Zhang Huili: Interest rate hike reignites gold, cautious bearish view on gold, production restrictions achieve more oil pullback

Zhang Huilijin: Interest rate hikes reignitegoldBe cautious of short positions and achieve production restrictionscrude oilMultiple callbacks
　　
　　
　　因为本周美联储官员频繁发表讲话表明看好尽快加息，加上黄金需求后劲不足，使得黄金短期承压趋弱。周四维持低位震荡，白盘小幅走高，在1325Double top suppression formed on the front line, and the US stock market fell under the pressure of good data, reaching its lowest point1315On the front line, in terms of crude oil, due to OPEC's preliminary agreement to freeze production, and Wednesday'sAPIAnd crude oilEIAAnd gasolineEIAThe data are all positive news, boosting crude oil and allowing crude oil, which has been on a fundamental trend, to continue to rise. The intraday thinking is also a correction and adjustment of short-term indicators. Currently, the focus is on48.3-4Frontline suppression position, depending on the strength of the decline in operation.
　　
　　金九的结束是迎接银十的到来，进入十月美元加息问题将会重回市场关注焦点。上周，耶伦在9monthFOMCAt the press conference after the meeting, it was stated that the economy is not currently overheated,9The monthly meeting remains inactive to wait for more evidence of improved employment and inflation. If employment continues to improve and there are no major risks, it is expected that interest rates will be raised once this year. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen stated that there is no fixed timetable for the Fed to withdraw its loose monetary policy. Yellen said that at the current rate of job creation, the economy may overheat. If this situation occurs, the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates faster.
　　
　　OPECFor the first time in eight years, member states have reached a production restriction agreement, boosting oil prices to their highest point in nearly three weeks, with US gas stations on the rise46The US dollar threshold. But immediately after the agreement was reached, the problem arose: Iraq was dissatisfiedOPECWhen evaluating the production of member countries, using two sets of data is considered to underestimate their own output. The current oil production of each country is a key measure of the allocation of production reduction tasks. The higher the current production and the closer it is to its short-term production capacity limit, the more advantageous it is for individual member countries. And in the days leading up to the movable property agreement, the production of oil producing countries surprisingly surged, with Russia's crude oil production reaching a record high in the post Soviet era. Whether the practice of increasing production first and then freezing production can truly improve the supply-demand relationship remains to be further digested by the market.
　　
　　黄金：日图收出下影线，显示出短期在1318-1308Regional support is relatively concentrated, yesterday's support was in1315One area, and the area near this location also belongs to the radiation support zone. At the same time, as today approaches the end of the weekly and monthly lines, there are still many uncertain factors that exacerbate the volatility, and there is currently no obvious unilateral trend. This is conducive to the severe volatility of the monthly line at the end of the day, and the repeated upward and downward sweeping of the market will intensify. Pay attention to this risk and try to avoid it when you are unsure.4HcycleKThe line continues to run at the defensive moving averageMA10Below, and currentlyMA10andMA5The close distance indicates that the bearish momentum is gradually weakening. but in10Periodic moving average1322Frontline can still participate in short positions, the overall trend is still bearish, and the evening star of the daily chart is just the beginning. Recently, it has continuously hit low levels, so pay attention to the price of gold breaking through. At present, the key support lies in the mid track of the weekly chart1315Nearby. The watershed between long and short positions is at the bottom of the daily chart1308Nearby, if the position changes and breaks, the bears will accelerate further!
　　
Suggestions for spot gold operations:
　　
　　1Currently1320-1318Long on the front line, stop loss1315On the target1325-1327On the front line, breakthroughs can be seen1328-1330frontline;
　　
　　2Short term attention1325Nearby resistance, breakthrough is waiting1328-1330Short on the front line, stop loss1333Look at the target below1323-1320frontline;
　　
　　3It is advisable to watch more and exercise less on Friday. Wishing everyone a happy National Day in advance!
　　
　　原油方面：技术面上整体受制于横向收敛的布林通道夹裹，价格处在前期反弹区间内部，日线行情依然是较为反复的宽幅震荡走势;4On the hourly chart, the overall closing line appears irregularMThe first drop, the Bolin Channel opens downward, and the shape atmosphere is weak. However, the current price is supported by the shape of the neck line. At the same time, the deviation rate between the price and the average line is high after consecutive negative falls. Zhang Huilijin, the official account of Weixin, suggests paying attention to the need for upward correction in the short term within the day. In terms of operation, it is not enough to open low positions and light positions. On the contrary, it needs to further catch up with the short position when it breaks down.
　　
　　原油部分操作建议：
　　
　　1Step back below47.20-47.00Long on the front line, stop loss46.70On the target48.00-48.20frontline;
　　
　　2If there is a breakthrough above48.30Step back47.80-47.60Long on the front line, stop loss47.30On the target48.60-48.80frontline;
　　
　　3If it falls below46.60轻仓追空，止损47.00Look at the target below46.00-45.80frontline.
　　
Ninggui Asphalt Operation Suggestions:
　　
　　1Below4550Long, stop loss4500, look at the goal4620-4680
　　
　　2、4680-4700Short on the front line, stop loss4740, look at the goal4600
　　
Today's Key Financial Data and Events2016year9month30日周五
　　
　　14:00britain9monthNationwideMonthly rate of housing price index
　　14:45France9monthCPIMonthly rate
　　15:00Switzerland9monthKOFEconomic leading indicators
　　16:30英国第二季度经常帐、英国第二季度GDPAnnual rate final value
　　17:00eurozone8Monthly unemployment rate, Eurozone9monthCPIAnnual rate initial value
　　20:30Canada7monthGDPMonthly rate, USA8月个人支出月率、核心PCEMonthly and annual rates of price index
　　21:45U.S.A9Month ChicagoPMI
　　22:00U.S.A9Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month
The next day01:00From the United States to9month30Total number of oil drilling in the current week
　　
　   WeixinID：zhlj237 writing/张慧理金