Vantage FXWanzhi: Euro to USD10month19Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Industrial Investment:
Tuesday Euro/The US dollar basically gave up its gains on Monday and fell back again1.10Pass, lowest descent1.0969, suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar. The inflation data released by the United States overnight is mixed. Data display, United States9monthCPIThe monthly rate meets expectations as0.3%The annual rate is also determined by1.1%Ascend to1.5%;coreCPIThe monthly and annual rates did not meet expectations and increased respectively0.1%and2.2%. The impact of this data on the expected interest rate hike in the United States this year is not significant, and the market still generally believes that12There is a high possibility of interest rate hikes in the month, and as a result, the US dollar has rebounded slightly. At present, the market is shifting its focus to the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday, which is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. However, the outlook for future bond purchases still needs to be learned from Draghi's speech. Today you can follow the Eurozone8Monthly production rate of the construction industry/Annual rate and the United States9Monthly data on new housing construction and construction permits.
The daily chart shows that the Euro/USD cannot break through the morning high of the Asian market1.1026, closing on1.10Below. Short to medium term bearish.4Hourly chart exchange rate hovers around recent decline1.1205-1.0963of23.6%Reverse gear1.1020Nearby, the exchange rate has returned to a slightly bearish position20SMABelow, the kinetic energy index hovers around100Below.RSISelf oversold rebounded. But it is still below the recent low, indicating a lack of buying enthusiasm.38.2%The retracement level coincides with Thursday's high point1.1055If broken, it will be corrected to rise higher.1Hour chart1.10After a slight fluctuation above the checkpoint, the previous trend of fluctuation and decline continued.
AustraliaGCG：
On Monday of this week, the US dollar emerged from a correction trend, while yesterday the US dollar continued to fluctuate slightly upwards. Therefore, after experiencing a slight increase, the euro once again started a downward trend and fell below again1.10The position of the lowest point touched within the day1.0970. At the daily level, the exchange rate is still in a clear bearish trend, with a downward trend,H4At the level of exchange rate rebound, the high point of the previous day's high has not been broken through,H4The exchange rate is still bearish on the level. During the day, the main focus was on empty orders, with points at1.1040Nearby. But we should be aware that1.09The area nearby is a dense trading area in the early stage of exchange rates, which provides some support.
Deng Fute:
Euro/The daily chart of the US dollar falls to7month25Daily low point1.0950Supported and hovering at a low level, with the extension of adjustment time, the euro will further break through support and fall towards1.0910. From the hourly chart trend, the euro/The US dollar rebounded to1.1025When encountering obstacles, it will fall back to the short-term low point1.0960Nearby, the current Euro is mainly focused on1.0960-1.1025Operating within the range, it is expected that the euro will continue its downward trend after continuous low level adjustments to break through support. The resistance during the short-term falling process1.1060。
Jiasheng Group:
The European Central Bank will release the eagerly anticipated policy resolution and hold a press conference at this Thursday's meeting. The current large-scale modulus easing policy of the European Central Bank is putting pressure on the euro. This Thursday, the market will closely monitor whether there are any signs that the central bank will2017year3At the end of the month, this roundQEExtend the asset purchase period later. If there are tangible signals pointing to a delay in volume easing, the pressure on the euro will intensify, and the euro will/The US dollar may fall significantly below the mentioned1.0950Regional support. But the European Central Bank may wait until12The monthly meeting will announce further resolutions on asset purchases, and in this situation, the euro may continue to fluctuate in trading range. Of course, such as European Central Bank President Mario-Draghi sends a forward-looking signal on monetary policy, and the euro will also be significantly affected.
Against the backdrop of further easing signals from the European Central Bank, coupled with the Federal Reserve12Expected monthly interest rate hike continues, Euro/The US dollar may face a significant downward trend, looking ahead1.0950Below the support area. Prior to this, the currency pair had sharply fallen below last week1.1100Important consolidation area above. This downward trend soon encountered a subsequent decline, driving the exchange rate to a slightly above the current key support level. The currency pair has recently been6Month and7The monthly test1.0950Support, after two tests, both experienced strong rebounds. This time, if the above conditions for the situation of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are met, the exchange rate may explore key support after falling below support1.0800Nearby short-term downward targets.
Banda Asia:
The euro fluctuated and fell yesterday, with a slight daily decline. The current exchange rate was traded at1.0990Nearby. Analysis suggests that the bearish technical indicators of the euro are the main reason for the pressure on the euro to weaken due to the suppression of technical selling. In addition, during the time period, the United States announced9The overall performance of monthly inflation data is good, supporting the Federal Reserve12The expected interest rate hike in the month has also put some pressure on the euro. However, the decline of the euro was limited by the weakening of the US dollar index due to profit taking and investors remaining cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday. Follow Today1.1080Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.0900Near.
　　Qiniu International:
Euro/pound1On the hourly chart, in euros/GBP in10month7Daily rise400Remaining points, highest touch0.9260, reaching a six-year high, the exchange rate has already recouped most of its gains,50HUnder the moving average100HMean Square and200HMoving average,MACDThe green kinetic energy column remains stable,RSIstay40Nearby, the exchange rate is running between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Belt. Currently, there may be obstacles at the middle track, and there is a high possibility of a downward trend in the exchange rate. Let's take a look at the target0.8848(20Daily moving average)、0.8714。
　　5On the minute chart, in euros/The pound is currently being tested200The moving average has stabilized and rebounded after consecutive declines, but the outlook for the exchange rate is bearish. Therefore, it is recommended to200Short on high above the moving average.
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　EUR/USD
Support 1.0950 1.0820 resistance 1.1060 1.1120
Yesterday, we indicated a bearish market and looked for opportunities to short. The euro's trend was quite heavy, and the resistance that did not approach us turned into a decline. It is expected to test again1.0950The support of the region. We lower the resistance level above,1.1030Yesterday's high point has become a new resistance, and above it is1.1060Finally, it is the previous important support level1.1120;The targets below are1.0950and1.0820。

Event discussion:

time	Indicator content	Previous value	Estimate	Announced value
17:00	eurozone8Construction industry output after adjusting monthly workdays(the annual rate)	+3.1%		Waiting
	eurozone8Construction industry output after rose adjustment(Monthly rate)	+1.8%		Waiting

Focus:Vantage FXWanzhi: China releases heavyweight data in Australian dollars/Overview of US dollar trends（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/16101902/）

　　

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The long position in the US dollar is quite impressive lately