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金慧眼:油价两周大幅下挫 50美元回天无力

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Jin Huiyan:
油价两周大幅下挫 50美元回天无力

International news surface
过去两周内油价已大幅下挫,因投资者开始怀疑OPEC能否使其所有成员国参与旨在稳定crude oil市场的减产协议。即期美原油futuresHas been removed from10月中旬的约52dollar/桶下跌至47dollar/桶;布伦特原油期货从逾52dollar/桶下跌至49dollar/Bucket.OPECstay9月阿尔及利亚会议上达成了初步协议,同意将产量限制在3250-330010000 barrels/日之间,实际上就是同意削减产量。但是,该协议的最终细节,包括哪些成员国参与减产、每个国家减产额度等细节仍需待11month30Daily heldOPEC大会确定。



原油沥青行情分析
今天将公布EIA原油库存数据,11月市场的关键因素不止在于冻产协议的达成还有库存变化。虽然库存数据在10month21日当周意外下滑,并且已经八周内第七次下降,但分析人士认为,随着冬季的到来,石油需求可能进一步减弱,从而抑制库存减少的趋势。早间API原油库存数据再次增加,金慧个人认为油价还将下探46美元,在冻产“难产”的情况下,这无疑是雪上加霜,金慧本人预测EIA大概率利空,油价或许会寻找到支撑,后市原油市场解析可添加本人微信:qjinhh


Four hour online,K线下行通道完整,震荡于布林带中轨至布林带下轨之间,布林带开口向下,MA6/MA10交死叉运行,副图MACD双头向下处于0轴下方运行,绿色动能柱缩量,KDJ均线低位走缓;综上所述,金慧认为目前大趋势上油价依旧是空头占优,若OPEC对冻减产仍旧没有实质性的进展,那么油价恐难回50美元,操作上金慧建议以高空为主。


美原油日间操作建议
1、45.9Long on the US dollar, stop loss0.3美元,目标看到46.8USD one line;


2、47.3Short the US dollar on the first line, stop loss0.3美元,目标看到46.0USD one line;


epilogue
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