Yunhui International NetworkMarket Briefing—2016/10/17

Market Briefing—2016/10/17

New York Foreign Exchange - US dollar index up this week1.3% Best performance in seven months per week

《REUTERS》Reported that the US dollar index rose this Friday 0.49%The best performance in seven months in a single week.

2016 Retail sales growth in the United States in September 0.6%Slightly underperformed market expectations 0.7%But progress compared to August. The producer price index has increased during the same period 0.3%Growth compared to the same period last year 0.7%Annual performance creation 2014 year 12 Best record since the month.

The US dollar index rose this week 1.39% collect 98.00 Point. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen stated at a luncheon meeting in Boston this Friday that they may need to take "high-pressure economic measures" to reverse the trend 2008 to 2009 The damage caused by the financial crisis during the years.

Yellen did not directly discuss the direction of monetary policy, only stating that the growth space of the US economy is shrinking and may require radical measures to rebuild the economy. If policies can be taken to further reduce unemployment and increase consumption, even if there is a risk of excessive inflation, corporate confidence may still improve, starting to invest and bringing more employment.

Double Line Capital CEO Gonlac stated that he interpreted Yellen's statement as' there is no need for inflation to exceed ' 2% Just tighten monetary policy, if the Federal Reserve thinks (Rising inflation) It is temporary, and the inflation rate can reach 3%。」

USD Index Rising 0.49%, enclosed in 98.00 Points.

The exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen has arrived 1 USD exchange 104.18 Japanese yen.

The exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar has arrived 1 Euro exchange 1.0967 USD.

The exchange rate between the pound and the US dollar has arrived 1 Sterling exchange 1.2189 USD.

The exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the US dollar has arrived 1 Australian dollar exchange 0.7611 USD.

After the US Stock Market - Officials' Talks Bank Quarterly Report Supporting the mild closing of the stock market But it still fell this week

US stock market closed higher on Friday as investors digested the Federal Reserve (Fed) The official's conversation also reflected strong bank financial reports and US economic data. The Dow Jones rose sharply in the morning, exceeding 160 Point, but then reduce the increase.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher 39.44 Point or 0.22% to 18138.38。

S&amp 500 Index closed higher 0.43 Point or 0.02% to 2132.98。

Nasdaq Index closed higher 0.83 Point or 0.02% to 5214.16。

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed higher 6.34 Point or 0.79% to 809.39。

Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen stated in Boston on Friday that addressing the negative impact of the economic recession may require "high-pressure" policies and a tense labor market. The economic crisis may cause permanent damage to economic output, forcing decision-makers to take more aggressive and rapid action in future economic downturns.

Yellen said that maintaining loose policies for too long may come at a cost, including financial stability and inflation; The relationship between the labor market and inflation seems to be weakening; Ultra loose policies may be needed in economic recovery.

An analyst said, 'I think the market may interpret it as Fed to 12 There will not be a monthly interest rate hike, but the rate hike may increase in the future

Boston Fed President Eric-Rosengren(Eric Rosengren)He stated that his views have not changed, but the economic situation has changed. He said interest rates should rise as the economy is approaching full employment and inflation is heading towards 2% Goal. The Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates in a more aggressive manner than currently expected this year.

In terms of economic news, the United States announced 9 Monthly retail sales increase 0.6%, in line with expectations.9 Monthly Consumer Price Index Rise 0.3%。

U.S.A 8 Monthly increase in enterprise inventory 0.2%. Due to concerns about the US presidential election,10 The monthly consumer confidence index has decreased to 87.9, estimated to be 92。

JPMorgan Chase Bank, Wells Fargo Bank, and Citigroup all released better than expected financial reports, driving financial stocks higher.

Analysts say that the stock market has shifted from being driven by the central bank to being driven by financial reports. At the beginning of the financial reporting season, it performed well. Until Friday morning,S&amp 500 In the enterprise, there are already 34 The family has released its financial report,79% Better than expected.

Analysts say that the financial report shows that economic growth has not slowed down, which is bullish news. The bad news is that the market has responded and may have reflected higher economic growth. The focus of the third quarter financial report is not only on the third quarter financial report, but also on the fourth quarter financial forecast.

Analysts say the market is happy to see little change in the government, and if Hillary enters the White House and the Republican Party dominates the House, it will be beneficial for the stock market.

Investors have recently carefully evaluated US economic data and analyzed the Federal Reserve (Fed) The possibility of raising interest rates later this year. according to CME Exchange based Fed Watch Display,12 The probability of monthly interest rate hikes exceeds 60%。

JPMorgan Chase(JPM)Stock price rise1.3%. The company announced a net profit of62.9100 million US dollars, equivalent to earnings per share1.58USD, which is higher than market expectations19Cents. Quarterly revenue255.1100 million US dollars, year-on-year increase8.4%Higher than market expectations15.2USD100mn

Citigroup(C)The stock price has risen, and the company's revenue in the third quarter has decreased, but it is still better than market expectations. The company is profitable38.4100 million US dollars, equivalent to earnings per share1.24USD. Profit for the same period last year42.9100 million US dollars, equivalent to earnings per share1.35USD. Market average expected earnings per share of the company1.16USD. Revenue from the same period last year186.9$100 million decrease to177.6USD100mn

Wells Fargo Bank, deeply embroiled in the scandal of fake account opening(WFC)Slightly climb. The company's third-quarter profit declined year-on-year, but it still exceeded market expectations. The bank's net profit for the quarter increased from the same period last year58100 million US dollars, equivalent to per share1.05USD, down to56.4100 million US dollars, equivalent to per share1.03The US dollar is higher than the average expectation of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters1.01USD. Revenue from the same period last year221.6Increase to 100 million US dollars223.3Billion US dollars, higher than analysts' average expectations222.1USD100mn

In terms of declining stocks, HP(HPQ)fall2.1%Previously, the company issued a warning signal and announced that it would lay off employees3000to4000People.

In other market scenarios, European stock markets closed higher while Asian markets generally rose.

After energy consumption - lightcrude oilSlight decline in income50.35dollar The number of American drilling wells continues to rise

《REUTERS》Reported that international crude oil prices closed slightly lower, with gains this week 1.1%。

Light crude oil will end up at per barrel 50 Above the US dollar, holding on to this week's gains, Brent crude oil reached every barrel in the market 52.55 The US dollar's final gains have converged. Energy Information Company Baker HughesThe report indicates an increase in the number of oil wells drilled in the United States last week 4 Seat, past 16 Mid week 15 As the week increases, the overall number of oil wells drilled has arrived 432 Seat, still lower than the same period last year 595 Seat.

Analysts at Commerzbank AG point out that crude oil inventories have increased by nearly 5 Looking at millions of barrels, the fundamentals of the oil market are still quite weak. Oil prices have risen driven by speculation and optimistic outlook, and supply has not actually decreased.

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC Call on global oil producing countries to join the ranks of reducing production, but currently OPEC Crude oil production remains at an all-time high, and preliminary agreement details are unclear. BNP Paribas reported that they believe that even if OPEC Can really reduce production, with daily production not exceeding 3250 The target of 10000 barrels of crude oil may not be enough to reduce global crude oil inventories.

11 Monthly US light crude oilfuturesfall 9 cent Collect each barrel 50.35 USD.

12 Monthly Brent crude oil futures fell 6 Cents per barrel 51.97 USD.

Gasoline prices have risen in recent months1Cents, or 0.80%To per gallon 1.494USD.

The decline of hot fuel in recent months1Cents, or 0.78%To per gallon 1.567 USD.

Natural gas has declined in recent months6Cents, or 1.68%To every million Btu3.285USD.

Precious Metals After Market - USD Upward goldReduce2.10dollar But this week there was a slight increase

Gold futures closed lower on Friday, with US retail sales rising and the US dollar rising, creating a bearish outlook for the gold market. But this week it rose, marking the first weekly increase in three weeks.

Over the past two weeks, gold has fallen, with a decline of approximately 5%, the largest weekly decline in over three years.

New York 12 Monthly gold decline 2.10 USD, or 0.2%, closing per ounce 1255.50 USD. Gold rose about this week 0.3%。

Analysts say that the outlook for gold is an upward trend. Federal Reserve (Fed) express 12 The month will see pigeon pie raise interest rates, and the real interest rate is also beneficial for bullish gold.

On Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.5%Precious metals are under pressure. This week, the US dollar index is about to rise 1.4%。

Analysts say that while the US dollar has risen, gold has continued to rise this week.ETF Strong display 2016 In, fund managers bought gold again.

Announced by the United States 9 Retail sales rebounded in the month, causing the US dollar to rise.

But the University of Michigan announced that,10 The initial value of the monthly consumer confidence index has decreased, and concerns about the US presidential election are beginning to bring pressure.

The Federal Reserve has been tracking economic data to determine the timing of the next interest rate hike. Friday, Boston Fed Bank President Rosengreen said that the central bank's interest rate hike may have to be more aggressive than expected.

Raising interest rates can push up the US dollar and weaken demand for commodities denominated in US dollars, including gold and silver.

In Friday's speech,Fed Chairman Yellen said that a stance of loose interest rates may have more drawbacks than benefits, as it increases the risk of financial instability or affects price stability.

Announced on Wednesday Fed 9 According to the minutes of the monthly meeting, several committee members stated that raising interest rates may soon be necessary, but the committee's decision awaits further evidence that the economy is continuing to move towards full employment and inflation is accelerating.

next time Fed The meeting is scheduled for 11 month 1 Solstice 2 It is expected to be held on the day of, and there is not much chance of raising interest rates. According to federal fund futures,Fed to 12 The probability of interest rate hikes at monthly meetings exceeds 60%。

In terms of other metal trading,

12 Monthly silver decline 1.7 Cents, or 0.1%To per ounce 17.441 USD, up approximately this week 0.4%。

1 Monthly Platinum Rise 6.60 USD, or 0.7%To per ounce 939.50 The US dollar fell this week 2.4%。

12 Monthly palladium increase 11.45 USD, or 1.8%To per ounce 648.30 The US dollar has fallen by approximately 2.9%。

12 Monthly copper decline 1.2 Cents, or 0.5%To per pound 2.111 USD, closing lower this week 2.5%。

European Stocks After Market - Pan European Rise1.29%collect339.95spot Man GroupSoaring14%

《REUTERS》Reported that European stock markets ended up rising overall, with banks and mining stocks driving the market higher.

Pan-European Stoxx 600 Final Rise 1.29%This week's increase 0.09%, down from the high point at the beginning of the year 7%. Deutsche Bank (DB-US) Near intraday rise 2%However, it was ultimately reported that if the bank were to issue new shares, the German government would not support the impact and the gains would converge.

UK Hedge Fund Man Group 2016 The scale of asset management increased significantly in the third quarter of the year, approaching 17 $100 million, the company also announced that it will repurchase shares and acquire an investment management company AaltoThe news has driven the stock price up sharply 14%。

Germany Software AG 2016 The third quarter of the year's pre tax profit was significantly reduced due to the decline of the database business and the impact of US legal litigation reserves 25% come 5010 Ten thousand euros, with revenue also declining during the same period 8% come 1.983 Billion euros, stock price plummeted on Friday 8.7%。

Pan-European Stoxx 600 Index rise 1.29%, enclosed in 339.95 Points.

britain FTSErise 35.81 Point, or 0.51%, enclosed in 7013.55 Points.

Germany DAX rise 166.31 Point, or 1.60%, enclosed in 10580.38 Points.

France CAC 40rise 65.75 Point, or 1.49%, enclosed in 4470.92 Points.

U.S.A9Monthly retail sales increase0.6% Estimated to rise0.7%

U.S.A 9 Monthly retail sales increase 0.6%This is the first increase in five months.

accept Market Watch The average estimate of analysts surveyed,9 Monthly retail sales are on the rise 0.7%。

9 Monthly car sales increase 1.1%。

9 Monthly gasoline sales increase 2.4%Reflecting the increase in gasoline prices.

Excluding cars and gasoline,9 Monthly retail sales increase 0.3%。

Online retailers 9 Monthly sales increase, but department store sales decrease 0.7%。

U.S.A 8 Monthly retail sales decreased by 0.3% Corrected to decrease 0.2%。

U.S.A9Monthly Producer Price Index Rise0.3% Estimated to rise0.2%

U.S.A 9 The monthly producer price index has risen again. Wholesale inflation has risen, but it is still considered low.

