Crossing the Sea 2016year9month30day

Crossing the Sea 2016year9month30day

Focus this week:
9month30day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly personal income rate‧支出月率
U.S.A8monthPCEprice index
U.S.A9Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A9月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值

10month1day(Saturday)
U.S.A8Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean

10month3day(Monday)
U.S.A9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A8Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A9monthISMManufacturing Index

10month4day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9monthISM-纽约商业活动指数

10month5day(Wednesday)
U.S.A9monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A9monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A8Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A8Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A9monthISMNon manufacturingPMI

10month6day(Thursday)
U.S.A9monthChallenger企业计划裁员岗位
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

10month7day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A9Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A9Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A8Monthly wholesale inventory‧销售月率修订

10month8day(Saturday)
U.S.A8Monthly Consumer Credit



Important economic data released today:        
17：00 eurozone9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.2%
17：00 eurozone8Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast10.0%‧Previous value10.1%
17：00 Italy9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧forecast2.0%‧Previous value-0.1%
17：00 Italy9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value-0.1%
17：00 Italy9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast-0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
17：00 Italy9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value-0.1%
18：00 Italy8Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value+0.5%
18：00 Italy8Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧Previous value-3.0%
20：30 Canada7Monthly Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.6%
20：30 Canada8月工业产品价格月率‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 Canada8月工业产品价格年率‧Previous value-1.3%
20：30 Canada8月原材料价格月率‧Previous value-2.7%
20：30 Canada8月原材料价格年率‧Previous value-5.7%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly actual personal expenditure rate‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly personal income rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：30 U.S.A8月经调整后的个人支出月率‧forecast++0.1%‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+1.6%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+0.8%
21：45 U.S.A9Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast52.0‧Previous value51.5
22：00 U.S.A9月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值‧forecast90.0‧Previous value89.8
22：00 U.S.A9月密西根大学现况指数终值‧forecast104.0‧Previous value103.5
22：00 U.S.A9月密西根大学预期指数终值‧forecast81.0‧Previous value81.1



News of the Week

美国国会通过融资法案，避免了政府关门
耶伦在众议院为联储监管角色辩护，提及调整压力测试方法
U.S.A8月新屋销售较前月骤降7.6%to60.910000 households
U.S.A9The monthly consumer confidence index is104.1, for2007year8The highest in the past month
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank9The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is negative8
U.S.A9monthMARKITService industryPMIThe initial value is51.9
U.S.A9monthMARKITcomprehensivePMIThe initial value is52.0
U.S.A8Revised monthly building permit annual rate to115.210000 households
U.S.A8月耐用品订单较前月持平
U.S.A8月商品贸易逆差初值为584USD100mn
中国财新9Monthly manufacturing industryPMISlightly rise to50.1
Season 2 in the United StatesGDP环比年率终值为成长1.4%



9month29day
LondongoldMorning order price:1320.85
London gold afternoon fixing price:1318.10



Today's Introduction

Season 2 in the United StatesGDP环比年率上修为增长1.4%；企业投资增加

美国第二季经济增长并未如之前所想的那么迟缓，因出口增长大于进口，而且企业增加投资，给经济前景带来希望迹象。但其它数据显示，美国8The monthly sales index of completed houses has declined2.4%, for1月以来最低。明尼亚波利斯联邦储备银行总裁卡什卡利称，由于通胀预期受控，且通胀本身亦低于美联储2%的目标，所以不急于升息。美联储理事鲍威尔称美国经济状况强健，但由于全球环境疲弱，联储可以继续在升息问题上保持耐心。堪萨斯城联邦储备银行总裁乔治称，已经是时候推进升息了，称即便加息，货币政策也依然宽松。



XAU London Gold - 金价三角区间争持

金价周四回吐稍早涨幅，因美元回升且产油国达成减产协议后全球股市上扬。Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) 周三同意小幅减产，为2008年以来的首次；面对越来越沉重的低油价压力，OPEC领袖沙特阿拉伯对劲敌伊朗的立场有所软化。

技术图表所见，目前较近阻力参考1331，上方的下降趋向线阻力位于1346，若然这一道历时三个多月的下降趋向线破位，则有望金价将见开展新一轮升势，延伸目标预估为1352and1378美元。下方支持见于三角底部1315，上日已见险守着此区；另一瞩目支撑则为100Balance moving average position1309，破位较大支撑则为1298and1271USD.

