Crossing the Sea 2016year10month13day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month13day

Focus this week:
10month13day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly import price rate
U.S.A9月出口物价月率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits

10month14day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly federal budget
U.S.A9Monthly final demandPP
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A8Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A10月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值



Important economic data released today:        
18：00 Germany10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value55.9
18：00 britain10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value51.0
18：00 France10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value41.0
18：00 Italy10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value33.9
20：30 Canada8Monthly New Housing Price Index‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly import price rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value-0.2%
20：30 U.S.A9月出口物价月率‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value-0.8%
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(10month8Day and Week)‧forecast25.4ten thousand people‧Previous value24.9ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(10month8Day and Week)‧Previous value25.35ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(10month1Day and Week)‧Previous value205.8ten thousand people

10month14day (Friday)
02：00 U.S.A9Monthly federal budget‧forecast250Yiyi surplus‧Previous value1,070A deficit of one billion yuan



News of the Week

Tuesday/芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯称，美国12月如加息，不会感到意外
沙特能源部长乐观认为，下月OPEC会议或可达成全球限产协议
三星电子宣布将在全球停止销售和更换Galaxy Note7mobile phone

China9月以人民币计价出口同比下降5.6%
China9月以人民币计价进口同比增长2.2%
China9Monthly trade surplus2783.50RMB 100 million
China9Monthly trade surplus419.89USD100mn
China9月以美元计价出口同比下降10.0%，进口同比下降1.9%


10month12day
LondongoldMorning order price:1255.70
London gold afternoon fixing price:1256.50



Today's Introduction

美联储会议记录显示决策者更接近升息，但对通胀的疑虑犹存

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)Published9月货币政策会议记录显示，多位有投票权的委员认为，如果美国经济继续增强，应该会在“相对短的时间内”加息。 但会议记录还显示，美联储内部对升息时机的分歧还是很大。有17位决策者参加了9月政策会议，其中10位是有投票权的委员。无论是有投票权的委员，还是其它决策者都对升息前要等多久，以便让就业市场和通胀进一步改善有不同观点。会议记录公布后，美股小幅上涨，美国公债收益率缩减稍早升幅。



XAU London Gold - 金价三角破底

As shown in the technical chart, the gold price is currently relatively close to the resistance reference1264and1273USD, next level material is1289。不过，由于三角底部已为失守，或见金价仍有下滑风险。下方支持见于1245and1236USD, further estimated as1218USD.

London Gold10month13day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1245 – 1264
Resistance level:1273 – 1289
Support bit:1236 – 1218

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


环球官方黄金储备 ：
(Source:World Gold Council(WGC)， Updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Breaking the Triangle and Extending Weakness under Silver Prices

伦敦白银方面，在近两个月，整体银价波幅正逐步收窄，并形成一组三角型态，随着周初跌破，银价料维持弱势发展。下方延伸支撑预估为17.10as well as16.80USD, next level material is16The US dollar barrier. Upward resistance can be referenced17.80and18.10USD, reference for significant resistance18.70USD.

London Silver10month13day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.10 – 17.80
Resistance level:18.10 – 18.70
Support bit:16.80 – 16.30

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

知情消息人士透露，欧洲央行下周可能讨论对资产购买计划进行技术性调整，但可能要推迟到12We will make a decision again this month, and we will also decide on this plan at that time3月到期后是否继续实施。消息人士称折衷方案可能包括，对限制欧洲央行购债比例的规定暂时或部分放宽。此举有可能减少欧洲央行购买的德债数量，或导致与德国出现新的分歧。德国认为，欧洲央行在补贴高负债国家。

市场对美国联邦储备理事会(FED)Will be on12月加息的预期升温，以及美国公债收益率攀升，为美元带来支撑。美联储周三公布的9月会议记录显示，多位有投票权的委员认为，如果美国经济继续增强，应该会在“相对短的时间内”加息。

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range and entering the end region of the triangular pattern, it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market will be launched in the short term. The top of the triangle is located at1.1260At the bottom, see1.1140，欧元周五滑落至1.11水平，初步跌破了三角型态；此外，1.11Also250The balance moving average position is expected to see a wave of decline in the euro, which will further lead to1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal. The upper resistance is estimated to be50Balance moving average1.12Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Germany10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: Italy9monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly trade balance

Related news
France9monthHICP终值较前月下跌0.2%, up from the same period last year0.5%
Germany9月批发物价较前月上涨0.4%, down from the same period last year0.3%
Germany9monthCPI终值较前月上升0.1%, up from the same period last year0.7%
Germany9monthHICP终值较上年同期上升0.5%
Germany9monthHICP终值较前月持平

消息指欧洲央行下周或审议QE选项，但可能延至12月再做决定

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.1000 – 1.0900 – 1.0700



JPY yen - Policy Differences between the United States and Japan, Weak Development of the Japanese yen

了解日本央行想法的消息人士表示，日本央行可能在季度评估报告中略微下调下一财年的通胀预估，但由于央行上月刚刚重新调整了政策框架，故预计近期不会放宽政策。上述消息人士称，许多央行官员认为短时间内不必扩大刺激政策，包括在11month1日结束的两天政策会议上，除非日圆急涨危及到脆弱的经济复苏。

