Crossing the Sea 2016year9month21day

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Crossing the Sea 2016year9month21day

Focus this week:
9month21day(Wednesday)
Federal Reserve Rate Resolution (late at night2spot)

9month22day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A7Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)房屋价格
U.S.A8Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A8Monthly leading indicator monthly rate

Important economic data released today:
20：30 Canada7Monthly wholesale trade rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.7%

9month22day (Thursday)
02：00 The Federal Reserve Announces Interest Rate Resolutions

News of the Week

U.S.A9monthNAHBThe housing market index is65

9month19day
LondongoldMorning order price:1315.05
London gold afternoon fixing price:1314.85

Today's Introduction

对于全球宏观风险而言，今日或许是格外是关键的一天，因为日本央行和美联储将会在日内先后公布利率决议。美联储即将于今晚深夜2时公布备受关注的货币政策决议，届时联储是否会加息成为眼下金融市场上的一大谜题。2Hour30主席耶伦出席记者会，此外，美联储还会公布最新的经济预期，以及位图。

美联储几位官员曾表示，强劲的就业数据是最早9月行动的理由。过去三个月美国平均每月新增非农就业岗位远超20万。但最近几周的经济数据显现疲弱迹象，其中包括美国供应管理协会(ISM)调查显示美国8月制造业新订单和工业生产下降，服务业活动指数也创六年半低点，这令市场普遍降低了美联储本周加息的预期。目前利率futures表明，美联储本周加息的概率已经自本月初时的34%Slide down to20%。此外，由于距离11month8日美国大选还不到两个月，为免卷入政治纷争之中，市场亦预期美联储可能要待至12月才会加息。不过，投资者亦需慎防出现「爆冷」赛果。除了两个空缺位置以外，目前10个具有投票权的美联储官员当中，鹰鸽两派对峙，两方各有五名「拥护者」，只要一票的变动可能已制造出意外结果。

在时点方面，在2008Year and2004年，美联储亦曾于大选前后的时间作出利率变动，08年金融海啸席卷全球，联储连番降息救市；04年，其时房市泡沫涌现，经历03年下半年经济强劲复苏后，需求快速上升拉动通胀和核心通胀抬头，逼使美联储04年开始收紧政策，连续17次分别加息25个基点，直至达到2006year6Of6.25%；当中四次的加息就是在大选前后的八月、九月、十一月及十二月。因此，尽管大选将至，亦未必会防碍联储官员作出加息决定，不管是在今晚的会议还是下次在十一月初的会议。

目前市场普遍预期美联储今晚不太可能宣布加息，但预计其很可能释放年内加息的信号，不过，即使出现这样的结果，但由于近期市场基本已作出消化，故这未必可为美元带来多少上涨动力，反而需防范「传言买入，事实卖出」，令美元对应近两周以来的涨势而作出修正调整。至于若美联储出现突袭，意外作出加息，则估计美元即市可能先呈跳涨，之后则可能要依据会后声明以及耶伦言论以判断年内会否仍有加息机会，从而再断定美元能否延续进一步涨势。

XAU London Gold - 金价继续承压，受制联储加息预期

金价周二持稳，Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)决策者开始了为期两日的会议，投资者押注会维持利率不变。投资者等待美联储发布的政策声明，随后美联储主席耶伦将举行记者会，投资者将关注年底前升息的线索。预料联储决策者还将下调利率预期，以反映出决策者对在产出、劳动生产率和物价增幅均慢于过去10年的情况下，经济需要多高利率的看法。根据CMEofFedWatch工具，市场消化的本周升息的可能性仅有12%Last week24%。

As seen in the technical chart, 7month6Daily high1374.91，8month2Daily high1367.33, to the extent that9month7月高位则在1352.65美元，明显可见，三个顶部正逐步下移，需慎防若此轮跌势失守1300美元关口，则见更大的下调压力，延伸跌幅料会看至1287and1266水平，为六月至七月累积升幅50%and61.8%的技术回调水平。另一方面，若金价仍可维持在1310上方，则金价仍可望继续持稳，上方阻力见于50Balance moving average1332，其后较大挑战来自位于1350美元的下降趋向线，破位延伸目标预估在1368Horizontal.

London Gold9month21day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1307 – 1322
Resistance level:1328 – 1341 – 1368
Support bit:1300 – 1288 – 1262

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton
9month9Day - 939.94ton
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton

10Maturity date of monthly gold futures:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year9month7day)

Global:32924.2ton (120.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1828.6ton (+5.3ton)
Russia(7)：1506.0ton (+7.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton

XAG London Silver - Repeated trends

伦敦白银方面，预料白银短期维持反复，阻力可参考19.50and19.80Further, we will see that20.20and207美元。至于下方支持预估在18.90and18.60The next level material is18.20and17.50USD.

London Silver9month21day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.90 – 19.50
Resistance level:19.80 – 20.20 – 20.70
Support bit:18.60 – 18.20 – 17.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton
9month2Day - 11184.37ton
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton
9month9Day - 11281.84ton
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton

EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

欧元兑美元走势，相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，预示欧元下跌压力弱化。短线走势仍要视乎250Balance moving average1.11水平能否守稳，若仍可再度守稳，才可望欧元继续自七月来的反扑行情。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考。反之，若向下失守250天线，将加剧欧元弱势，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09upper.