London Gold9month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1319 – 1331
Resistance level:1341 – 1352 – 1378
Support bit:1309 – 1298 – 1271

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton
9month9Day - 939.94ton
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year9month7day)

Global:32924.2ton (120.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1828.6ton (+5.3ton)
Russia(7)：1506.0ton (+7.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 三角争持

伦敦白银方面，在近两个月，整体银价波幅正逐步收窄，并形成一组三角型态，上方顶部目前位于19.95美元，下方底部见于18.91美元；同时，价位亦交迭于多组中短期平均线，意味着银价正处待变局面，倘若任何一方破位，将可望延伸一段单边行情。向上较近阻力可参考20.10and21.00美元，至于下方延伸支撑料为100Balance moving average position18.68as well as18.20USD, next level material is17.80。

London Silver9month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.60 – 19.60
Resistance level:20.10 – 21.00
Support bit:18.20 – 17.80

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton
9month9Day - 11281.84ton
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton
9month21Day - 11305.47ton
9month22Day - 11305.47ton
9month23Day - 11337.95ton
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

周四美股下跌约1%，德意志银行股价跌至纪录低位，此前有报导称，部分交易客户撤走了在德银账户中的多余现金并且调整头寸。德银危机的直接导火线是美国司法部对其高达140亿美元的罚款，因其抵押支持债券(MBS)的销售存在不当行为。

美国将在下周公布大量数据，这也增添了市场的不安。目前认为美联储在12月升息的可能性仍为50-50左右。需关注的数据包括周一公布的9Monthly manufacturing industryPMI、8月建筑业支出，周三的9Monthly non manufacturing industryPMIand8月工厂订单，以及周五的9Monthly non farm employment report.

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360区间内，并且已走入三角型态的末端区域，估计短期将会开展新一轮单边行情。上方注目于三角顶部1.1280，破位才可望欧元继续自七月来的反扑行情。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考。反之，若向下失守三角底部1.1140To the extent that250Balance moving average position1.11，将见欧元迎来一波下挫，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: France8Monthly consumer expenditure&#8231PI‧France9monthHICPinitial value‧Italy8Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone8Monthly unemployment rate‧Italy9monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value&#8231PI
10month3day(one): Italy9monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany9monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧意大利第二季公共赤字与GDPRatio‧eurozone9monthMarkit制造业采PMIFinal value
10month4day(two)：17：00 eurozone8monthPPI
10month5day(three): Italy9monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France9monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany9monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧eurozone9monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly retail sales
10month6day(four): Germany8Monthly industrial order rate
10month7day(five): Germany8Monthly industrial production rate‧France8Monthly budget balance‧流动帐‧industrial production ‧trade balance

Related news
Germany8Monthly import prices have decreased compared to the previous month0.2%, down from the same period last year2.6%
France9The monthly consumer confidence index remains stable at97
Germany10monthGFK消费者信心指数略降至10.0
Germany8Monthly basisILO标准计算的经季节调整就业人口增加1.4ten thousand people
Germany9An increase in unemployment due to seasonal adjustments during menstruation1,000Person to268ten thousand people
Germany9月经季节调整的失业率持平于6.1%
Germany9月未经季节调整的总失业人口降至260.8ten thousand people
Germany8月实质零售销售较上年同期跳增3.7%
Germany8月实质零售销售较前月下滑0.4%

意大利将在12month4日就宪法改革举行公投
欧洲央行总裁德拉吉称，经济失衡有“动摇”欧元区的风险
德意志银行称将自行解决美国140亿美元罚款，不会求助政府
欧洲央行总裁为负利率辩护，并敦促德国政府增加支出

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1280 – 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1160 – 1.1100 – 1.1000



