Crossing the Sea 2016year11month1day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month1day

Focus this week:
11month1day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean
U.S.A10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A9Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A10monthISMManufacturing Index
U.S.A10monthISMInput price sub index

11month2day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10monthADPChanges in private employment positions

11month3day(Thursday)
美联储联邦基金利率
U.S.A10monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
美国第三季单位劳工成本初值
美国第三季非农业生产率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A9Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturing index

11month4day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment data
U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance



Important economic data released today:        
17：30 britain10monthMarkit/CIPSManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast54.5‧Previous value55.4
20：30 Canada8Monthly Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.5%
21：30 Canada10monthRBCSeasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value50.3
21：45 U.S.A10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.2
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly construction expenditure rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value-0.7%
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Manufacturing Index‧forecast51.7‧Previous value51.5
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧forecast54.0‧Previous value53.0
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧forecast50.0‧Previous value49.7
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value55.1



News of the Week

澳洲央行维持货币政策不变
The Bank of Japan maintains monetary policy unchanged

U.S.A10Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by50.6
U.S.A9Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)The price index has increased compared to the previous month0.2%
U.S.A9Monthly personal income increased compared to the previous month0.3%
U.S.A9monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.2%
U.S.A9Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%, up from the same period last year1.7%
U.S.A9月个人支出较前月增加0.5%
China10Monthly official manufacturingPMIby51.2, creating2014year7The highest in the past month
China10Monthly official non manufacturing industryPMIby54.0, creating2015year12The highest since the beginning of the month


10month31day
LondongoldMorning order price:1274.20
London gold afternoon fixing price:1272.00


Today's Introduction

10月中国官方和财新制造业PMI双创27Monthly high point

生产和新订单回暖、企业预期持续向好，带动中国10月官方和财新制造业PMI双双创下逾两年高位，官方非制造业PMI亦触及10个月高点。经济回温迹象愈发明显，预计年内中国经济增速不会再现下降，完成全年经济增长目标已无悬念。中国国家统计局和物流与采购联合会(CFLP)周二联合公布，宏观经济先行指针--10Monthly Official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by51.2，高于路透调查预估中值50.4And create2014year7月来最高，当时为51.7；上月为50.4。10月官方非制造业商务活动指数为54.0, creating2015year12月来最高，当前为54.4;亦高于上月的53.7，延续良好的发展势头。同日财新/Markit联合公布的中国10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIUp to51.2, creating2014year7月以来最高水平，且该指数已经连续四个月在50上方运行。上月为50.1。

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)周三料维持利率不变，但在经济出现成长动能上升的迹象之际，美联储将为12月升息做好铺垫。美联储对升息越加有信心，主席耶伦曾于9月称，假如就业和通胀持续增强，那么今年底前可能将升息。自那以来的数据显示美国就业仍在稳健成长，消费者物价显示出增长迹象，这两项指标均接近美联储的长期预估。美国经济成长亦有所改善，在上半年经济成长表现疲弱后，第三季GDPThe initial value of the month on month annual rate is growth2.9%。投资者几乎排除了美联储在本周会议上升息的可能性，因为届时距美国大选只差一周时间。一些美联储官员近期表示，12月升息会更好。ABC News/华盛顿邮报周日公布的一项民调显示，民主党候选人希拉里的支持率仅仅领先共和党候选人特朗普1个百分点，领先优势仅在误差范围内。



XAU London Gold - 美元升势暂缓，金价伺机突破

中国黄金协会最新统计数据显示，今年前三季度，全国累计生产黄金347.798吨，同比下降2.56%。全国黄金消费量为720.66吨，同比下降12.82%。新闻稿指出，截至2016year9end of month,China's gold reserves 已达到5,91110000 ounces(1,838.527ton)。虽然黄金价格出现反弹，但受宏观经济低迷影响，2016年前三季度，中国黄金首饰消费整体表现低迷，黄金首饰用金477.99吨，同比下降20.04%。

本周主要央行将召开的会议中，Federal Open Market Committee of the United States(FOMC) 周二和周三的会议将得到市场密切关注，市场将从中寻找升息时机的线索。根据CME GroupofFedWatch Tool，市场认为美联储12月升息概率为78%左右，但本周升息概率仅为6%。 U.S.A10月非农就业数据将在周五公布。

伦敦黄金方面，暂且见在10月上旬金价于1250水准附近筑好技术底部，只要继续守稳此区，短期金价料维持靠稳发展，目前向上较近阻力可参考1286and1295USD, next level material is1300The US dollar barrier. The following support can be found in1275and1267USD, further estimated as1258USD.

London Gold11Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:1318 – 1359 – 1398 – 1437
Support bit:1258 – 1237 – 1200 – 1161

London Gold11month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1275 – 1286
Resistance level:1295 – 1318
Support bit:1267 – 1258


中国黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金产量同比下降2.56%，黄金消费量降12.82%

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton


12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88，直至本周初，开始见有向上突破顶部的迹象，相信一旦破位，白银走势亦将会迎来爆发出一段单边行情，倘若跌破200Balance moving average17.43的支撑位，延伸下试水准将看至16.70and15.70Horizontal; On the contrary, if there is a definite breakthrough upwards17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.30To the extent that18.70The US dollar is facing significant resistance19.10Horizontal.

London Silver11Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:19.10 – 20.30 – 21.40 – 22.60
Support bit:17.30 – 16.70 – 15.70 – 14.70

London Silver11month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.50 – 18.10
Resistance level:18.30 – 18.70
Support bit:17.30 – 16.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton
10month27Day - 11218.19ton
10month28Day - 11218.19ton
10month31Day - 11218.19ton



EUR euro - 呈技术反弹，中线维持弱势

据周一发布的路透/益普索(Ipsos)民调，希拉里支持率领先特朗普5个百分点，自上周FBI披露最新电邮事件后稍有缩小。由于外界认为希拉里当选会维持现状，FBI调查的消息打压美元，令美元脱离受美国联邦储备理事会(FED)12月升息预期升温提振触及的高位。不过上周希拉里电子邮件重遭调查的消息爆出后，主要货币对基本上仍处于原有区间。

欧元兑美元自月初以来持续走弱，至上周二跌至1.0848，创三月份以来最低水平。然而，周三欧元出现显著反弹，回返至1.09水平，在之前三个交易日均未可明确跌穿1.0850水平，促使了欧元作出技术性修正。鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数亦自超卖区域回升，可望短期欧元尚有进一步反弹空间，首个阻力应先指向1.10关口，至于上至250Balance moving average1.11水平应会面对较严峻阻力。另外，亦要留意，从中期走势而言，欧元兑美元尚处弱势发展。周线图所见，汇价已跌破由年初起始之上升趋向线支撑，而10周平均线跌破25周平均线，亦示意着欧元的下跌趋势，估计中线重要支撑区域将是1.0450to1.05。        

Focus:
Wednesday: Italy10monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany10monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Changes in the number of unemployed individuals‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧eurozone10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
Thursday: Italy9Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9Monthly unemployment rate
Friday: Italy10monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧eurozone10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone9monthPPI

Related news
欧元区第三季GDPGrowth compared to the previous season0.3%Growth compared to the same period last year1.6%
eurozone10月通胀率升至0.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1000 – 1.1100 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.0850 – 1.0500* – 1.0450*



JPY yen - 央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

日本央行总裁周二未扩大刺激举措，但调降其通胀预测并警告物价展望有风险，表明其将按兵不动，除非有严重的冲击令脆弱经济复苏有脱轨之虞。尽管日本央行维持其经济温和改善的预测不变，但其再次推迟达到2%通胀目标的时间，并警告物价动能较三个月前来得疲弱。日本央行一如外界普遍预期，维持短期利率目标在负0.1%不变，并誓言引导10年期政府公债收益率在零附近。在季度预估检讨中，日本央行将2018year3月结束的下一财年核心消费者通胀率预估降至1.5%，7Estimated monthly hours are1.7%。

美元周二小涨，市场对美国总统大选的关注程度超过了其它重要市场事件，美国联邦调查局(FBI)重启希拉里“邮件门”事件的调查，令投资者感到担忧。日本央行宣布维持政策不变，一如市场预期。日本央行的决定几乎未对日圆走势造成影响。日本央行总裁周二未扩大刺激举措，但调降其通胀预测并警告物价展望有风险。美联储为期两天的会议将于周三结束。市场认为大选之前升息的概率很小，但交易员将仔细考量其政策声明，以寻找关于下次升息时间的线索。根据CME GroupofFedWatch工具，市场认为美联储12月升息的概率约为78%，本周升息概率仅为6%。市场还将关注周五的美国10月非农就业报告，以判断就业市场改善程度是否足以支持美联储采取行动。根据路透调查中100名分析师的预估中值，预计10Monthly job creation17.5Ten thousand.

