Swiss franc : 瑞士上周数据强化升息预期 ▼ (12month3day)

Focus:
•上周公布GDP增长维持强劲
•上周公布通膨数据支撑加息预期
•图表指标转弱

瑞士上周公布的通膨和经济成长数据均高于预期，重燃了瑞士央行12月升息的风险。数据显示，瑞士11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)增幅跳升至逾六年来最高 位，因第三季经济成长意外强劲。11Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Growth compared to the previous month0.5%Growth compared to the same period last year1.8%。瑞士第三季国内生产总值(GDP)Quarterly growth rate 则为连续第三季成长0.8%。

波浪理论分析，瑞郎有机会刚运行完大型上升浪的第(IV)浪内(B)Within the waves(e)浪，并开始大型上升浪的第(IV)浪内(C)浪。瑞郎自2000year10month 开始展开长期大型上升浪，由2000year10月的低位1.8308to2001year1月的高位1.5895为大型上升浪的第(I)Waves,1.5895to2001year 7月的低位1.8184为大型上升浪的第(II)Waves,1.8184to2001year9月的高位1.5110为大型上升浪的第(III)Within the waves1Stretching waves, 1.5110to2002year1月的低位1.7229为大型的第(III)Within the waves2Stretching waves,1.7229to2003year5月的高位1.2777为大型的第 (III)Within the waves3Stretching waves,1.2777to2003year8月的低位1.4276为大型的第(III)Within the waves4Stretching waves,1.4276to2004year12Of High order1.1283为大型的第(III)Within the waves5伸延浪，即整个大型的第(III)浪在此完结。由1.1283to28-02-2006Low order of1.3235 为大型的第(IV)Within the waves(A)Waves,1.3235开始为大型的第(IV)Within the waves(B)浪，并以三角型运行。即由1.3235to05-05-2006的高位 1.1919For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves(a)Waves, and1.1919to13-10-2006Low order of1.2769For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves (b)Waves,1.2769to05-12-2006的高位1.1878For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves(c)Waves,1.1878to13-06-2007的低 position1.2468For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)Within the waves(d)Waves,1.2468to23-11-2007的最高位1.0883For the large section(IV)Within the waves(B)浪内 of(e)浪，并以突破三角型及升穿第(III)浪顶来结束大型第(IV)Within the waves(B)浪。而1.0833至现在为大型第(IV)Within the waves(C)浪，预料此大 型第(IV)Within the waves(C)浪将以次一级伸延浪运行。故末来数星期，瑞郎将有望在1.09-1.17之间组织运行次一级伸延浪。

走势方面，经历了长达个半月之连绵升势后，上周则见全面回软，低位曾触及1.1326。瑞郎之回落亦令一众技术指标转淡，以至MACD指标亦见初步显示出 走弱讯号；另外，5天平均线亦见与10天平均线已初步形成利淡交，以至上周五瑞郎更失守关键之1.12关口，更显瑞郎之疲势。预计往后较大支持可留意50 Balance moving average1.1510水平；若以gold比率计算，50%回调为1.14水平，至于扩展至61.8%You can see that1.1515水平。以保历加通道所见，较近之20 日通道底部见于1.1490；另外，瑞郎于10月份曾遇阻力于1.16关口，至今亦可反观成关键支持参考。瑞郎即市较近阻力则可留意5Balance moving average 1.1125and10Balance moving average1.1090Horizontal.

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )