Daqin Commodity-王起文：日内现货原油沥青布局分析及明日EIA个人看法

Daqin Commodity-王起文：日内现货crude oil沥青布局分析及明日EIA个人看法

　　据外媒周一(10month24day)The released survey results show that the inventory of crude oil in the United States will increase last week, while gasoline inventory and refined oil inventory will both record a decrease.

Based on the interviewees5Average expectations of top analysts, as of10month21US crude oil inventory expected to increase this week80Ten thousand barrels, gasoline inventory will decrease13010000 barrels, while refined oil storage will decrease140Ten thousand barrels.

In addition,10month21日当周精炼厂利用率预计将上升0.6%to85.6%。

US Energy Information Administration(EIA)According to published data, as of10month14During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased524.7Ten thousand barrels, to4.687亿桶，市场预估为增加270万桶。美国精炼油库存减少120万桶，连续四周录得下滑，市场预估为减少155.0Ten thousand barrels. US crude oil delivery site Cushing inventory reduction163.5Ten thousand barrels, with a decrease of4month8The maximum since the current week, with the previous value being a decrease131.8万桶。此外，上周美国原油日进口量减少91.2万桶。美国汽油库存增加250Ten thousand barrels, with an increase of2month12日当周以来最大，市场预估为减少130万桶。同时美国国内原油产量连续三周下滑后首次增加， 但连续28周在90010000 barrels/日关口下方。

　　美国石油学会(API)将推迟至北京时间周三(10month26day)04:30公布原油库存数据，而随后EIA将于当日22:30发布官方库存报告。

　　原油沥青技术分析及操作建议

　　原油周中冲高，周尾回落，油价跌宕起伏，最终的下探同样处于我们的预期内，周线上录得上影线较长的小阳，虽是五连阳排列，但上涨势能明显已无，加之周期指标的下探，周线理应转弱看空。日线上，价格处于高位整理，上周五录得阳住，不过价格并未收过短期均线上方，导致今早间开盘后出现跌势，MACD双线粘合高位初步死叉，绿柱开始冒头，随机指标死叉下探，日线已转空。技术面上的弱势空头较为突出，当然这也符合我们近期看空油价的观点，在基本面未能提供有效支撑下，短期内交易即要维持空头。

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