Focus:
Thursday: France9Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧eurozone9Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index

Related news
Germany8monthPPIDecline compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year1.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1160 – 1.1100 – 1.1000

JPY yen - 日本央行大幅调整货币政策，设置收益率曲线目标

日本央行周三大幅调整货币政策框架，将长期收益率目标加入到大规模的资产购买计划当中，并再次承诺将尽快达到2%的通胀率目标。日本央行还表示，在维持超宽松货币政策的同时，将允许通胀率超过目标水准，这等于强化了之前的承诺，即保持政策宽松直至通胀率达标并稳定在该水平。在周三结束的两日利率审议会议上，日本央行决定维持指标利率在负0.1%unchanged ，该利率适用于金融机构存放在央行的部分超额准备金。不过日本央行放弃了基础货币目标，改为采用“控制收益率曲线”，据此央行将买进长期公债以使得10年期公债收益率保持在当前的零水准附近。日本央行还称，将继续购买长期公债，保证公债持有规模每年增加80万亿日圆。日本央行在宣布政策决定的声明中表示，根据新的政策框架，央行若要再度放松政策，会进一步调降负利率，调低长期利率目标，或扩大基础货币。新政策框架在当前量化质化宽松(QQE)政策的基础上加入了“控制收益率曲线”的目标。声明称，日本央行将寻求通过控制短期和长期利率来降低实质利率，长短期利率可能作为新政策框架的核心。

技术走势而言，图表上可见到汇价正陷入一组大型三角的末端区域，上方顶部见于103.50，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average104.60To the extent that107.50水平。支持位则要留意101水平，三角底部99.75则为另一关键参考，需慎防破位将驱使汇价进入新一轮下跌行情，下一级关注6月份守住的99To the extent that100Monthly average line96.80Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Related news
日本央行维持利率水平在负0.1%unchanged
日本央行放弃基础货币目标，改为以长期利率为目标
日本央行承诺将10年期公债收益率维持在零附近
央行表示将允许通胀率超过2%
stayQQE的基础上，再引入收益率曲线目标

Japan8月出口同比下降9.6%
Japan8月进口下降17.3%
Japan8月贸易收支转为逆差187Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 103.50* – 104.60 – 107.50
support 101.00 – 99.75 – 99.00 – 96.80

GBP pound - 美元维持走稳，关注联储决议

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元在八月份处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，将视为目前重要支撑依据，在上周尚见险守着，但本周料英镑仍会继续探低，较大支持则会参考1.29To the extent that8Monthly low1.2863. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average1.3165and1.3250水平，下一级料为1.33。

Focus:
Wednesday: UK8Monthly net borrowing from public sector(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)
Thursday: UK9monthCBITotal industrial order difference

Related news
新任央行委员桑德斯：英国经济将会放缓，但程度小于预期

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3165 – 1.3250 – 1.3300
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2900 – 1.2863

CHF Swiss franc - 守稳0.95brace

美元兑瑞郎上周处于区间横盘，央行利率不变的决议，未有为汇价带来重大冲击。图表指针所见，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数自超卖区域回升，预料汇价仍见进一步上升的动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
Switzerland8The monthly trade surplus has expanded to30.25Billion Swiss francs

The Swiss government expects2016yearGDPThe increase is1.5%(此前预计为1.4%)
The Swiss government expects2017yearGDPThe increase is1.8%(此前预计为1.8%)
The Swiss government expects2016年通胀率为负0.4%(此前预计为负0.4%)
The Swiss government expects2017The annual inflation rate is0.3%(此前预计为0.3%)

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440

AUD AUD - hold100MAbrace

图表走势分析，澳元上周持稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7480水平。预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。较近阻力先见于0.7570and0.7760；0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。

Related news
会议记录：利率前景呈现平稳，因经济平缓前行

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7570 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7480* – 0.7450 – 0.7380

NZD New Zealand dollars - Avoidance sentiment suppresses the New Zealand dollar

纽西兰出口的主要乳制品--全脂奶粉价格本月触及一年高位，因全球供应过剩局面显露缓解迹象。不过，牛奶价格反弹却助力纽元上冲，这就加重了纽西兰央行将指针利率从当前2.0%纪录低位进一步调低的压力。今年已降息两次的纽西兰央行已经多次表示，需要纽元贬值来支撑该国出口导向型经济。事实上，在8月份的利率会议上，该央行表示降息25One basis point to record low2.0%，是因为“需要有更多的货币政策刺激举措来促使本币贬值”。相对于日本、欧洲和美国的负利率或者超低利率，纽西兰的政策利率颇具吸引力，正因为如此，纽元今年以来一直获得支撑。纽元兑美元较上年同期上涨17%about.

纽西兰央行周四举行政策会议，料将维持利率在2.0%不变。技术走势而言，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.77，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，进一步可参考250Weekly moving average0.7750To the extent that0.78关口；较近阻力可参考月初未能突破的0.75水平。下方支撑预估在通道底部0.7210，较大支撑料为0.7160and0.70Gateway.

Focus:
9month21day(three): New Zealand8月移民/短期访问者人数凈变化‧永久性/长期移民人数凈变化
9month22day(four)：纽西兰央行利率决定

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7700 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7210 – 0.7160 – 0.7000

CAD Cad - Repeated trends

加拿大央行总裁波洛兹周二表示，加拿大利率将在更长时间内维持在低位，因经济面临强大阻力，且企业投资弱于预期，但政府基础设施建设支出将提振经济增长。波洛兹称，鉴于目前的低息环境，企业需调整对投资回报的预期。波洛兹的讲话表明，加拿大央行仍将按兵不动，即便经济难以获得动能。波洛兹表示，经济继续受到强大不利因素的伤害，需刺激性货币政策来加以反制，并朝满载产能更进一步；但他希望企业和政府都来承担激励增长之责。波洛兹表示企业投资一直比预期疲软，因为一些企业在决定一项投资是否值得进行时，并未考虑到低利率环境。他呼吁这些企业调整预期。他指出，尽管企业对于未来需求不确定，但也不应预期可获得金融危机之前那般水准的回报。

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Canada7Monthly wholesale trade rate

Related news
央行总裁称低利率将维持更长时间，政府支出将提振经济

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)