euro : 通道下方维持偏软 —(12month10day)

Focus:
‧周末回升未能回返上升通道
‧加息预期尚见支撑欧元
‧1.45关口为重要支撑

欧元兑美元上周最高一度触及1.4770水平，但周四由于英国央行减息打压英镑走势，拖累欧元滑落至最低1.4526，为近四周来之最低位，但在欧洲央行议息不变结果公布逆转市况走涨，至周五持续回涨至1.4670水平。市场预计ECB论调会略有软化，但事实并非如此。ECB总裁的言论较预期更为强硬，他淡化了经济成长的风险，而专注于通膨，这令许多市场人士感到意外。特里谢对通膨的强硬言论引发欧元区可能升息的臆测；另外，美国总统布殊宣布旨在放缓房主止赎，并抑制经济受次优抵押贷款危机冲击的计划后，美股大涨，投资人风险意愿改善，欧元也因此受到提振。布殊称预计将有120万房主可能从该援助计划中受益，得以在未来几年不必止赎。

波浪理论分析，欧元有机会运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)浪。欧元的大型第(V)wave05year11month15The low point of the day1.1640开始。由1.1640to06year1month25Daily high1.2323为大型上升第(V)Within the waves1Waves,1.2323to06year2month27Daily low1.1825For the large section(V)Within the waves2浪，至6month5Daily high1.2976For the large section(V)Within the waves3浪，至10month13Daily low1.2483For the large section(V)Within the waves4浪，至12month4Daily high1.3367For the large section(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(1)伸延浪，至07year1month12The low point of the day1.2864For the large section(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(2)伸延浪；而1.2864to4month27Daily high1.3681For the large section(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(3)伸延浪，至6month13Daily low1.3262For the large section(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(4)Stretching within the waves(a)浪，至7month24Daily high1.3851by (b)浪，至8month16Daily low1.3359by (c)浪，代表第(4)伸延浪在此完结。由1.3359to8month31Daily high1.3718For the large section(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves(i)伸延小浪，至9month4Daily low1.3550为第(ii)伸延小浪，至10month1Daily high1.4281为第(iii)伸延小浪，至10month9The low point of the day1.4014为第(iv)伸延小浪，至11month23Daily high1.4966为第(v)伸延小浪，代表整个大型第(V)浪顶在1.4966完结。而1.4966至现在有机会运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)浪，并有机会以伸延浪运行，预料本周此大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)浪将有机会下试1.44或以下水平。

其它技术分析方面，虽然欧元上周自1.4520低位后急速回升，但回升幅度暂未足以改变其破位下滑之趋势，周末尚见受压于5Balance moving average1.4670水平，及其周三下破之通道底部1.4690Horizontal, in addition10Balance moving average1.4720水平亦订为一重要阻力，估计欧元若可连破三关，方可确认欧元升势复现，之后较近上试目标则为1.48关口。但其它指标亦未见有颓势迹象，若周初仍未可上破5天平均线，则尚见欧元或再回试低位。预计欧元下试首个目标先为1.4520as well as1.4490水平，后者为欧元自10month9Daily low1.40水平升势之50%调整水平，延伸至61.8%调整水平将可见至1.4380。

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )