人希拉里克林顿，之前联邦调查局称正在调查新发现的与希拉里使用私人服务器有关的电子邮件。据周一公布的路透/益普索(Ipsos)民调，希拉里支持率领先特朗普5个百分点，变化不大。但ABC News的调查显示特朗普领先1个百分点，洛杉矶时报更是显示其领先逾两个百分点。这打破了希拉里将会轻松获胜的预期。距离美国总统大选不到一周的时间，政治情势盖过基本面，美联储将在周三稍晚公布利率决议。美联储料将维持利率不变，但可能为12月升息铺路，因有迹象显示经济的动能正在回升。



XAU London Gold - 美元升势暂缓，金价伺机突破

金价周三触及1296上方的一个月高位，因投资者越加担心全球经济前景，而且在有迹象显示美国选情更加紧绷 之际，投资者开始寻找避险资产。美国联邦调查局(FBI) 重新调查民主党总统候选人希拉里克林顿的电子邮件后，市场更加焦虑，投资者看好黄金和其它安全资产，而不是股票等高风险资产。 市场亦正等待Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED) 今日稍晚结束两日政策会议，以厘清美国升息趋势。

伦敦黄金方面，金价近月处于强势反弹，当前阻力料先看50Balance moving average1299，更为关键将指向100Balance moving average1314，在之前八月及九月份，金价亦是以此指标为重要支持依据，故支持变阻力下，应当亦为关键参考，倘若破位将可望金价延展又一轮涨势，下个目标看至1320and1334。支持位则预估在1285and1268USD.

London Gold11month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1285 – 1297
Resistance level:1303 – 1320
Support bit:1268 – 1252


中国黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金产量同比下降2.56%，黄金消费量降12.82%

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton


12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88，直至本周初，开始见有向上突破顶部的迹象，相信一旦破位，白银走势亦将会迎来爆发出一段单边行情。下方支持见至18.10and17.90水平。倘若向上确切企稳17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.70To the extent that19.00The US dollar is facing significant resistance19.70Horizontal.

London Silver11month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.10 – 18.70
Resistance level:19.00 – 19.70
Support bit:17.90 – 17.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton
10month27Day - 11218.19ton
10month28Day - 11218.19ton
10month31Day - 11218.19ton
11month1Day - 11235.90ton



EUR euro - 呈技术反弹，中线维持弱势

美元周三下滑，因对美国总统大选的不确定性，投资者深感不安。部分民调显示，共和党总统候选人特朗普的支持率小幅领先，此前，联邦调查局上周五称将对调查新发现的与希拉里使用私人服务器有关的电子邮件。距离美国总统大选不到一周的时间，政治情势盖过基本面，美联储将在周三稍晚公布利率决议，但可能会仅为次要事件。美联储料将维持利率不变，但可能为12月升息铺路，因有迹象显示经济的动能正在回升。

技术走势而言，欧元走势在前期均未可明确跌穿1.0850水平，促使了欧元作出技术性修正。鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数亦自超卖区域回升，可望短期欧元尚有进一步反弹空间，当前阻力至250Balance moving average1.11，此水平应会面对较严峻阻力，破位目标料在1.1160and1.12。另外，亦要留意，从中期走势而言，欧元兑美元尚处弱势发展。周线图所见，汇价已跌破由年初起始之上升趋向线支撑，而10周平均线跌破25周平均线，亦示意着欧元的下跌趋势，估计中线重要支撑区域将是1.0450to1.05。

Focus:
Wednesday: Italy10monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany10monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Changes in the number of unemployed individuals‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧eurozone10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
Thursday: Italy9Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9Monthly unemployment rate
Friday: Italy10monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧eurozone10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone9monthPPI

Related news
欧元区第三季GDPGrowth compared to the previous season0.3%Growth compared to the same period last year1.6%
eurozone10月通胀率升至0.5%
Germany9Menstrual season adjustmentILOIncrease in employed population3.1ten thousand

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1100 – 1.1160 – 1.1200
support 1.0850 – 1.0500* – 1.0450*



JPY yen - 央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

美元处于守势，因迹象显示，在11month8day美国总统大选前选情胶着 ，投资者对此感到紧张不安。 迹象显示，共和党候选人特朗普的落后差距可能正在缩小，市场开始重新斟酌他们长期以来对民主党候选人希拉里将获胜的预期，促使资金撤出风险资产，转投日圆和黄金等避险资产。近几个交易日来投资人益发担心特朗普当选，因特朗普对外交政策、贸易关系和移民等数个议题的立场充满不确定性。希拉里则被视为能维持现状的候选人。联邦调查局上周五称，将调查新发现的与希拉里使用私人服务器有关的电子邮件。在该消息后，美国大选选战看来更加紧绷。据周一公布的路透/益普索(Ipsos)民调，希拉里支持率领先特朗普5个百分点，变化不大。但其它民调则显示，特朗普领先1-2Percentage points.

技术图表所见，美元兑日圆在过去两周处于盘整阶段，估计105关口若果仍然未可突破，则短期或会面临回调风险，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数已进入超买区域，更为深化回跌压力。估计下试支持看至100Balance moving average102.90The next level material is101.50。另一边厢，倘若可向上突破105关口，则美元兑日圆有机会再开展新一轮涨势，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.30，留意美元兑日圆7month21日触及的高位在107.47，这更显得此区的重要性，进一步将看至108To the extent that110Gateway.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Related news
Japan10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe final value is51.4，扩张速度为九个月来最快

央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.30 – 108.00 – 110.00
support 102.90 – 101.50



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

图表走势所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，同时，5Tianhe10天平均线正呈黄金交叉，估计若汇价仍然未有进一步破底的情况下，将面临大举反扑的风险。阻力先探上周高位1.2329，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.25and1.2630水平。支持位预估在1.2080and1.20Gateway.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK10monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
Thursday: UK10monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI‧britain11Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution

Related news
英国央行总裁卡尼决定延长一年任期，助英国平稳脱欧

NATIONWIDE: UK10月房价较前月持平，较上年同期上涨4.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

瑞士央行总裁乔丹表示，央行将紧盯市场对美国总统大选的反应，随时准备好采取行动以限制“被大幅高估”的瑞郎汇率。瑞郎兑欧元周二升穿1.08, reaching6月底以来最强水准。交易员表示，随着市场对特朗普可能成为美国总统的预期增加，引发避险资金流入瑞郎。乔丹暗示，瑞士的开放型经济以出口为导向，且规模较小，如果美国开始反对自由贸易将对瑞士不利。

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
瑞士央行总裁称仍将致力于负利率和干预汇市的货币政策

Focus:
周四：瑞士第四季消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged

技术图表所见，较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看100Balance moving average0.7560And the upward trend line0.7520，跌破此区将见澳元重回弱势发展，延伸目标看至0.7410of250天平均线位置。

Focus:
Wednesday: Australia9Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit
Thursday: Australia10monthAIGService Industry Index‧Australia9月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
Friday: Australia9Monthly retail sales rate‧澳洲第三季零售贸易

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7560 – 0.7520 – 0.7410



NZD New Zealand dollars - 维持弱势下行

纽西兰央行周三公布的一项调查显示，国内短期通胀预期在第四季小幅上升。这项代表纽西兰央行所进行的季度预期调查显示，企业经理预测未来一年平均年通胀为1.29%，前次调查为1.26%。两年期通胀预期则从1.65%Ascend to1.68%。这一时间跨度被视为纽西兰央行政策行动对物价产生影响的时间。

纽元兑美元触及两周高点0.7250，此前纽西兰公布上季失业率降至近八年低位，助长了央行宽松周期或几近结束的揣测。纽元10月挫跌1.8%，此前纽西兰央行暗示下周政策会议需要降息来刺激国内通胀并抑制纽元。周三数据显示，就业人口较上年同期增幅达到令人瞠目的6.1%，为纪录最快增长，就业参与率也达70.1%的至少25年来高位。近期奶价反弹也给纽元支撑，最近一次拍卖中全球奶价指数跳涨11.4%。

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7190and50Balance moving average0.7250Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand10月房价指数同比涨12.7%，为央行限贷政策以来最慢增速

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

加拿大央行总裁波洛兹周二表示，央行认真考虑过上调通胀率目标，以便为降息赢得更大弹性，但仍确定，非常规工具可以提供的调控空间比原先认为的更大。他在一次讲话中为央行继续沿用2%通胀目标的决定辩护，称央行确曾考虑过上调目标，因许多经济体的利率已经处在或接近纪录低点。加拿大央行10月表示考虑降息，但仍将指标利率维持在0.5%。该央行在2015年曾降息两次。波洛兹为央行继续将通胀目标定在1-3%区间的中点辩护，称推动通胀率升至3%“或许很难做到，而且鉴于通胀预期稳定在2%的牢固程度，或许需要出现一些重大的经济波动时方可提高通胀。他还表示，上调通胀目标将意味着更高的名义利率以及更大的操控空间，平均而言，这会对经济施加更高的通胀税。波洛兹还称，将货币政策与稳定金融体系的努力分开来是合情合理的，因为与调整利率这种“十分迟钝的工具”相比，政府政策更适用于应对楼市过热或家庭债务高企等威胁。波洛兹重申了央行必须聚焦于通胀风险、而非金融体系面临的风险。他表示，相比利率政策，收紧房贷规定等宏观审慎的措施是应对金融稳定风险的更好途径。

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Focus:
Friday: Canada10Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada9Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

Related news
Canada9月工业产品价格指数较前月上涨0.4%, down from the same period last year0.5%

央行总裁：认真考虑了上调通胀率目标的可能性

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)