叶雯熙：油价是涨是跌，带你全方位解读EIA

Wednesday(10month19day)crude oil盘初，油价延续涨势，震荡上行。美油交投于51dollar/Near the barrel, the increase is approximately1%；APILarge reduction in crude oil inventory378.8万桶，缓解市场对原油供给过剩的忧虑情绪。OPEC秘书长巴尔金都讲话，再度增强市场对OPEC限产协议达成的乐观预期，美元走软也在一定程度上支撑油价。周三晚间即将公布的EIA原油库存报告，料再掀市场风雨。关注叶雯熙公众号指导微信ywx5252.
　　
　　OPEC秘书长巴尔金都周二发表讲话称，一切冻产先决条件都将具备，冻产协议可能维持6Months to1年。此番讲话令市场对OPEC限产协议达成的预期再度升温。周三凌晨公布的API原油库存和库存库存录得大幅下降，提振油价。但利比亚瓦哈油田恢复生产，或令油价涨幅受限。
　　
　　从供需基本面看，American Petroleum Institute(API)According to data released on Wednesday, the United States10month14Day and WeekAPIUnexpected decrease in crude oil inventory378.8Ten thousand barrels, expected to increase241.7Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is an increase268.9万桶；APIIncrease in gasoline inventory92.9Ten thousand barrels, expected to decrease129.2Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is an increase68.8万桶；API精炼油库存大减231.9Ten thousand barrels, expected to decrease125Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is a decrease451.7万桶；API库欣地区原油库存大减195.5Ten thousand barrels, expected to decrease135.2Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is a decrease135.2Ten thousand barrels.
　　
　　叶雯熙认为虽然汽油库存小幅增长，但精炼油大幅下降，此外库欣地区原油库存录得2014year2The largest decline in the past month has led to a significant decline in the10month14Day and WeekAPIUnexpected decrease in crude oil inventory400万桶，表明炼厂产能有所下降；数据公布后，美油布油双双上涨，美油曾一度涨逾1.5%Oil distribution breakthrough52dollar/Bucket.
　　
　　OPEC9月产量已增至334010000 barrels/日，意味着减产40-9010000 barrels/日才能达到3250-330010000 barrels/日的目标，再加上二手数据的误差值（伊拉克、伊朗和委内瑞拉都表示其产量高于OPEC数据），整个OPEC的产量差值或达10010000 barrels/日，最终需要减产20010000 barrels/日以达成目标。
　　
　　从地缘关系方面看，据路透援引利比亚高级石油官员报道，瓦哈(Waha)油田上周恢复生产，促使利比亚原油产量达到5810000 barrels/Day. The Waha oilfield has always beenEsSiderOne of the main sources of supply for oil ports isEsSider油港首个恢复生产的油田。而目前由于储量限制问题，瓦哈油田生产的原油将转移至RasLanufOil Port. Libya's largest oil portEsSider多年来一直遭遇断断续续的封锁，导致国家产量受创。
　　
　　从市场联动性方面看，According to data released on Tuesday, the United States9Monthly CoreCPIData continuity11Months higher than the Federal Reserve2%The target, but inferior to the previous value, the US dollar index eventually fell in trading volatility. In addition, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve remain severe, with the US dollar index hitting7个月高位之后跟随美债收益率走低。美元涨势受阻为油价上行提供有效支撑  。                                                                                                                                      
　　From market expectations,全球顶级石油交易商维多公司首席执行长IanTaylor在伦敦的行业会议上称，11month30日的会议上预计会得到一些结果，不确定结果是否好到能够在短期内使得油市实现重大再平衡。预计2016年布伦特原油价格为54.99dollar/Bucket.OPEC需要真心诚意的减产以提振油价。
　　
　　综合来看，公众号叶雯熙认为原油价格多头势力强大，短线上涨空间较足，预计后市将震荡上行。北京时间22:30，将公布美国10month14Day and WeekEIA原油库存报告，投资者需密切关注。指导微信ywx5252.