The US government announced on Friday that,9 Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) rise 0.3%。

accept Market Watch The average estimate of analysts surveyed,9 Monthly Producer Price Index Rise 0.2%。

9 The monthly increase in producer price index is due to the increase in various fuel costs, including gasoline.9 Monthly energy prices rise 2.5%。

Excluding energy, food, and trade,9 Monthly increase in core producer price index 0.3%。

9 Monthly Core PPI Up from the same period last year 1.5%, creating 2014 The largest increase since the end of the year.

Although inflation in the United States remains low, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Officials are still closely monitoring to decide whether to raise interest rates.

Some analysts say that inflation is accelerating, but others believe that price pressure may still be low for some time to come.

The presidential election is uncertain U.S.A10The monthly consumer confidence index has decreased to87.9 create13Month low point

The University of Michigan announced on Friday that concerns about the presidential election are beginning to put pressure, leading to a decline in the US consumer confidence index.

U.S.A 10 The initial value of the monthly consumer confidence index has decreased to 87.9, creating 13 Month low. Analysts estimate that 92.0。9 The monthly consumer confidence index is 91.2。

10 The monthly consumer expectation index has decreased to 76.6, reaching a two-year low with income below 7.5 Families with ten thousand dollars experienced the largest decline.

10 The monthly status index has risen to 105.5，9 Month is 104.2。

The survey leader of this index Richard Curtin The uncertainty of the presidential election may have had a negative impact, especially on consumers with lower incomes. Without this uncertainty, the confidence index may not have weakened

10 The monthly long-term inflation expectation index has dropped to a record low.

The failure of negative interest rates: soaring household savings rates in the eurozone5New Year High

European Central Bank (ECB) since 2014 It has been over two years since the announcement of the implementation of the negative interest rate policy in June of that year, and even ECB Even more so this year 3 month 10 Expand negative interest rates for the fourth time in the future. And what is the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's negative interest rate policy? Let's take a look back at the European Central Bank's implementation of negative interest rates for over two years now.

General investors often hear of the "negative interest rate" of the European Central Bank, which specifically refers to the overnight deposit instrument interest rate of the European Central Bank (Deposit Facility, DF)The current overnight deposit rate of the European Central Bank is -0.40%。

Whether it is the "negative interest rate" policy of the European Central Bank, or the central bank of Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, etc., the main intention is to further drive out funds parked in the banking system, in order to stimulate the willingness of these funds to enter the real economy for investment.

《Zerohedge》It is reported that in fact, the central banks of Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark have been lowering deposit rates for several years. The central banks of Sweden and Denmark have respectively 2008 Year2011 Year2014 Starting from the beginning of the year, the deposit interest rate has been gradually lowered.

by 2015 Until now, as long as the deposit rates of the central banks of Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are lowered, the country's total savings rate will increase, indicating that market funds are completely not guided by the central bank's interest rate policy, and instead, funds are more deposited into the banking system.

The current negative interest rate level of the European Central Bank is at its lowest in history -0.40%But as of 2016 As of the second quarter of this year, the total savings rate of households in the eurozone has further climbed to 12.8%Created from 2011 The new high since the third quarter of this year shows that after the European Central Bank continues to expand negative interest rates, households in the eurozone are even more hesitant to consume, leading to a new five-year high in household savings rates.

Bank of America (BofA) In a research report, it was stated that from the perspectives of Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark, due to their low inflation rates, these central banks hope to achieve the effect of boosting inflation by lowering deposit rates. But currently, it seems that these measures of lowering interest rates have not actually pushed up inflation, and will further lower it.

And this phenomenon was previously observed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Analysis has also been conducted, and the Bank for International Settlements believes that in an environment of ultra-low or even negative interest rates, market funds are less willing to leave the banking system mainly because the central bank implements ultra-low and negative interest rate policies. This policy intention is to convey to the market that the country's economic prospects are quite weak.

In an environment of increasing economic uncertainty, major banks are naturally hesitant to lend easily, and business owners are also hesitant to borrow and invest from banks. They even raise salaries for employees, while families are hesitant to consume freely despite stagnant salary growth, and have deposited their funds in the banking system.

Next weekECBMeeting! Having no debt to buyECBWill potentially changeQEDirection?

