Crossing the Sea 2016year10month12day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month12day

Focus this week:
10month12day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A8monthJOLTS职位空缺数
U.S.A10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

10month13day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly import price rate
U.S.A9月出口物价月率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits

10month14day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly federal budget
U.S.A9Monthly final demandPP
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A8Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A10月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Switzerland10monthZEWInvestor confidence index‧Front value positive2.7
17：00 eurozone8Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value-1.1%
17：00 eurozone8Monthly industrial production annual rate‧forecast+1.1%‧Previous value-0.5%
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value542.2
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value2,380.1
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index‧Previous value222.5
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate‧Previous value3.62%
22：00 U.S.A8monthJOLTS职位空缺数‧forecast572.4Ten thousand‧Previous value587.1Ten thousand
23：00 U.S.A10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value56.60
23：00 Canada10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Previous value53.00



News of the Week

Tuesday/芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯称，美国12月如加息，不会感到意外
沙特能源部长乐观认为，下月OPEC会议或可达成全球限产协议
三星电子宣布将在全球停止销售和更换Galaxy Note7mobile phone



10month11day
LondongoldMorning order price:1256.40
London gold afternoon fixing price:1253.45



Today's Introduction

由于美联储最快将于今年升息的预期升温，美国利率futures市场走势反映出，12月前升息的机率约为75%，与过去几天的情况基本一致。美国民主党候选人希拉里领先共和党候选人特朗普的民调支持度扩大，亦提振美元。投资者静候美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三稍晚将公布的9月会议记录，以及周五的美国零售销售数据，从中寻找美联储有多接近升息的线索。

美国企业财报季黯淡开局打击美股；美元和美债收益率都触及数月高位，因对美联储12月加息预期升温。美股标准普尔500指数周二下挫1.2%，接近一个月低位，自6月以来首次跌破主要支撑位100日移动均线。美国铝业暴跌11.4%，因公司季度获利低于预期，且下调营收预估。全球公债收益率上升，亦打击投资者的风险情绪。



XAU London Gold - 金价三角破底

As shown in the technical chart, the gold price is currently relatively close to the resistance reference1266and1276USD, next level material is1291。不过，由于三角底部已为失守，或见金价仍有下滑风险。下方支持见于1244and1234USD, further estimated as1218USD.

London Gold10month12day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1244 – 1266
Resistance level:1276 – 1291
Support bit:1234 – 1218

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton


10Maturity date of monthly gold futures:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


环球官方黄金储备 ：
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Breaking the Triangle and Extending Weakness under Silver Prices

伦敦白银方面，在近两个月，整体银价波幅正逐步收窄，并形成一组三角型态，随着周初跌破，银价料维持弱势发展。下方延伸支撑预估为17.00as well as6.50USD, next level material is16The US dollar barrier. Upward resistance can be referenced18.00and18.50USD, reference for significant resistance18.70USD.

London Silver10month12day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.00 – 18.00
Resistance level:18.50 – 18.70
Support bit:16.50 – 16.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton
9month21Day - 11305.47ton
9month22Day - 11305.47ton
9month23Day - 11337.95ton
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range and entering the end region of the triangular pattern, it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market will be launched in the short term. The top of the triangle is located at1.1260At the bottom, see1.1140，欧元周五滑落至1.11水平，初步跌破了三角型态；此外，1.11Also250The balance moving average position is expected to see a wave of decline in the euro, which will further lead to1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal. The upper resistance is estimated to be50Balance moving average1.12Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: France9monthHICPFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly industrial production
Thursday: Germany9monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value‧Germany10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: Italy9monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly trade balance

Related news
France9monthHICP终值较前月下跌0.2%, up from the same period last year0.5%
Germany9月批发物价较前月上涨0.4%, down from the same period last year0.3%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.1000 – 1.0900 – 1.0700



JPY yen - 突破三角，短期弱势持续

日本央行的决策官员暗示，他们对于进一步放松政策有了更高的门坎，坚持他们扩大刺激的承诺但只是保护经济免受外部冲击影响。日本央行总裁黑田东彦周三在议会重申，必要时仍准备调降利率或扩大资产购买，但并没有直接提及快速实现通胀率目标的必要性。