JPY yen - 探试三角底部

日本央行总裁黑田东彦周五表示，央行的公债购买步伐可能会有所起伏，这取决于实现收益率曲线目标需要购买多少公债。黑田东彦在国会表示，日本央行内部正在讨论未来退出超宽松货币政策的策略。但他还称，过于匆忙地谈论具体退出方式可能困扰市场。日本央行上周将政策目标重点从印钞转移到利率，这是对其货币政策框架的大调整，一些市场参与者认为这为未来缩减大规模资产购买计划铺平道路。

Japan8月核心消费者物价指数较上年同期下滑，为连续第六个月下滑，在日本央行重设政策框架以更迅速达成2%通胀目标之际，该数据令其承受进一步宽松货币政策条件的压力。总务省公布的另一份数据显示，8Monthly household expenses decreased compared to the same period last year4.6%，大于分析师此前预期的2.5%下降幅度，突显示民间消费的疲弱。民间消费占了经济的60%左右。工业生产则让经济前景稍微亮丽一点。疲弱的消费数据可能意味着会引来央行的进一步审视。日本央行上周调整政策框架，从先前的每年80万亿日圆增加基础货币策略，改为瞄准短期和长期利率目标。这也突显出，日本首相安倍晋三领导的政府有必要接过担子，除了今年稍后将推出的28万亿日圆刺激计划，还要实施有力的经济增长计划和结构性改革。8Monthly National CoreCPIDecreased compared to the same period last year0.5%，降幅高于分析师预期的下降0.4%，齐平7Monthly recorded2013year3月来最大降幅。8月扣除食品和能源价格的核心-coreCPIIncrease compared to the same period last year0.2%, creating2013year9月来最低升幅。尽管日本央行大规模印钞计划已经实施了三年半，但家庭支出疲弱以及强劲的日圆压低进口成本，导致通胀率一直远低于2%的央行目标水准。就业市场收紧也未能帮助刺激通胀。在通胀微乎其微的环境下，许多企业担心固定成本上升，对加薪仍保持谨慎，因此家庭也难以对支出做好准备。8The monthly unemployment rate is3.1%，接近前月触及的21年低点。经济产业省的一份数据显示，8月工业产出增长1.5%，大大高于分析师此前预期的0.5%增幅。官员表示，这是得益于国内对计算机和汽车导航系统用液晶显示器的需求。

在德意志银行的疑虑导致全球股市下跌之际，通常被视为避险货币的日圆反弹；德意志银行面临美国就其抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)不当销售提出巨额罚款的压力。彭博报导称，有数家与德银进行衍生品清算交易的对冲基金已将部分多余现金提走并且调整头寸，显示交易对手对于和德银往来感到忧心。本季度日圆已上涨2.0%，料将录得连续第三季上扬，因投资者怀疑日本央行的刺激举措已达实质限制，压低日圆汇率的能力已然消失。不过目前美元仍一直支撑于100日圆上方，许多人视此一水平为重要心理关卡。外界揣测日本投资者可能在10month1日起新财年下半年敲进更多外国资产，短期内或将抑制日圆涨势。市场人士也提防日本当局可能企图放话压低日圆，即便他们认为当局在这个阶段不太可能进行干预。

技术走势而言，汇价正陷入一组大型三角的末端区域，上方顶部见于102.75，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average104.10To the extent that107.50水平。三角底部99.75则为关键支持参考，需慎防破位将驱使汇价进入新一轮下跌行情，下一级关注6月份守住的99To the extent that100Monthly average line96.80Horizontal.