美元兑日圆周四脱离两个半月高位。中国公布的贸易数据意外疲弱，引发对该国经济的担忧。美元兑日圆一度跌至103.50水平，脱离早段触及的104.62的三个月高位。避险货币日圆在中国数据公布之后上涨。中国海关总署周四公布，以美元计价9月出口同比下降10%For this year2月来最低。进口同比下降1.9%，路透调查预估中值分别为下降3%And growth1%。中国贸易数据疲弱引发股市下滑，美债收益率也下跌，日圆因而获得提振。

In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen for several days, and the significant increase last Tuesday has even broken through the top of the triangular pattern formed in the past three months. After the pattern breaks through, it indicates that the exchange rate still has a tendency to further rise, and the target can be seen first105Gateway. In addition, at the beginning of this year, the high point reached6month24Daily low99.08Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%Rebound level107.70Expand to50%Then it is110.40. as for200Balance moving average108.10It can also serve as another basis for resistance. The closest supporting material is102.30, with significant support estimated at50Balance moving average101.80and100Pass, please pay attention9In the second half of the month, the exchange rate made repeated attempts, but remained stable100Therefore, it will be regarded as a key support level for the mid-term trend.

Focus:
Friday: Japan9monthCGPI‧Japan10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Related news
Tuesday/路透调查：大约70%的受访分析师预计日本央行将在1月会议或稍晚采取进一步刺激措施
Wednesday/审议委员原田泰称，下次利率检视会上没有必要放松政策

消息指日本央行下次会议料下调通胀率预测，或暂不放松政策

Japan8Monthly unadjusted current account surplus20,008Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.70 – 108.40 – 110.40
support 102.30 – 101.60 – 100.00



GBP pound - 脱欧疑虑英镑挫跌

彭博报导称，英国首相文翠珊已接受，她的英国退欧计划应由议会进行表决，该报导使英镑受益，一度涨见1.23上方。图表走势所见，英镑兑美元自本月初跌破1.30关口以后，持续处于下行走势。若计算由七月至今的双底型态，以8month16Daily low1.2872为颈线参考，双顶幅度570点，延伸下行目标为1.22To the extent that1.20关口。上方阻力预估在1.2500and1.2620The next level material is1.2830Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: UK9monthRICSPrice difference‧britain10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: UK8月建筑业产出

Related news
Tuesday/英镑贸易加权指数触及近八年低点74.0

BRC: UK9Monthly same store retail sales increased compared to the same period last year0.4%
BRC: UK9月零售支出较上年同期上升1.3%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2620 – 1.2800
support 1.2200 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
10month10day(one)Switzerland9Monthly unemployment rate
10month12day(three)Switzerland10monthZEWInvestor confidence index
10month14day(five)Switzerland9Monthly Producer/Import prices        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 跌破近期区间

澳元兑美元周四下跌，因数据显示中国出口急降引发了普遍的避险动作，政府标售76亿澳元债券吸引到创纪录海外需求的影响因而失色。澳元兑美元受中国数据影响下跌至三周半低位0.7506。此前中国数据显示9月以美元计价出口同比下降10%For this year2月来最低，进口同比下降1.9%。中国为澳洲首要贸易伙伴，铁矿石与煤则是澳洲的主要大宗商品。

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元前期陷于0.76-0.77美元的交投区间，但周四已开始见出现跌破，或见澳元开始有回跌压力，当前需视乎澳元能否扳回0.76这个区间底部。澳元兑美元较近阻力会先见于下降趋向线0.7710and0.7760水平；至于向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可回破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面；初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。下方支持关注目前处于0.7520Horizontal100天平均线，倘若跌破，预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380Horizontal.

Related news
Australia8月经季节调整的自住房屋融资较前月下滑3%，投资性房屋融资上升0.1%
NAB: Australia9月企业现况指数升至正8
NAB: Australia9月企业信心指数持稳在正6

Focus:
Friday: Australia10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7710 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7520 – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 降息预期抑制纽元

纽西兰近期公布的一系列乐观数据显示，该国是发达国家中增长最快的经济体之一，但由于通胀率仍远低于目标水平，纽西兰央行下月料将降息 。周四公布的数据显示，制造业活动扩张、消费者信心处于逾15个月高点、就业创造持续加快，且截止6month30日财年政府预算盈余超过10亿新西兰元，高于预测。连续第二次录得年度财政盈余，得益于经济强劲增长，带动核心税收收入增长38Billion New Zealand dollars.4-6月，纽西兰经济较上年同期增长3.6%，而且周四公布的数据显示，经济没有放缓迹象。不过，大多数经济学家预测，纽西兰央行在11month10日会降息至历史低点1.75%，以便推高通胀率。

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25天平均线，同时，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦见持续下滑，预示纽元仍存有下跌空间。向下预估会先试探0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6885To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7150and50Balance moving average0.7260Horizontal.

Related news
Tuesday/纽西兰央行重申打算放松政策，以刺激通胀

Focus:
Wednesday: New Zealand9Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
Thursday: New Zealand9Monthly Food Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7170 – 0.7260 – 0.7320
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 势反复

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month12day(three): Canada10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
10month13day(four): Canada8Monthly New Housing Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)