Crossing the Sea 2016year8month31day

纵Henghuihai 2016year8month31day

Focus this week:
8month31day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A8Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A7Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

9month1day(Thursday)
U.S.A8monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
美国第二季单位劳工成本修订
美国第二季非农业生产力
U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A7Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A8monthISMManufacturing Index

9month2day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A7Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A8monthISM-纽约商业活动指数
U.S.A7Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A7Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Italy8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧forecast-0.2%‧Previous value-1.9%
17：00 Italy8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value-0.2%
17：00 Italy8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
17：00 Italy8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value-0.1%
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
17：00 eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast10.0%‧Previous value10.1%
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value530.1
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value2,355.2
20：15 U.S.A8monthADPChanges in private employment positions‧Forecast increase17.5Ten thousand‧Previous value increase17.9Ten thousand
20：30 Canada6Monthly Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value-0.6%
20：30 Canada's Q2 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Seasonal rate‧Previous value+0.6%
20：30 Canada's Q2 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Month on month annual rate‧forecast-1.5%‧Previous value+2.4%
21：45 U.S.A8Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast54.0‧Previous value55.8
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.2%



News of the Week

U.S.A7Monthly personal income increased compared to the previous month0.4%
U.S.A7Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)物价指数较前月持平
U.S.A7monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year0.8%
U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.6%
U.S.A7月个人支出较前月增加0.3%

芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯：低利率料将持续很长时间



8month30day
LondongoldMorning order price:1318.85
London gold afternoon fixing price:1318.15



Today's Introduction

美国芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯周三表示，他愈来愈确信，美国经济增速已永久性放缓，这将使美国利率继续长期维持低档。埃文斯认为，美国人口老化及生产率增速放缓，造成利率没有什么理由快速调升或升至高位。埃文斯的看法，等于是支持了哈佛大学教授萨默斯(Larry Summers)的“长期停滞”理论。埃文斯表示，对于低增长的预期，已经深植于企业及投资行为，即使通胀率意外上升，美联储升息速度被迫高于目前预期，长期利率也不太可能出现急升。埃文斯今年在美联储政策会议上没有表决权，他一向被视为美联储最直言不讳的鸽派之一，他通常支持尽可能延后升息，以促进就业及投资。虽然埃文斯在预备讲稿中并未表达有关美联储应何时升息的看法，但他的论述暗示支持再耐心观察。他周三表示，如果通胀率意外上升，美联储应该可以动用远比急升利率更温和的手段来压抑通胀。



XAU London Gold - 黄金呈现技术超卖

伦敦黄金价周二触及两个月低位1308.65，周三稍作回顺，投资者静候本周五公布的非农就业报告，期望从中寻找美国联邦储备理事会(FED)升息时机的线索。美国8Monthly consumer confidence rises11个月高位，家庭对就业市场更加乐观，进一步显示美国经济在经历了步履蹒跚的上半年后正重拾动能。美联储主席耶伦上周五表示，近几个月升息的可能性增强，但未明确说明行动的具体时间。此外，美联储副主席费希尔(Stanley Fischer)周二受访时表示，美国就业市场接近充分就业状态，美联储的加息步伐将取决于经济的表现。周五将公布的美国8月非农就业报告及其它数据，或将强化来自耶伦与其它联储官员的强硬信息。

As seen in the technical chart5月底低位1199.60to7month6Daily high1374.91的累积涨幅计算，其38.2%and50%的回调目标为1308and1287美元，而周二低位则已触近1308，并于周三早盘稍作反弹，随着RSI及随机指数自超卖区域回升，近两周的跌势可能已接近尾声，慎防短期会出现反扑。阻力预估在1322and1331For materials with high resistance1348水平。下方关注的支持则是7month21Daily low1310美元，假若后市明确跌破此区，则会形成一组双顶型态，而此区亦成为颈线位置，跌破后延伸幅度预料可至100Balance moving average1296Horizontal to1279。

London Gold8month31day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1305 – 1322
Resistance level:1331 – 1348
Support bit:1296 – 1279

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month1Day - 964.03ton
8month2Day - 969.97ton
8month3Day - 969.65ton
8month4Day - 973.21ton
8month5Day - 980.34ton
8month8Day - 973.80ton
8month9Day - 972.62ton
8month10Day - 972.62ton
8month11Day - 972.32ton
8month12Day - 960.45ton
8month15Day - 960.45ton
8month16Day - 962.23ton
8month17Day - 957.78ton
8month18Day - 955.99ton
8month19Day - 955.99ton
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year8month4day)