In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen for several days, and the significant increase last Tuesday has even broken through the top of the triangular pattern formed in the past three months. After the pattern breaks through, it indicates that the exchange rate still has a tendency to further rise, and the target can be seen first105Gateway. In addition, at the beginning of this year, the high point reached6month24Daily low99.08Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%Rebound level107.70Expand to50%Then it is110.40. as for200Balance moving average108.40亦可作为另一阻力依据。支持位方面，原先的三角顶部102.30则为较近参考，较大支持预估在50Balance moving average101.70and100Pass, please pay attention9In the second half of the month, the exchange rate made repeated attempts, but remained stable100Therefore, it will be regarded as a key support level for the mid-term trend.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan9月银行放款余额年率‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks
Friday: Japan9monthCGPI‧Japan10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Related news
Tuesday/路透调查：大约70%的受访分析师预计日本央行将在1月会议或稍晚采取进一步刺激措施
Wednesday/审议委员原田泰称，下次利率检视会上没有必要放松政策

Japan8Monthly unadjusted current account surplus20,008Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.70 – 108.40 – 110.40
support 102.30 – 101.60 – 100.00



GBP pound - 脱欧疑虑英镑挫跌

彭博报导称，英国首相文翠珊 已接受，她的英国退欧计划应由议会进行表决，该报导使英镑受益，一度涨见1.23上方。图表走势所见，英镑兑美元自本月初跌破1.30关口以后，持续处于下行走势。若计算由七月至今的双底型态，以8month16Daily low1.2872为颈线参考，双顶幅度570点，延伸下行目标为1.22To the extent that1.20关口。上方阻力预估在1.2500and1.2620The next level material is1.2830Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: UK9monthRICSPrice difference‧britain10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: UK8月建筑业产出

Related news
Tuesday/英镑贸易加权指数触及近八年低点74.0

BRC: UK9Monthly same store retail sales increased compared to the same period last year0.4%
BRC: UK9月零售支出较上年同期上升1.3%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2620 – 1.2800
support 1.2200 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
10month10day(one)Switzerland9Monthly unemployment rate
10month12day(three)Switzerland10monthZEWInvestor confidence index
10month14day(five)Switzerland9Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 跌破近期区间

澳元周三从三个月低点上升，政府标售长债获得投资者的热烈买需，提振澳元，这也表明澳洲高收益资产需求旺盛。澳元兑美元涨至接近0.76水平。不过，澳洲政府标售2047年到期的新债，获得130亿澳元的超额认购，提振市场人气。这远超总计约20Billion-30亿澳元的认购预期。澳洲是为数不多的被标普和穆迪给予AAA债信评级的国家之一，已经发行4,430亿澳元的公债，其中约60%是被国际投资者持有。

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元前期陷于0.76-0.77美元的交投区间，但周四已开始见出现跌破，或见澳元开始有回跌压力，当前需视乎澳元能否扳回0.76这个区间底部。澳元兑美元较近阻力会先见于下降趋向线0.7710and0.7760水平；至于向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可回破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面；初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。下方支持关注目前处于0.7510Horizontal100天平均线，倘若跌破，预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380Horizontal.

Related news
Australia8月经季节调整的自住房屋融资较前月下滑3%，投资性房屋融资上升0.1%
NAB: Australia9月企业现况指数升至正8
NAB: Australia9月企业信心指数持稳在正6

Focus:
Friday: Australia10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7710 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7510 – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 央行官员发表鸽派讲话，纽元承压

技术走势而言，较近阻力见于0.7170and50Balance moving average0.7260，较大阻力预估在0.7320. Lower support0.71and0.70关口，下一级见于0.6950Horizontal.

Related news
Tuesday/纽西兰央行重申打算放松政策，以刺激通胀

Focus:
Wednesday: New Zealand9Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
Thursday: New Zealand9Monthly Food Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7170 – 0.7260 – 0.7320
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674，均是未有下破此区而出现显着回升；故此，目前需瞩目于此区可否继续守稳，若然失守，预估下延目标可至1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month12day(three): Canada10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
10month13day(four): Canada8Monthly New Housing Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)