AUD : 上落争持格局 —(12month10day)

View All · Published on 2007-12-10 10:35:31

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Focus:
‧技术图表待变格局
‧重要支撑1.1350
‧周四瑞士央行议息

路透上周之调查显示，受访46位分析师中，有40位认为该央行在12month13日会议上，将维持三个月瑞郎伦敦银行间拆放款利率(LIBOR)区间在2.25-3.25%不变，中点仍在2.75%。另六位分析师则预计其将连续第九个季度升息，将区间中点上调25Bps to3%。整体上，受访分析师认为12月升息的机率在25%左右。央行总裁何斯已表示，央行立场是观望，因要评估次优危机对瑞士经济的影响。

波浪理论分析，瑞郎有机会刚开始运行大型上升浪的第(IV)浪内(C)Within the waves(1)伸延浪。瑞郎在2004year12月的高位1.1283完成大型的第(III)浪，并开始大型的第(IV)Waves. from1.1283to06year2month28Daily low1.3235为大型的第(IV)Within the waves(A)Waves,1.3235开始为大型的第(IV)Within the waves(B)浪，并以三角型运行。即由1.3235to06year5month5Daily high1.1919For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves(a)Waves,1.1919to06year10month13Daily low1.2769For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves(b)Waves,1.2769to06year12month5Daily high1.1878For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves(c)Waves, 1.1878to07year6month13Daily low1.2468For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves(d)Waves,1.2468to07year11month23日最高位1.0883For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves(e)浪，并结束大型第(IV)Within the waves(B)Waves, and1.0833至现在为大型第(IV)Within the waves(C)Within the waves(1)伸延浪。预料此第(1)伸延浪有机会在本星期进一步下跌至1.15或以下水平。

瑞郎走势方面，上周股市普遍回稳，表明投资者的经济疑虑有所缓解，风险偏好出现回升，瑞郎上周最低曾见至1.1350水平。预计当前有10天平均线为首要阻力，目前处于1.1190水平，倘若瑞郎可再而回破此区，则有望瑞郎应可再行回试上月高位，预计先遇阻力在1.0950，上月高位1.0896则仍为关键参考。反之，若1.1300/30区域终为明显失守，将使目前横行待变之RSIandSTC指标跟随转弱。若以gold比率计算，50%回调为1.14水平，至于扩展至61.8%You can see that1.1515水平。以保历加通道所见，较近之20日通道底部见于1.1490；另外，瑞郎于10月份曾遇阻力于1.16关口，至今亦可反观成关键支持参考。

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )