Crossing the Sea 2016year10month31day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month31day

Focus this week:
10month31day(Monday)
U.S.A9Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A9Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A9月经调整后的个人支出月率
U.S.A9monthPCEprice index
U.S.A10Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A10月达拉斯联储德州制造业活动指数

11month1day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean
U.S.A10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A9Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A10monthISMManufacturing Index
U.S.A10monthISMInput price sub index

11month2day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10monthADPChanges in private employment positions

11month3day(Thursday)
美联储联邦基金利率
U.S.A10monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
美国第三季单位劳工成本初值
美国第三季非农业生产率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A9Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturing index

11month4day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment data
U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance



Important economic data released today:
07：50 Japan9Initial value of monthly industrial production‧Previous value+1.3%
07：50 日本一个月预估值初值‧Previous value+2.2%
07：50 日本两个月预估值初值‧Previous value+1.2%
07：50 Japan9Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value-2.1%
08：00 New Zealand10月国民银行(NBNZ)商业展望指数‧Previous value27.9%
08：00 New Zealand10月国民银行(NBNZ)Business Activity Index‧Previous value42.4%
08：30 Australia9月民间部门信贷‧Previous value+0.4%
08：30 Australia9Monthly housing credit‧Previous value+0.5%
09：30 中国三季度规模以上文化及相关产业生产经营季度报告
13：00 Japan9Monthly construction order annual rate‧Previous value+13.8%
13：00 Japan9Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Previous value+2.5%
15：00 Germany9Monthly actual retail sales rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value-0.4%
15：00 Germany9Monthly actual retail sales annual rate‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+3.7%
18：30 britain9Monthly Consumer Credit‧Previous value increase15.74Billion
18：30 britain9Monthly mortgage loan disbursement amount‧Previous value increase29.43Billion
18：30 britain9Number of monthly mortgage loan approvals‧Previous value60,058piece
18：30 britain9monthM4Monthly rate of goods supply‧Previous value+0.9%
18：00 欧元区第三季国内生产总值(GDP)Initial value of quarterly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.3%
18：00 欧元区第三季国内生产总值(GDP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+1.6%
18：00 eurozone10Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.4%
18：00 Italy10Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧Previous value-0.2%
18：00 Italy10Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧Previous value+0.1%
18：00 Italy10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧Previous value+1.9%
18：00 Italy10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧Previous value+0.1%
19：00 Italy9Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value-0.2%
19：00 Italy9Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧Previous value-1.1%
20：30 Canada9月工业产品价格月率‧Previous value-0.5%
20：30 Canada9月工业产品价格年率‧Previous value-1.3%
20：30 Canada9月原材料价格月率‧Previous value-0.7%
20：30 Canada9月原材料价格年率‧Previous value+0.6%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly actual personal expenditure rate‧Previous value-0.1%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly personal income rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 U.S.A9月经调整后的个人支出月率‧forecast+0.4%‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+1.7%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+1.0%
21：45 U.S.A10Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast54.0‧Previous value54.2
22：30 U.S.A10月达拉斯联储德州制造业活动指数‧Negative front value3.7



10month28day
LondongoldMorning order price:1265.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1273.00



XAU London Gold - 美元升势暂缓，金价伺机突破

本周即将步入11月，又是一轮月初经济数据的密集发布期，除了各国的采购经理人数据备受关注之外，最大关注重点亦将是美国10月就业报告。此外，美国、日本、英国、澳洲央行亦将于本周召开利率决策会议，欧洲央行则会召开管理委员会，讨论未来可能的政策调整。虽然美国选举局势趋于明朗，但美国联邦储备理事会(FED)仍可能在下周的会议上继续维持利率不变，而等到今年12月的最后一次会议才再动手。不过市场早已开始反应升息题材，利率futures显示，市场预期美联储12月升息机率接近八成。据彭博报导，从股票、金属，到债券，全球市场波动率降至两年以来的最低水准。美元指数自10Month high99.12回落，并回到98关口上方交投。近日欧洲央行行长和英国央行行长的讲话降低了市场对其进一步宽松预期，触发美元多头获利了结。随着本周多间央行公布议息结果，美国就业报告公布、以及11月初美国总统大选，美元料将呈现区间波动。

美联储将在香港时间周三深夜两点宣布最新政策 ，各界多认为在距离美国总统大选投票日不到一周的情形下，美联储内部升息呼声虽高，但官员们可能还是会等选举结果底定后再说。美联储鸽派要角芝加哥联储总裁埃文斯表示，只要通胀预期和就业市场继续改善，美联储将在明年年底前升息三次，他不愿推测下次什么时候升息，仅暗示11Month12Month and1月没有什么区别。路透调查的分析师预计，美联储将在12月会议上升息，交易员则押注2017年底前升息不会超过两次。

伦敦黄金方面，近期表现强劲的美国数据已提高了美国提前升息的可能性，限制了金价升幅，上周一直未能稳企于1270水平上方，但至周五随着美元回吐深度加大，金价终可初步站稳1270上方，尾盘报1276水平。印度本月底庆祝印度教最重要的两个节日，即财神节(Dhanteras)和排灯节(Diwali)，亦帮助刺激对黄金的需求，从而支撑金价走势。技术图表所见，暂且见在10月上旬金价于1250水准附近筑好技术底部，只要继续守稳此区，短期金价料维持靠稳发展，目前向上较近阻力可参考1278and1285USD, next level material is1300The US dollar barrier. The following support can be found in1265and1252USD, further estimated as250Balance moving average1233USD.

London Gold10month31day – 1month4Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1288 – 1298 – 1310 – 1322
Support bit:1273 – 1263 – 1250 – 1238

London Gold10month31day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1274 – 1288
Resistance level:1297 – 1308
Support bit:1264 – 1252

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton

12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情  

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88, amplitude only60Remaining points. And below, there is a more obvious technical support200Balance moving average, currently located at17.39Horizontal. In the current situation of sideways trading, it is believed that once the level is broken, the silver trend will also usher in a unilateral trend. If it falls below the above technical support level, the extended lower trial level will be seen17.10and16.70Horizontal; On the contrary, if there is a definite breakthrough upwards17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.10To the extent that18.60The US dollar is facing significant resistance19.00Horizontal.

London Silver10month31day – 1month4Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:18.00 – 18.30 – 18.70 – 19.10
Support bit:17.40 – 17.10 – 16.70 – 16.00

London Silver10month31day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.20 – 18.20
Resistance level:18.60 – 19.00
Support bit:16.80 – 16.30

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton
10month27Day - 11218.19ton
10month28Day - 11218.19ton



EUR euro - 呈技术反弹，中线维持弱势

欧元兑美元自月初以来持续走弱，至上周二跌至1.0848，创三月份以来最低水平。然而，周三欧元出现显著反弹，回返至1.09水平，在之前三个交易日均未可明确跌穿1.0850水平，促使了欧元作出技术性修正。鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数亦自超卖区域回升，可望短期欧元尚有进一步反弹空间，首个阻力应先指向1.10关口，至于上至250Balance moving average1.11水平应会面对较严峻阻力。另外，亦要留意，从中期走势而言，欧元兑美元尚处弱势发展。周线图所见，汇价已跌破由年初起始之上升趋向线支撑，而10周平均线跌破25周平均线，亦示意着欧元的下跌趋势，估计中线重要支撑区域将是1.0450to1.05。

Focus:
10month31day(one): Germany9Monthly actual retail sales‧欧元区第三季GDPinitial value‧eurozone10monthHICPinitial value‧Italy10monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value‧Italy9monthPPI
11month2day(three): Italy10monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany10monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Changes in the number of unemployed individuals‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧eurozone10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
11month3day(four): Italy9Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9Monthly unemployment rate
11month4day(five): Italy10monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧eurozone10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone9monthPPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1000 – 1.1100 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.0850 – 1.0500* – 1.0450*



JPY yen - 央行料维持政策不变

技术图表所见，美元兑日圆在过去两周处于盘整阶段，估计105关口若果仍然未可突破，则短期或会面临回调风险，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数已进入超买区域，更为深化回跌压力。估计下试支持看至104and100Balance moving average102.90The next level material is101.50。另一边厢，倘若可向上突破105关口，则美元兑日圆有机会再开展新一轮涨势，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.30，留意美元兑日圆7month21日触及的高位在107.47，这更显得此区的重要性，进一步将看至108To the extent that110Gateway.

Focus:
10month31day(one): Japan9Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧零售销售年率‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
11month1day(two)：日本央行利率决定‧日本央行基础货币目标‧Japan10Month Day Meridian/MarkitmanufacturingPMI
11month2day(three): Japan10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
11month3day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.30 – 108.00 – 110.00
support 104.00 – 102.90 – 101.50



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

图表走势所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，同时，5Tianhe10天平均线正呈黄金交叉，估计若汇价仍然未有进一步破底的情况下，将面临大举反扑的风险。阻力先探上周高位1.2329，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.25and1.2630水平。支持位预估在1.2080and1.20Gateway.

Focus:
10month31day(one): UK9Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
11month1day(two): UK10monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
11month2day(three): UK10monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
11month3day(four): UK10monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI‧britain11Monthly central bank interest rate decision‧Scale of quantitative easing‧MPCVoting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)

Related news
britain10月工业订单差值从9The negative of the month5Reduce to negative17, creating2New low since September

英国央行总裁卡尼称不能无视英镑“相当明显的”下跌

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
11month1day(two)Switzerland9Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland10Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
11month3day(four)：瑞士第四季消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 强势美元打压澳元走势

术图表所见，较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看100Balance moving average0.7560And the upward trend line0.7520，跌破此区将见澳元重回弱势发展，延伸目标看至0.7410of250天平均线位置。

Focus:
10month31day(one): Australia9月民间部门信贷‧Housing credit
11month1day(two): Australia10monthAIGManufacturing Index‧Australia11Monthly central bank interest rate decision
11month2day(three): Australia9Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit
11month3day(four): Australia10monthAIGService Industry Index‧Australia9月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
11month4day(five): Australia9Monthly retail sales rate‧澳洲第三季零售贸易

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7560 – 0.7520 – 0.7410



NZD New Zealand dollars - 维持弱势下行

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7190and50Balance moving average0.7250Horizontal.

Focus:
10month31day(one): New Zealand10monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
11month2day(three)New Zealand Season 3HLFSunemployment rate‧HLFSQuarterly employment growth rate‧HLFSEmployment participation rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Focus:
10month31day(one): Canada9月工业产品价格‧原材料价格‧
11month1day(two): Canada8monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada10monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
11month4day(five): Canada10Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada9Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500







QR Code      http://app.mw801.com

Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)