According to Reuters, next Thursday (20 day) European Central Bank (ECB) There will be another interest rate decision-making meeting, economists estimate, next week's ECB It is estimated that the current situation will continue to be maintained QE The scale of easing and interest rates remain unchanged, but it is estimated that the European Central Bank will take action to adjust the direction of monetary policy implementation before the end of this year due to the still weak economic outlook in the eurozone.

Since the announcement of the European Central Bank QE Since the beginning of the policy, the bank has spent hundreds of billions of euros to purchase bonds from the market, and has also adjusted the benchmark interest rate: the refinancing rate (REFI) lower 0.00%At the same time, the central bank's overnight deposit rate has been lowered to -0.40%The purpose of all these policies is to hope to boost the inflation prospects of the eurozone.

Executed by the European Central Bank QE After many years of policy, the latest inflation rate of the European Central Bank in September is only 0.4%, away from 2% The inflation targets are still far apart. Therefore, some economists believe that in an environment where inflation prospects continue to be unable to boost, the European Central Bank's monetary policy may begin to fine-tune some technical parameters.

Bavarian Bank, Germany (BayernLB) Chief Analyst, Economic Research Department Johannes Mayr To be honest, the factors that have a negative impact on the eurozone cannot quietly disappear in the coming quarters, and it is estimated that the inflation rate in the eurozone will continue to be lower than 1%。

And the European Central Bank's QE The bond purchase term will expire in March next year,Johannes Mayr It is estimated that the European Central Bank will QE The bond purchase period will continue to be extended in the future

Johannes Mayr Furthermore, if the European Central Bank wants to further extend the bond purchase period, it is absolutely necessary to adjust the scope and policy of the European Central Bank's bond purchase, because the amount of treasury bond in the secondary market is too scarce, especially the German treasury bond with good credit rating.

German Chamber of Commerce and Industry: The pound's sharp decline exacerbates the impact of Brexit on Germany Export growth may fall below zero

《REUTERS》Reported by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry DIHK The Brexit referendum has already affected Germany's exports to the UK, and the pound (FXB-US) The exchange rate plummeted and hit 31 Since the beginning of the year, the new low has had a more severe negative impact.

DIHK high-rise Martin Wansleben To German media Welt Indicates that they have visited 5600 Brexit has already affected the German economy. Faced with the decline of the pound, German products in the UK will become more expensive, and our export growth rate to the UK will also drop below zero this year

DIHK Data shows that German companies have lost interest in investing in the UK Martin Wansleben Unless everyone clearly knows how the Brexit process in the UK will develop, "the UK will become a place that does not attract foreign investment

DIHK It was estimated in July this year 2016 Germany's exports to the UK will decrease in 1%Much lower than previously estimated growth 5%。

The depreciation of the pound exacerbates inflation risks The threat of stagflation may make it difficult for the Bank of England to wield its power

On the mixed reputation of mare sauce (Marmite)Bank of England Governor Carney may also be in the camp that dislikes it.

In order to prevent Brexit from affecting the economy, Carney and his colleagues have hinted that they are willing to loosen monetary policy again, but the pound fell to 30 The inflation risk brought by the annual low point is limiting their space to do so.

The prospect of sluggish economic growth and accelerated price increases threatens Carney's efforts to strike a balance between supporting the economy and preventing inflation from overheating. tesco (Tesco Plc) Due to a dispute with Unilever over pricing, the removal of British specialty marmalade from online stores, known as "either love it or hate it," is a microcosm of the threat of overheating inflation.

So far, the Bank of England has been relaxing its policies despite the risk of exceeding its inflation target, "said economist at JPMorgan Chase in London Allan Monks Represent. However, the current situation of rising bond yields, falling exchange rates, and rising market inflation expectations may make decision-makers more cautious

GBP from 6 Decline since the Brexit referendum in June 18%It has already had an impact on raw material prices: import costs have reached their highest increase in five years. Measuring Inflation Expectations in the UK 10 Annual breakeven inflation rate hit this month 2014 The highest level since the beginning of the year.

All of this could be reflected in the Bank of England 11 month 3 The latest outlook released during the announcement of policy decisions on the day. Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Jon Cunliffe Wednesday told lawmakers that this will be a "very important round of predictions".

We will handle all recent news, including the pound, "he said.