Focus:
10month3day(one)：日本第三季央行制造业景气判断指数‧Non manufacturing business sentiment assessment index‧企业资本支出预估‧Japan9Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
10month4day(two): Japan9Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
10month6day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks
10month7day(five): Japan9monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan8Monthly overtime pay‧同时指标月率‧Leading indicator monthly rate

Related news
安倍晋三称，日本央行新政策架构将强化货币政策
黑田东彦称将寻求适当收益率曲线来达成物价目标
黑田东彦：购债规模可能会有起伏

Japan8Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year2.1%
Japan8月零售销售较前月萎缩1.1%，为三个月来首度下滑
Bank of Japan8月消费者物价较上年同期上涨0.4%
Japan8Monthly CoreCPI较上年同期减少0.5%
Japan8Monthly household expenses decreased compared to the same period last year4.6%
Japan8月工业生产较前月增加1.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 102.75* – 104.10 – 107.50
support 99.75* – 99.00 – 96.80



GBP pound - 美元维持走稳，关注联储决议

英镑兑美元维持于1.30下方区间挣扎，对英国央行未来数月可能进一步放宽政策的预期带来压力。英镑本季跌2.6%，为连续第五季下跌，且为1983-84年以来最长季度连跌纪录。英镑前景仍暗淡，因担心英国退欧将拖累英国经济步入衰退，并扩大其不断膨胀的经常帐赤字。英国的经常帐赤字在发达国家中已属最高行列。

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元在八月份处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，将视为目前重要支撑依据，在目前已见破位下，本周料英镑仍会继续探低，较大支持则会参考1.29To the extent that8Monthly low1.2863. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average1.3165and1.3250水平，下一级料为1.33。

Focus:
9month30day(five)：英国第二季GDP‧商业投资‧流动帐平衡
10month3day(one): UK9monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
10month4day(two): UK9monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
10month5day(three): UK9monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI
10month7day(five): UK9monthHalifaxHouse Price Index‧britain8Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Related news
NATIONWIDE: UK9Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.3%, up from the same period last year5.3%
britainGFK 9The monthly consumer confidence index rose to negative1, with an increase of2015year6The largest since the beginning of the month        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3165 – 1.3250 – 1.3300
support 1.2900 – 1.2863



CHF Swiss franc - 德银忧虑损及投资者风险胃纳

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
10month3day(one)Switzerland8Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland9Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
10month6day(four)Switzerland9monthCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 德银境况打击风险偏好，澳元走势承压

澳元走势艰难，因围绕德意志银行健康状况的担忧情绪打击全球市场风险偏好。德银股价大跌，主要归咎于围绕这家德国最大银行财务稳定性的忧虑。澳元兑美元周五一度跌破0.76水平。澳洲央行下周二将举行月度政策会议，外界认为其将维持利率在纪录低位1.5%unchanged.

图表走势分析，澳元兑美元上周企稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7490水平，倘若跌破，预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。较近阻力则会先见于下降趋向线0.7710and0.7760水平；至于向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可回破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面；初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。

Focus:
10month3day(one): Australia9monthAIGManufacturing Index
10month4day(two): Australia8Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit‧Australia9monthANZNewspaper job advertisement‧ANZOnline recruitment advertisement‧Australia10Monthly central bank interest rate decision
10month5day(three): Australia9monthAIGService Industry Index‧Australia8Monthly retail sales
10month6day(four): Australia8月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
10month7day(five): Australia9monthAIG建筑业指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7710 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7490* – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 减息预期打压纽元

纽元兑美元挣扎于0.72区间，全球避险心态带来压力。纽元在9月初时一度高见15Month high0.7485，如今回到9月伊始的水准。

技术走势而言，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.7740，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，至于较近阻力则会见于0.74及本月初未能突破的0.75水平。下方支撑预估50Balance moving average0.7230，过去两个月来汇价亦是稳守着50天线，故此，若果此趟失守，下试支撑料为0.7160and0.70Gateway.

Related news
央行称纽元升值及楼市失衡给金融稳定带来重大风险
New Zealand8月建筑许可经季节调整后较前月下降1.0%

Focus:
10month4day(two)New Zealand Season 3NZIERBusiness confidence index‧NZIERCapacity utilization rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7700 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7210 – 0.7160 – 0.7000



CAD Cad   - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Canada7monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada8月工业产品价格‧原材料价格‧
10month3day(one): Canada9monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
10month5day(three): Canada8Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import
10month6day(four): Canada8Monthly building permit rate
10month7day(five): Canada9Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

我一直以为山是水的故事，云是风的故事，你是我的故事，可是却不知道，我是不是你的故事