技术图表所见，美元兑日圆在过去两周处于盘整阶段，估计105关口若果仍然未可突破，则短期或会面临回调风险，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数已进入超买区域，更为深化回跌压力。估计下试支持看至104and100Balance moving average102.90The next level material is101.50。另一边厢，倘若可向上突破105关口，则美元兑日圆有机会再开展新一轮涨势，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.30，留意美元兑日圆7month21日触及的高位在107.47，这更显得此区的重要性，进一步将看至108To the extent that110Gateway.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Related news
Japan10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe final value is51.4，扩张速度为九个月来最快

央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.30 – 108.00 – 110.00
support 104.00 – 102.90 – 101.50



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

英国央行总裁卡尼周一表示，他将在任期届满后延长一年，直至2019year6月，以帮助英国顺利走完脱离欧盟的过程。但这仍要比一个完整的任期短两年。卡尼可以选择续任到2021年，但这位加拿大人决定不会完成八年任期。他在6月公投前警告英国脱欧可能面临经济风险，因而受到脱欧派的严厉批评。他说，其续任决定应有助于确保英国脱欧后的有序过渡。受此消息提振，英镑周一触及日高1.2240USD.

图表走势所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，同时，5Tianhe10天平均线正呈黄金交叉，估计若汇价仍然未有进一步破底的情况下，将面临大举反扑的风险。阻力先探上周高位1.2329，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.25and1.2630水平。支持位预估在1.2080and1.20Gateway.

Focus:
Tuesday: UK10monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
Wednesday: UK10monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
Thursday: UK10monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI‧britain11Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution

Related news
英国央行总裁卡尼决定延长一年任期，助英国平稳脱欧

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
11month1day(two)Switzerland9Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland10Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
11month3day(four)：瑞士第四季消费者信心指数        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged

澳洲央行周二连续第三个月维持利率不变，市场认为出口价格激增带来意外收获以及对火热楼市的担忧，可能意味着该央行五年宽松周期几乎已告一段落。在澳洲央行月度政策会议决定维持利率在1.5%纪录低位不变，且没有明确给出宽松倾向后，澳元走坚。鉴于在大宗商品出口价格走升下，决策者已对经济展望发出乐观看法，因此该按兵不动的决定是在普遍预料之中。单是煤价跳升，若升势维持不坠，额外年收入就能有250亿澳元。银行间利率期货暗示，明年降息的可能性有三分之一，此前为二分之一。

澳元周二跳涨创两周来最大升幅，因澳洲央行维持利率不变，且央行声明中未见明确趋于宽松倾向，与部份投资人事前臆测相左。澳元兑美元涨至0.7670水平上方，为10month19日以来最大升幅，且为连续第三天走升。

技术图表所见，较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看100Balance moving average0.7560And the upward trend line0.7520，跌破此区将见澳元重回弱势发展，延伸目标看至0.7410of250天平均线位置。

Focus:
Wednesday: Australia9Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit
Thursday: Australia10monthAIGService Industry Index‧Australia9月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
Friday: Australia9Monthly retail sales rate‧澳洲第三季零售贸易

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7560 – 0.7520 – 0.7410



NZD New Zealand dollars - 维持弱势下行

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7190and50Balance moving average0.7250Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand10月房价指数同比涨12.7%，为央行限贷政策以来最慢增速

Focus:
周三：纽西兰第三季HLFSunemployment rate‧HLFSQuarterly employment growth rate‧HLFSEmployment participation rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Focus:
Tuesday: Canada8monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada10monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
Friday: Canada10Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada9Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

Related news
Canada9月工业产品价格指数较前月上涨0.4%, down from the same period last year0.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)