Global:32803.5ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1823.3ton
Russia(7)：1498.7ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价呈盘整态势

伦敦白银方面，自上周走势开始呈盘底阶段，最低见于本周一的18.36美元，但随后快速反弹而受阻19美元关口，预料短期下跌动能已为减弱，并随着出现反扑。预料阻力为19.10and19.60Further, we will see that20.10美元。至于下方支持预估在100Balance moving average18.20，较大支持见于17.70and17.30USD.

London Silver8month31day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.10 – 19.10
Resistance level:19.60 – 20.10
Support bit:17.70 – 17.30

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month1Day - 10915.95ton
8month2Day - 10911.57ton
8month3Day - 10911.57ton
8month4Day - 10911.57ton
8month5Day - 10911.57ton
8month8Day - 10941.12ton
8month9Day - 10941.12ton
8month10Day - 10941.12ton
8month11Day - 10941.12ton
8month12Day - 10941.12ton
8month15Day - 10941.12ton
8month16Day - 10941.12ton
8month17Day - 10988.39ton
8month18Day - 11056.34ton
8month19Day - 11056.34ton
8month22Day - 11159.74ton
8month23Day - 11159.74ton
8month24Day - 11159.74ton
8month25Day - 11100.66ton
8month26Day - 11100.66ton
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton

EUR euro - 摆脱整理区间

周二公布的乐观数据扶助美元扩大涨幅。世界大型企业研究会(世企研/Conference Board)The United States8Monthly consumer confidence rises11个月高位；另一项数据显示6月房价升幅放缓，但涨势可能仍足以提振家庭财富。投资者将瞩目于周三公布的ADP就业数据以及芝加哥采购经理人指数(PMI)。

欧元兑美元走势，图表走势所见，若汇价重登100antenna1.1215上方，则有望重拾涨势。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考，重要阻力指向1.15水平。下方较大支持则预估在250Balance moving average1.1110，进一步则以1.09为重要依据。

Focus:
Wednesday: Italy7Monthly unemployment rate‧薪资指数‧Italy8monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value‧eurozone8monthHICPinitial value‧eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate
Thursday: Italy8monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany8monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
周五：意大利第二季GDPFinal value‧eurozone7monthPPI

Related news
Germany7Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year3.8%
France7月消费者支出较6月意外降0.2%为连续第四个月下降
France8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year0.4%
Germany7月实质零售销售较前月增加1.7%
Germany7月实质零售销售较上年同期减少1.5%
Germany7Monthly basisILO标准计算的经季节调整就业人口增加4.1ten thousand people

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1215 – 1.1345 – 1.1432
support 1.1110 – 1.0900



JPY yen - 日本数据低迷，央行存放宽政策压力

日本疲弱的国内数据提升了日本央行进一步放宽政策的前景，日本7月工业生产增长陷入停滞，突显出工厂生产活动的脆弱，也不及分析师原本预期的增长0.8%。但周二公布的数据显示，7月日本家庭支出跌幅低于预期，失业率触及20年低点，为决策者带来一些希望。日本央行审议委员布野幸利周三表示，央行将充分利用现有政策工具，以确保国内家庭和公司彻底消除通缩心态。

图表走势所见，美元兑日圆上周大致在100关口附近上下徘徊，至周五才见显著波动，升见至接近102水平，延至本周一升见102.40水平。图表上可见到汇价已突破三角区间，亦可视为延伸自七月的下降趋向线，突破此区后，应可见汇价重新上扬，延展目标料为50Balance moving average102.70and104Horizontal, further visible100Balance moving average105.60。支持位则回看101.60and100Gateway.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan7Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧日本第二季商业资本支出年率‧Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI
Friday: Japan8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index

Related news
穆迪确认日本评级为A1Looking forward to stability

Japan7月家庭支出同比减少0.5%
Japan7月零售销售同比下滑0.2%
Japan7The monthly unemployment rate has decreased3.0%, creating21Annual low

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 101.70 – 104.00 – 105.60
support 101.60 – 100.00 – 99.20*



GBP pound - Continuation of disputes and disputes

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元近月处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，下延目标将看至1.28and1.26Horizontal. The upper resistance material is50Balance moving average1.33，此区同时亦为下降趋向线位置，破位料可望英镑重新踏上升轨，目标可看至1.3370and1.3480Horizontal.

Focus:
8month30day(two): UK7Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
8month31day(three): UK8monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧Nationwidehousing price
9month1day(four): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
9month2day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI

Related news
NATIONWIDE: UK8Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.6%, up from the same period last year5.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3370 – 1.3480
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2800 – 1.2600



CHF Swiss franc - beautiful/瑞守稳0.95brace

上周汇价显著反弹，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，美元兑瑞郎或仍见上升动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9840and1.00关口。下方支持仍会瞩目于0.95水平，下一级关键在5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
瑞士第二季非农就业岗位较上年同期增0.6%to490.3Ten thousand
Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标为99.8
UBS7月瑞士消费指数升至1.32spot

Focus:
9month1day(four)Switzerland7Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9840 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 短线呈动荡

澳元周三在一个月低位附近交投，此前美国公布乐观数据，加大了美联储近期升息的可能性。澳元兑美元周二触及8month2The lowest point in recent days0.7500. since8月稍早触及约三个半月高点0.7760美元以来，澳元一直维持下行趋势。美元周二获得提振，因数据显示美国8Monthly consumer confidence rises11个月高位，且6月房价涨势虽然放缓但仍强劲。周三稍晚将公布的美国ADP民间就业岗位及芝加哥采购经理人指数(PMI)数据，将有助于外界对周五的非农就业报告做出更准确的预期。在澳洲，焦点将放在周四的资本支出和零售销售数据上。

图表走势分析，由2014year7Monthly high0.9505to2016year1Monthly low0.6827，其累积跌幅的38.2%反弹幅度1023点，亦即为0.7850，相当接近今年4Monthly high0.7836。澳元随后展开一段〝V〞型走势，先是下滑至5month24Daily low0.7145，之后又重新反弹，延至上周高见0.7760，因此，向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口；进一步目标预计为0.8165, for50%的反弹水准。在短期走势则需留意，澳元上周触及高位后出现回落，并促使相对强弱指标及随机指数亦已呈回落状态，短线仍存在调整压力。关键支撑见于0.75，进一步调整幅度料会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380Horizontal.

Related news
Australia7月经季节调整后建筑许可较前月跳涨11.3%, increased compared to the same period last year3.1%

Focus:
9month1day(four)：澳洲第二季资本支出季率‧建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出‧Australia7Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7850 – 0.8000 – 0.8165
support 0.7500 – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽西兰央行总裁惠勒：无需很快连续降息

纽元兑美元方面，图表见相对强弱指标及随机数据回落，示意纽元可能正步入调整阶段，向下测试一短期上升趋向线于0.72水平，破位将确立回调走势；以自五月底起始的累积涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整目标将达至0.7095and0.7015Next level can be seen in0.6935。上方阻力预估在0.7350and100Monthly average line0.7460Horizontal, the key lies in0.75Horizontal.

Focus:
8month30day(two): New Zealand7Monthly Building Permit
8month31day(three): New Zealand8monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
9month1day(four)：纽西兰第二季贸易条件季率        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7350 – 0.7460 – 0.7500
support 0.7200* – 0.7095 – 0.7015 – 0.6935



CAD Cad - 油价下挫打压加元

美元兑加元周一重返1.30水平，脱离上周五低位1.2818。图表走势所见，当前的临界点为1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458。然而，亦需留意相对强弱指及随机指数已出现回升，美元短线仍有回弹倾向。预估阻力在1.30and1.3080Greater resistance can be seen in200Balance moving average1.3280Horizontal.

Focus:
8month31day(three): Canada6monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada Season 2GDP
9month1day(four): Canada8monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
9month2day(five): Canada7Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧加拿大第二季劳动生产率季率

Related news
Canada6Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.7%，为连续第三个月增长        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3000 – 1.3080 – 1.3280
support 1.2920 – 1.2760 – 1.2650* – 1.2500






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

The ups and downs in the world, as well as the many blessings, grudges, and grudges that are portrayed in life, are destined but inseparable, and the source and tail are difficult to meet; Love without fate, hasty and distant;