Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD10month13Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
AUD/美元日线图对均线系统形成反复穿越，中期的横盘震荡局面持续。从小时图走势来看，澳元/dollar10month10日至今一直以震荡下落格局运行，短线在下落过程中表现出反复性强、延续性差的运行特征，限制了短线跌势的进一步展开。短线下落过程中的阻力在0.7590。
AustraliaGCG：
　　澳币昨日小幅上涨后开始了下行整理，盘面上看汇价收线于0.76附近位置的压制而未能突破向上进而掉头走低并再次触及前期的低位0.7530。盘面上看，汇价破位0.7530后有望测试前期的低位0.7440。整体上我们依旧看空澳币的走势，日内依旧寻求0.76的空单位置，并观测0.7530Breakthrough situation.
　　牛汇：
Thursday(10month13day)亚市，澳元终究无法抵挡强势美元的重压，兑美元汇率刷新自9month19The lowest point in recent days has reached0.7522。
　　自打9month29日盘中上破0.77整数大关之后，澳元兑美元汇率便一路震荡下滑。美联储9月会议纪要公布后，市场对于美联储年底出手收紧银根的预期进一步强化。
　　不过，大宗商品近来走强，料将给澳元汇率送去些许暖意。周四的商品市场上，动力煤、焦煤和焦炭分别有2%-4%以上的疯狂涨幅。
　　高档压力位于日内开盘0.7562、20小时指数均线0.7566and100Hourly moving average0.7576. Low level support seen at intraday lows0.7522、200Daily moving average0.7511And the big difference with integers0.75。
　　NBFforex：
　　日内受中国贸易帐不佳影响，澳元/美元短线急跌20余点，最低触及0.7518, for9month19以来低点。
　　日线图上，澳元/美元破除上行趋势，进入宽幅震荡状态，目前汇价回落至100Near the daily moving average,MACDstay0轴附近，50Daily moving average100Daily moving average and200日均线持平运行，汇价短期趋势不明朗，若汇价跌破100日均线，料下行至0.7500、0.7477、0.7452。
　　1On the hourly chart, AUD/美元下行趋势明显，50H、100Hand200H均线均呈下行态势，MACD绿色动能柱放大，RSIstay33低位，汇价进一步下行可能性大，下看目标位0.7500、0.7477。
Dahua Bank:
AUD/美元：看平 如日线上收于0.7510下方将转而看空
　　澳元昨日一度跌至0.7550/0.7710横盘整理区间下端。基调有所恶化，但只有日线上收于0.7510下方才表明当前看平阶段转至看空。总之，未来一至两日澳元必须升穿并保持在0.7600上方，否则下行压力将继续增加。
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7530 0.7480 resistance 0.7610 0.7640 0.7675
　　在此前我们提到短期澳元下行走势有可能继续，下方的首个目标位为0.7530，不过在更下方0.7480的位置将遭遇较强的支撑，我们依然维持这一判断。从现在来看，美元的强势还在延续，澳元目前上方的阻力首先是0.7610的支撑阻力转化位，更上方则是0.7640.

Event discussion:

time	Indicator content	Previous value	Estimate	Announced value
04:30	Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in refined oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1007)	-127.2	-150.6	-451.7
	Last week in the United StatesAPIKuhin regioncrude oilInventory changes(10000 barrels)(to1007)	43.5		-135.2
	Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in gasoline inventory(10000 barrels)(to1007)	286.7	-157.6	+68.8
	Last week in the United StatesAPIChanges in crude oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1007)	-755.5	+28.6	+268.9
20:30	U.S.A9月出口物价指数(the annual rate)	-2.4%		Waiting
	U.S.A9月出口物价指数(Monthly rate)	-0.8%	+0.1%	Waiting
	U.S.A9Monthly Import Price Index(the annual rate)	-2.2%		Waiting
	U.S.A9Monthly Import Price Index(Monthly rate)	-0.2%	+0.2%	Waiting
20:30	Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to1008)	24.9	25.4	Waiting
	Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to1008)	25.35		Waiting
	Last week's quarterly survey in the United States followed up on the number of claims for unemployment benefits(to1001)	205.8		Waiting
22:30	Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in natural gas inventory(Billion cubic feet)(to1007)	+800		Waiting
23:00	Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in crude oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1007)	-297.6	+28.6	Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in refined oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1007)	-235.9	-150.6	Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in refined oil inventory(10000 barrels)(to1007)	88.3%	87.4%	Waiting
	Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in gasoline inventory(10000 barrels)(to1007)	22.2	-157.6	Waiting

Focus:Vantage FX万致：FOMC纪要公布，爆升息推进曾九死一生（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/16101302/）

　　

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