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12month11日重要数据公布:

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12month11day (Tuesday)
13:00 Japan11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index•Previous value42.8
15:00 Germany11Monthly wholesale price index(WPI)Monthly rate•forecast+0.5%•Previous value+0.5%
15:00 Germany11Monthly wholesale price index(WPI)the annual rate•forecast+5.1%•Previous value+4.7%
17:30 britain10月贸易平衡,预测74A deficit of one billion yuan•Previous value77.54A deficit of one billion yuan
17:30 britain10月对非欧盟贸易平衡•forecast44.5A deficit of one billion yuan•Previous value47.11A deficit of one billion yuan
18:00 Germany12monthZEW经济预期指数,预测-34.0, Previous value-32.5
23:00 U.S.A10月批发存货•forecast+0.5%•Previous value+0.8%
23:00 U.S.A10Monthly wholesale sales•Previous value+1.3%

12month12day (Wednesday)
03:15 Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)议息会议公布
07:50 Japan10月贸易盈馀年率,前值59.8%
07:50 Japan11月入口物价年率,预测+7.6%•Previous value+7.5%
07:50 Japan11月出口物价年率,预测-1.9%, Previous value-0.1%
07:50 Japan11月流动账,预测20.6亿,前值28.8Billion
07:50 Japan11Monthly Enterprise Price Index(CGPI)Monthly rate•Previous value0.3%


12month10day
港金息率:低息 60 Hong Kong dollars
LondongoldMorning order price:800.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:809.50
London Silver Set Price:14.38
黄金伦敦收盘价(00:15):809.10 / 809.90
黄金纽约收盘价(03:15):808.00 / 808.70

NYMEX 2月期金:
开市价:806.50 - 收市价:813.00
Maximum: 817.50 - 最低: 806.50


周一公布美国10月成屋待完成销售量温和增长,出乎市场的普遍预期,但销售较上年同期降幅为纪录第三大,提醒人们房屋市场恶化程度有多严重。全美不动产协会(NAR)周一表示,其成屋待完成销售指数10Monthly rise0.6%to87.2,9月上修后为86.7。这个前瞻性的房屋销售指标要好于市场预测之下降1.0%。市场认为该数据强化了联储温和降息25个基点的可能性。不过,成屋待完成销售增长,还不足以让分析师增强对于房屋市场很快复苏的期望。成屋待完成销售同比下降18.4%, with a decrease of2001year1月该系列数据开始统计以来第三大;同比降幅最大的两次分别是在8Month and9Month.NAR首席分析师劳伦斯表示,房屋销售和价格继今年下跌后,明年应当会回稳。NAR称成屋销售年率明年应达到570万户,今年料为567万户;房价中值今年可能下降1.9%,但明年料增长0.3%to218,300USD.

美元兑多数主要货币周一连续第三个交易日下滑,市场普遍预期美国联邦储备理事会(FED)周二将降息,以避免经济陷入衰退。利率futures走势全面反映美联储将降息0.25%to4.25%,但更大幅度降息的机率则由一周前的二分之一降至五分之一,因一连串的经济数据较预期强劲。市场近期对联储大举降息的预期有所收敛,分析师指因对联储降息将足以避免金融市场动荡产生更严重后果的乐观情绪升温。美国政府上周发布限制可能的抵押贷款违约计划也令投资人抱持了经济成长放缓将受控的希望。市场人士大量押注美元贬值的部位亦已逐渐进行削减,数据显示,截至12month4日为止当周芝加哥国际货币市场(IMM)上的投机客缩减美元兑六种主要货币的净空头部位至250.2亿美元,前一周则为271亿。然而,若今晚美国联储措辞有任何软化,或被人推定其将对未来数据作出反应,都可能令美元有进一步走软之空间,因市场相信数据仍将疲弱。

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )
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